Projected state revenue through 2029 down by $845 million
OLYMPIA – Washington’s projected Near General Fund revenue collections through 2029 decreased by $845 million overall from the November 2024 forecast, according to estimates released today by the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.
The forecast is comprised of revenue estimates for the current biennium (2023–25) which ends June 30, 2025, the next biennium (2025–27), and the subsequent biennium (2027–29).
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Biennium
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Forecast revenue
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Change from Nov. forecast
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% change
|
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2023–25 (current)
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$66.44B
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$54.4M
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+0.08%
|
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2025–27
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$70.95B
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-$479.0M
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-0.67%
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2027–29
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$76.42B
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-$420.2M
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-0.55%
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Projected collections for the 2023–25 state budget increased from the November forecast by around $54 million to $66.44 billion.
This forecast also estimates revenue for the next biennium (2025–27) at around $70.95 billion, a decrease of $479 million from the November forecast.
The forecast revenue for the 2027–29 biennium is reduced by around $420 million, to $76.42 billion.
According to the forecast council, the changes in projections are primarily the result of reduced forecasts for sales tax and business and occupation tax, as well as lower interest income. These declines are partially offset by stronger capital gains and estate taxes.
Quotes
“Washington’s revenue forecast has increased slightly for the current fiscal year but is down in out-years compared with the November forecast,” said Dave Reich, forecast council executive director. “This change reflects lower actual revenues and a generally lower forecast for Washington personal income, employment and building permits that likely mean lower revenues in the future compared to last fall.”
"The latest revenue forecast confirms that our financial outlook remains challenging,” said K.D. Chapman-See, director of the Office of Financial Management. “OFM remains committed to supporting Governor Ferguson’s efforts alongside the Legislature to develop sustainable solutions that keep essential services like education, health care, and public safety running effectively and ensure the well-being of all Washingtonians."
Why the revenue forecast matters
The forecasts for Near General Fund revenue collections signal the availability of resources for state services. State law requires a budget that is balanced over four years. The Near General Fund accounts for most of that state operating budget.
A guide to the Washington state budget process can be found on the OFM website.
Transportation revenue projection up by $284 million
The revenue forecast for the transportation budget was also released today, showing an increase of $284 million in projected revenues through June 2029, or 1.34% relative to the November 2024 forecast. This is largely driven by higher projections for the motor vehicle fuel tax and ferry revenue.
|
Biennium
|
Forecast transportation revenue
|
Change from Nov. forecast
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% change
|
|
2023–25 (current)
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$6.85B
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+$49.2M
|
+0.7%
|
|
2025–27
|
$7.10B
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+$113.7M
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+1.6%
|
|
2027–29
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$7.24B
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+$121.4M
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+1.7%
|
What’s next
- Legislative budget writers expect to release their supplemental spending plans soon.
- April 27 is the last day allowed under the state constitution for regular session this year.
- The next revenue forecast is required by statute to be completed by June 27, 2025. Revenue review meetings are broadcast on TVW, with scheduling details available beforehand on the ERFC website.
About the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council: The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council supports statewide goals by accurately forecasting economic activity and state tax revenue for Washington state. ERFC is comprised of both legislative and executive members and the State Treasurer. Four times a year the organization adopts a bipartisan revenue forecast that is then used to build the state operating and transportation budgets. The ERFC is also charged with providing the state budget outlook to increase transparency and to promote state government financial stability.
About the Office of Financial Management:
The Office of Financial Management provides vital information, fiscal services and policy support that the governor, Legislature and state agencies need to serve the people of Washington.
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