Notice of Introduction for Senate Bill 5204 - Update: 10 Year Analysis Complete
Office of the Governor / Office of Financial Management sent this bulletin at 05/14/2021 02:33 PM PDT
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SB 5204, titled AN ACT Relating to health care financing and development of the whole Washington health trust to ensure all Washington residents can enroll in nonprofit health insurance coverage providing an essential set of health benefits, including
medical, dental, vision, and prescription drug benefits, has been introduced in the Senate. The Office of Financial Management has identified this bill as requiring a ten-year projection of increased cost to the taxpayers or affected fee payers.
Ten-year projection:
|
Fiscal |
Capital Gains Tax |
Employee Health Assessment |
Health Security Assessment |
Sole Proprietor Health Assessment |
Total |
|
|
|
||||||
|
2022 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
|
2023 |
1,535,000,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$ 1,535,000,000 |
|
|
2024 |
1,637,000,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
$ 1,637,000,000 |
|
|
2025 |
1,674,000,000 |
0 |
35,800,000 |
8,400,000 |
$ 1,718,200,000 |
|
|
2026 |
1,727,000,000 |
2,152,600,000 |
9,187,900,000 |
9,300,000 |
$ 13,076,800,000 |
|
|
2027 |
1,783,000,000 |
5,395,700,000 |
23,303,900,000 |
87,500,000 |
$ 30,570,100,000 |
|
|
2028 |
1,848,000,000 |
5,875,700,000 |
25,361,400,000 |
91,600,000 |
$ 33,176,700,000 |
|
|
2029 |
1,918,000,000 |
6,262,600,000 |
27,249,700,000 |
149,100,000 |
$ 35,579,400,000 |
|
|
2030 |
1,987,000,000 |
6,625,000,000 |
29,015,900,000 |
202,300,000 |
$ 37,830,200,000 |
|
|
2031 |
2,061,000,000 |
6,947,000,000 |
30,424,900,000 |
211,800,000 |
$ 39,644,700,000 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Total: |
$ 16,170,000,000 |
$ 33,258,600,000 |
$ 144,579,500,000 |
$ 760,000,000 |
$ 194,768,100,000 |
|
Employment Security Department:
The totality of premium collection described in Part 1 of the bill and collection of assessments described in Part 2 of the bill is indeterminate.
Part II of the bill specifies that ESD will begin collecting premiums, established in section 107 and deposited into the benefits account described in section 123 of the act, on 3/1/22. The premium rate is to be established by the Board of Trustees by 11/1/22. Since the rate is not defined, ESD is unable to estimate cash receipts resulting from premium collections. Section 202 specifies that ESD will collect a Health Security Assessment of 10.5% of an employee’s wages less the employer's health care expenditures for that employee during the same reporting period. Section 203 specifies that ESD will collect a Personal Health Assessment of 2% of employees aggregate adjusted quarterly payroll. ESD is unable to begin collecting premiums by 3/1/22 and assumes in all fiscal estimates that premium collection will begin on the same timeline as the Health Security and Personal Health Assessments-- employers begin collecting premiums 1/1/26 and submitting remittance to ESD quarterly beginning 4/1/26.
The cash receipts estimate for the Health Security and Personal Health assessments are based on UI wage projection data. Since data is not available with which to estimate the impact on receipts, the estimates exclude the impact of employees/employers who are exempt from UI that will not be exempt from this program, employers who are granted hardship exemptions, employers who provide health plans and request waivers, individuals who are wholly exempt from the program (including individuals under age 19 and eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid), individuals who include their spouses in the premium assessment, out of state employers
who choose to collect and remit premiums for employees who are residents of WA, or self-employed individuals who are required to participate.
Chart 1 Baseline data from Total Wages (Unemployment Insurance Data)
Calendar Year Total Wages (UI covered employers) Calendar Year Health Security Assessment (10.5 percent) Personal Health Assessment (2%)
2022 $178,006,653,724
2023 $183,246,079,301
2024 $186,911,000,887 2024 19,625,655,093 3,738,220,018
2025 $190,649,220,904 2025 20,018,168,195 3,812,984,418
2026 $194,462,205,322 2026 20,418,531,559 3,889,244,106
2027 $198,351,449,429 2027 20,826,902,190 3,967,028,989
2028 $202,318,478,417 2028 21,243,440,234 4,046,369,568
2029 $206,364,847,986 2029 21,668,309,039 4,127,296,960
2030 $210,492,144,946 2030 22,101,675,219 4,209,842,899
2031 $214,701,987,844 2031 22,543,708,724 4,294,039,757
2032 $218,996,027,601 2032 22,994,582,898 4,379,920,552
2033 $223,375,948,153 2033 23,454,474,556 4,467,518,963
Chart 2 Assessed and Collected by fiscal year for Whole WA Health Trust
Fiscal Year Health Security Personal Health Health Security Personal Health Total Collected
Assessment Assessed Assessment Assessed Assessment Collected Assessment Collected
FY24 9,812,827,547 1,869,110,009 4,906,413,773 934,555,004 5,840,968,778
FY25 19,821,911,644 3,775,602,218 19,723,783,369 3,756,911,118 23,480,694,486
FY26 20,218,349,877 3,851,114,262 20,118,259,036 3,832,049,340 23,950,308,376
FY27 20,622,716,874 3,928,136,548 20,520,624,217 3,908,690,327 24,429,314,544
FY28 21,035,171,212 4,006,699,278 20,931,036,701 3,986,864,134 24,917,900,835
FY29 21,455,874,636 4,086,833,264 21,349,657,435 4,066,601,416 25,416,258,851
FY30 21,884,992,129 4,168,569,929 21,776,650,584 4,147,933,445 25,924,584,028
FY31 22,322,691,971 4,251,941,328 22,212,183,595 4,230,892,113 26,443,075,709
FY32 22,769,145,811 4,336,980,154 22,656,427,267 4,315,509,956 26,971,937,223
FY33 23,224,528,727 4,423,719,758 23,109,555,813 4,401,820,155 27,511,375,967
Things this doesn't account for:
-This is UI- covered employers
-dually-eligible medicaid & medicare not in the law
-Department of Health:
The cash receipts impact of this bill is indeterminate.
The maximum monthly premium enrollee must pay for the “essential†healthcare benefits provided by this Trust is $200 per-member-per-month (Sec. 111(3)). The bill sets forth criteria that would lower or eliminate the monthly premium for certain individuals based on age, dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid, tribal affiliation, employment status, and/or financial need (Sec. 111(1)(a) & (b), (2), (4), (5), (6)).
To estimate the amount of cash receipts, the department would need to know the number of individuals who will enroll in the Trust and how many individuals that enroll meet the criteria that would lower or eliminate their monthly premium.
Ten-year projection prepared in consultation with the following agencies:
Department of Revenue
Department of Health
Employment Security Department
Bill sponsors and contact information:
Senator Bob Hasegawa, Prime Sponsor
Democrat
(360) 786-7616
bob.hasegawa@leg.wa.gov
Senator Patty Kuderer
Democrat
(360) 786-7694
patty.kuderer@leg.wa.gov
Senator Marko Liias
Democrat
(360) 786-7640
Marko.Liias@leg.wa.gov
Senator Liz Lovelett
Democrat
(360) 786-7678
Liz.Lovelett@leg.wa.gov
Senator Joe Nguyen
Democrat
(360) 786-7667
NGUYEN_JO@leg.wa.gov
Senator Derek Stanford
Democrat
(360) 786-7600
Derek.Stanford@leg.wa.gov
Senator Claire Wilson
Democrat
(360) 786-7658
WILSON_CL@leg.wa.gov
Legislative Bill Information Website:
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/
Initiative 960 Website: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/tax/default.asp