COVID-19 Update, September 14, 2020
Good afternoon! The state Department of Health (http://www.doh.wa.gov/) wants to keep you as informed as possible about continuing developments surrounding COVID-19 as well as guidance and resources you can share with employees, clients, or customers.
Using computer models to learn about COVID-19 transmission
We are staying apart from our loved ones and covering our faces in public so fewer people will die of COVID-19. So is it working? Is our curve flattening? How do we know if fewer people are dying or getting sick?
Modelers at the Institute for Disease Modeling, Microsoft AI for Health, the University of Washington, and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center are using public health data and computer models to help us answer these questions.
You are familiar with computer models in your daily life, and what you already know about them is that they are often wrong. If the weather report tells you on a Monday that there will be no rain on the weekend, you will probably keep checking the weather report, because you know the forecast changes. Why does the forecast change?
Because the weather changes, and we put this updated information into the forecasting models, and then the predictions change.
We’re a lot better at forecasting the weather than we are at predicting novel coronaviruses or human behavior. But, because we keep learning more about COVID-19 and how it is spread, the COVID-19 models are getting better all the time. Here’s how they work:
- The modelers tell the computer program how many people have been tested, how many people were positive for COVID-19, and how many people have died of the disease in Washington.
- The modelers assume that all people either:
- Are susceptible to catching COVID-19. (This is, by far, most of us.)
- Have COVID-19, but don’t have symptoms and are not contagious yet.
- Have COVID-19, and are contagious, whether they have symptoms or not.
- Have recovered from COVID-19 and are not contagious.
- Then, they ask the computer to account for the fact that fewer people get tested over the weekends, sometimes it takes a few days to get test results, and testing is not easily available everywhere in the state.
- They make sure the model describes the data we have for the recent past reasonably well. If it describes the past reasonably well, we’re more confident in what it tells us about the future.
- And then they ask the models to make some predictions about what is happening now and into the near future.
In their most recent weekly report, the modelers described an overall flattening in the curve describing transmission of COVID-19 in Washington, with some hints of a trend towards decreasing transmission. Different counties had different patterns of transmission. In some counties transmission is sharply decreasing, and in others it is increasing. In some counties (like King County) transmission was stable or flat.
The models also predicted that this year, between 3,000 and 3,600 Washingtonians will die from COVID-19.
Still, sometimes forecasts are wrong. We have already lost more than 2,000 Washingtonians to COVID-19. We do not have to lose 1,600 more people in the next several months. We can wear our cloth face coverings. We can keep our get-togethers very small and outdoors. We can stay six feet apart. We can save hundreds of lives.
Numbers. The latest numbers are on our webpage. As of 11:59 p.m. on September 13, 80,138 people in Washington have tested positive for COVID-19. Of those, 7,098 people had to be hospitalized, and 2,006 people (or 2.5%) have died of the disease. More COVID-19 data can be found on the DOH website and in the state’s risk assessment dashboard.
Practice compassion. Check in with your loved ones—how are they breathing in this smoky air? Remind them to stay inside and be still until the smoke clears. Keep watching the Washington Smoke Information blog for smoke and air quality forecasts. Remember, forecasts change all the time.
Stay well,
Lauren
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