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Dear Colleague,
Welcome to the April 6 briefing of the 2021 Spring Meetings.
Today we spotlight the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (starting now) and Global Financial Stability Report; governor talks with officials from Saudi Arabia, Croatia, Brazil and Thailand; a capacity development talk that focuses on COVID-19 spending transparency; and seminars on averting a debt trap and global economic recovery. On that note, let's get started.
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Today's media partners: The Banker provides economic and financial intelligence for the world's financial sector. Global Risk Regulator, a service from The Banker, provides insightful reporting across the regulatory landscape.
TODAY'S AGENDA (TUESDAY, APRIL 6)
Speaker: Fahad Almubarak, Governor of the Saudi Central Bank // Moderator: Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF.
Speaker: Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank // Moderator: Alfred Kammer, Director of the European Department, IMF.
Speaker: Roberto de Oliveira Campos Neto, Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil // Moderator: Alejandro Werner, Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, IMF.
Speakers: Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist and Director of the IMF Research Department; Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, IMF Research Department; and Malhar Nabar, Division Chief, IMF Research Department // Moderator: Raphael Anspach, Senior Communications Officer, IMF.
Speakers: Laura Gores, Economist at the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department; Juan Pablo Guerrero, Network Director of the Global Initiative for Fiscal Transparency; Roxana Melani Rodriguez, Vice Minister of Finance and Budget, Honduras; and Gerardo Una, Senior Economist at the Public Financial Management Division (M2) of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF // Moderator: Martin Caudron, Communications Officer, IMF.
Speaker: Tobias Adrian, IMF Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department; Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director, IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department; Evan Papageorgiou, Deputy Division Chief, IMF Monetary and Capital Markets // Moderator: Randa Elnagar, Senior Communications Officer, IMF.
Speakers: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF; Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge; Vera Songwe, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations // Moderator: Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times.
Speakers: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF; David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group; Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary // Moderator: Larry Madowo, BBC North America Correspondent.
Speaker: Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Governor of the Bank of Thailand // Moderator: Kenneth Kang, Deputy Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, IMF.
MANAGING DIVERGENT RECOVERIES
"It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath writes in a new blog accompanying today's release of the World Economic Outlook.
"Nonetheless, the future presents daunting challenges," Gopinath continues. "The pandemic is yet to be defeated and virus cases are accelerating in many countries. Recoveries are also diverging dangerously across and within countries, as economies with slower vaccine rollout, more limited policy support, and more reliant on tourism do less well."
The numbers: We are now projecting a stronger recovery for the global economy compared with our January forecast, with growth projected to be 6 percent in 2021 (0.5 percentage point upgrade) and 4.4 percent in 2022 (0.2 percentage point upgrade), after an estimated historic contraction of -3.3 percent in 2020.
Click here to watch the press conference and read the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report.
FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS
Later today, watch for the 10:30 a.m. release of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report and an accompanying blog by IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian. Click here to see the press conference and read the blog and report, which finds that an asynchronous and divergent recovery could put financial stability at risk.
AVERTING THE COVID-19 DEBT TRAP
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will discuss at an event today how tackling debt vulnerabilities is critical to prevent divergent recoveries. A panel that includes Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and Vera Songwe, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations will explore ways to contain debt risks through better debt architecture and transparency and how global cooperation can help. The seminar begins at 12 p.m. Watch it here.
TOMORROW'S AGENDA (WEDNESDAY, APRIL 7)
Speakers: Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department; Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF // Moderator: Ting Yan, Communications Officer, IMF.
Speakers: Mark Carney, United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance; Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of FInance, Indonesia.
Speakers: Sharmini Coorey, Director, Institute for Capacity Development, IMF; Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director, IMF; Valerie Cerra, Assistant Director and Division Chief, IMF; Maksym Ivanyna, Economist, IMF; Nathalie Pouokam, Economist, IMF; Nikola Spatafora, Senior Economist, IMF.
Speaker: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF // Moderator: Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department, IMF.
Speakers: Habtamu Fuje, African Department, IMF; Rasmane Ouedraogo, African Department, IMF; Ervin Prifiti, Research Department, IMF; Christian Bogmans, Research Department, IMF; Tim Willems, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF.
Speakers: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF; John Kerry, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate // Moderator: Becky Anderson, Anchor, CNN International.
RECAP OF YESTERDAY
In a new blog by the IMF's Phillipp Engler, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher, based on the analytical chapter 4 of our latest World Economic Outlook, they write that the reason behind rising interest rates in advanced economies matters when it comes to the impact on emerging markets. When the reason is good news about US jobs or COVID-19 vaccines or even news about higher US inflation rates, it can have a benign impact on emerging markets. However, when the reason is a rise in advanced economy interest rates driven by expectations of hawkish central bank actions, it can harm emerging market economies.
In a new blog by the IMF's Guillaume Chabert, Robert Gregory and Gaelle Pierre, based on a new policy paper, they write about funding the recovery of low-income countries after the COVID crisis. They estimate that low-income countries will need around $200 billion until 2025 to step up their response to the pandemic, and a further $250 billion to catch up with advanced economies. An additional $100 billion will be needed if risks identified in the baseline scenario materialize. Meeting these needs will require a coordinated, multifaceted, strong response.
Aurélia Nguyen, Managing Director of the COVAX Facility and Sabina Bhatia, Deputy Secretary of the IMF, discussed the challenges of vaccine procurement and distribution, and highlighted the need for international cooperation to secure global and equitable access to vaccines. "Right now, vaccine policy is the most important economic policy, and we need all hands on deck to boost production and ensure fairer distribution," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the event. Watch the full event by clicking here.
In governor talks on Monday, Lassané Kabore, Minister of Economy, Finance and Development of Burkina Faso, said the pandemic has made teleworking, remote filing of taxes, and remote payment all part of the work habit in public services. Nadia Calviño, Spain's Vice-President and Minister of Economy and Digitalization, said gender equality should be at the top of the agenda--not only for reasons of fairness, but also because we can close the potential growth gap if we manage to mobilize the talent of 100 percent of our population.
The IMF Executive Board on Monday extended debt service relief for 28 eligible low-income countries through October 15. The debt relief will help free up scarce financial resources for vital emergency health, social, and economic support to help with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The action will enable the disbursement of grants from the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust for all eligible debt service due to the IMF from the poorest and most vulnerable members.
RECAP OF LAST WEEK
In a new blog by Federico J. Díez, Romain Duval, Chiara Maggi and Nicola Pierri, based on new staff research, they explain how the pandemic has hit small and medium enterprises particularly hard, partly because they are predominant in some contact-intensive sectors like hotels, restaurants, and entertainment. They also suggest that policymakers take novel and swift action to alleviate a wave of insolvencies.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva set the stage for the Spring Meetings by discussing the future of the global economy at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations and moderated by CNN's Fareed Zakaria. Read the full speech or watch the 60-min discussion.
Read a blog, based on the analytical chapter 2 of our latest World Economic Outlook, about how countries can slowly heal the economic scars that will result from the crisis. Another blog based on analytical chapter 3 of our latest World Economic Outlook, explores how policies can lessen the pandemic’s harsh and unequal effects on workers.
Also, catch up on blogs covering analytical chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. A blog based on the analytical chapter 2 explains how the easing of financial conditions in response to an economic crisis tends to accelerate buildups in leverage or the ability to borrow, which could cause trouble down the line. Another blog, based on the analytical chapter 3, finds that pandemic's shift to working from home has clouded the outlook for commercial real estate and potentially threaten financial stability.
Finally, ahead of the release of the Fiscal Monitor this week, read a blog based on a new analytical chapter, that finds that inequality was a pre-existing condition that worsened COVID-19’s impact.
Click here to review the full rundown of last week.
HAVE YOUR SAY IN 60 SECONDS
📝 What do you think of the Spring Meetings and our newsletter coverage so far? Share your thoughts and feedback directly by answering this quick survey. Your comments will very much inform our agenda and coverage moving forward.
Sincerely,
IMF 2021 Spring Meetings Team
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