February 2020 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

The level of for-hire freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (137.2) was 2.8% below the all-time high level of 141.2 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. For more about TSI, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator.

The January index was revised to 136.9 from 137.4 in last month’s release.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for February. The passenger index is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to January 2019. As a result, the estimates have yet to fully account for the impact of the coronavirus. Air freight is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled. Water has also been estimated for the February freight index. The January passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI grew in February from January due to growth in air freight and significant growth in pipeline, and despite declines in rail carload, rail intermodal and water, and no change in trucking. The TSI increase took place against a background of mixed results in other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index increased 0.6% in February reflecting increases in utilities and manufacturing and a decrease in mining. Personal Income grew by 0.6% while housing starts decreased by 1.5%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down by 0.8 point to 50.1, indicating slower growth in the manufacturing sector. The ISM manufacturing index is based on a survey of 800 supply chain executives on production, orders, deliveries, and employment, while the Federal Reserve IP index is based on estimated physical output using a range of output measures that the Federal Reserve considers reliable. Comparisons between patterns in the ISM manufacturing and the Federal Reserve IP index should be done with caution.

Trend: The February increase in the Freight Index was the second in a row, increasing 0.4% since the start of 2020. It still has not surpassed the levels it has had in all months but one between September 2018 and November 2019. However, it remained above any level it had reached before September 2018. It has been essentially stable (declining by 0.5%) since then. The December 2019 index was 44.6% above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in February 2020 (137.2) were 44.6% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The February 2020 level was 2.8% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (141.2) (Table 1A).

Year-to-date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.4% in February compared to the end of 2019 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 12.4% in the five years from February 2015 and are up 30.3% in the 10 years from February 2010 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: February 2020 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.1% from February 2019 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2020 index is scheduled for May 13.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Indexes since August 2019

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2020

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2017-2020

Percent change from previous month

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2017-2020

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2011-2020

Percent change to February from December of the previous year

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent Change in the February Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2020 (February to February)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics