October 2017 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

BTS 58-17

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

BTS Contact: Dave Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568

 

                                                                                                                 

October 2017 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

 

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, reached an all-time high in October, rising 0.6 percent in October from September, after a one-month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The October 2017 index level (129.2) was 36.4 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

 

 

 

 

 

The level of for-hire freight shipments in October measured by the Freight TSI (129.2) reached an all-time high, 0.2 percent above the previous high reached in August (129.0) (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.  

 

The September index was revised to 128.4 from 129.2 in last month’s release. March was revised up slightly; all other months remained unchanged.

 

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.

 

Analysis: Significant increases in trucking, rail carloads, rail intermodal, and water led the October increase of 0.6 percent while air freight declined and pipeline was stable. The TSI increase took place against a background of strong results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index rose by 0.9 percent in October, with increases in manufacturing and utilities. Employment rose, Personal income grew and Housing Starts increased. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index declined to 58.7, indicating positive but decelerating growth.

 

Trend: The Freight TSI’s new all-time high of 129.2 in October was 0.2 percent above the previous all-time high set in August and 3.5 percent above the level of July 2016 (124.8), which was the highest level prior to 2017. October was the third all-time high in four months, and the fourth in six months. The four months from August to November 2017 were the four highest levels Freight TSI has ever attained. The Freight TSI was above 124.0 in every month of 2017, a level it exceeded in only two months prior to 2017. The increase of 0.6 percent in October offset the decline of 0.5 percent from August to September as revised, and followed increases in July and August. The total increase from June 2017 to October was 2.1 percent. The October index was 36.4 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

 

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in October 2017 (129.2) were 36.4 percent higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The October 2017 level reached its all-time high (Table 1A).

 

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 3.7 percent in October compared to the end of 2016 (Table 3).

 

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 17.2 percent in the five years from October 2012 and are up 16.6 percent in the 10 years from October 2007 (Table 5). 

 

Same month of previous year: October 2017 for-hire freight shipments were up 5.3 percent from October 2016 (Tables 4, 5).

 

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2017 index is scheduled for Jan. 10. 

 

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers fell 4.2 percent in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2017 level of 122.3 was 1.2 percent below the October 2016 level (Table 7). The index is up 7.9 percent in five years and up 5.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

 

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.9 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2017 level of 127.1 was 3.2 percent above the October 2016 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 14.3 percent in five years and up 12.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

 

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

 

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger  and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

 

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download. 

 

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since April 2017

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
April	124.5	-0.2	126.8	1.4	125.3	0.3
May	127.5	2.4	126.5	-0.2	127.3	1.6
June	126.6	-0.7	127.4	0.7	126.9	-0.3
July	128.8	1.7	127.2	-0.2	128.4	1.2
August	129.0	0.2	126.4	-0.6	128.3	-0.1
September	128.4	-0.5	127.6	0.9	128.2	-0.1
October	129.2	0.6	122.3	-4.2	127.1	-0.9

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding. 

 

 

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2017

Year		Month	Peak	Month	Bottom
2009		December	101.6	April	94.7
2013		November	118.9	January	114.2
2014		November	123.3	March	115.8
2015		December	123.1	December	120.8
2016		July	124.8	May	120.6
2017	(thru October)	October	129.2	January	124.4

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-1.8	-0.3	1.3	-0.2
February	1.8	-0.9	-0.8	1.4
March	1.4	1.2	-0.7	-1.2
April	0.5	-1.0	1.3	-0.2
May	0.4	0.4	-0.2	2.4
June	-0.7	-0.3	0.8	-0.7
July	0.5	0.3	1.5	1.7
August	0.7	0.2	-2.1	0.2
September	0.2	-0.2	-0.7	-0.5
October	0.7	0.3	1.2	0.6
November	0.9	-1.5	0.7
December	-0.2	-0.1	0.8

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2014-2017

	2014	2015	2016	2017
January	115.8	122.7	122.4	124.4
February	117.9	121.6	121.4	126.2
March	119.5	123.1	120.6	124.7
April	120.1	121.9	122.2	124.5
May	120.6	122.4	122.0	127.5
June	119.7	122.0	123.0	126.6
July	120.3	122.4	124.8	128.8
August	121.1	122.7	122.2	129.0
September	121.4	122.4	121.3	128.4
October	122.2	122.8	122.7	129.2
November	123.3	120.9	123.6
December	123.1	120.8	124.6

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2008-2017

Percent change to October from December of the previous year

Year	Freight	Passenger	Combined
2008	-3.0	-3.1	-3.0
2009	-1.9	-0.5	-1.5
2010	6.2	4.0	5.6
2011	2.5	1.9	2.4
2012	-4.3	-2.0	-3.6
2013	3.7	1.4	3.0
2014	3.6	2.2	3.2
2015	-0.2	3.2	0.9
2016	1.6	-0.5	0.9
2017	3.7	-2.2	1.8

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent Change in the October Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	October Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	107.4	-3.1
2009	98.5	-8.3
2010	107.9	9.5
2011	111.5	3.3
2012	110.2	-1.2
2013	116.4	5.6
2014	122.2	5.0
2015	122.8	0.5
2016	122.7	-0.1
2017	129.2	5.3

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2017 (October to October)

Since October . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI Percent change to October 2017	Passenger TSI Percent change to October 2017	Combined TSI Percent change to October 2017
2016	1	5.3	-1.2	3.2
2015	2	5.2	-1.8	2.9
2014	3	5.7	1.6	4.4
2013	4	11.0	4.1	8.8
2012	5	17.2	7.9	14.3
2011	6	15.9	6.2	12.8
2010	7	19.7	6.5	15.5
2009	8	31.2	11.3	24.7
2008	9	20.3	8.5	16.4
2007	10	16.6	5.1	12.8

                                                                                                                                                           

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

 

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	0.0	-0.6	-0.7	0.3
February	0.2	-0.8	1.0	-1.4
March	1.6	1.9	-1.8	1.1
April	-0.2	0.2	1.2	1.4
May	0.6	0.2	0.3	-0.2
June	-0.9	0.1	0.8	0.7
July	0.3	2.2	-0.6	-0.2
August	0.6	-1.6	-1.3	-0.6
September	-0.2	0.2	1.6	0.9
October	0.3	1.4	-1.0	-4.2
November	-0.5	-0.9	0.8
December	0.8	0.7	0.2

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the October Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	October Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	112.7	-3.2
2009	109.9	-2.5
2010	114.8	4.5
2011	115.2	0.3
2012	113.3	-1.6
2013	117.5	3.7
2014	120.4	2.5
2015	124.6	3.5
2016	123.8	-0.6
2017	122.3	-1.2

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

 

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2014-2017

Percent change from previous month

	2014	2015	2016	2017
	% Change	% Change	% Change	% Change
January	-1.3	-0.4	0.7	0.0
February	1.4	-0.8	-0.3	0.6
March	1.4	1.4	-1.0	-0.5
April	0.3	-0.7	1.2	0.3
May	0.4	0.4	0.1	1.6
June	-0.7	-0.2	0.7	-0.3
July	0.4	1.0	0.8	1.2
August	0.6	-0.4	-1.8	-0.1
September	0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.1
October	0.6	0.7	0.4	-0.9
November	0.5	-1.4	0.7
December	0.1	0.2	0.6

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

 

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the October Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	October Combined TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2008	109.2	-3.1
2009	101.9	-6.7
2010	110.0	7.9
2011	112.7	2.5
2012	111.2	-1.3
2013	116.8	5.0
2014	121.7	4.2
2015	123.5	1.5
2016	123.1	-0.3
2017	127.1	3.2

 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.