BTS Statistics Release: September 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

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BTS 57-16

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

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BTS Statistics Release: September 2016 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.6 percent in September from August, falling for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The September 2016 index level (121.5) was 28.2 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Fig1

The level of freight shipments in September measured by the Freight TSI (121.5) was 2.6 percent below the all-time high level of 124.7 in July 2016 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The August index was revised down slightly to 122.2 from 122.3 in last month’s release. The July index was revised up slightly to 124.7 from 124.5.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to –month comparisons.

Analysis: The September Freight TSI fell 0.6 percent due to declines in trucking, pipeline and rail intermodal, while air freight, water, and rail carloads rose. The September decrease took place as the economy was relatively stable. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index rose only 0.1 percent in September, though employment grew by 161,000 jobs and housing starts were 1.9 percent above the August level.

The 0.7 percent third quarter decrease matched slow growth in Industrial Production, which remained unchanged in the third quarter, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth quickened to 2.9 percent in the third quarter. GDP growth in the second and third quarters outpaced the 1.5 percent growth of TSI over those two quarters, after two earlier quarters when GDP grew less than 1 percent and TSI declined.

Trend: The Freight TSI decreased 0.6 percent in September following a 2.0 percent decline August, for a total decline of 2.6 percent over the two months. These two months of decreases followed four months of consecutive monthly increases, leaving the Freight TSI at its lowest point since March. The September level was 0.1 percent below the level at the start of 2016.

The third quarter decrease of 0.7 percent followed an increase of 2.3 percent in the previous quarter, for a net increase of 1.5 percent over the six months. Since the beginning of 2015 Freight TSI has declined in five out of seven quarters and is down 1.8 percent since peaking at 123.7 at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. The index remains high compared to earlier years, rising 28.2 percent since the low of 94.7 in April 2009.

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in September 2016 (121.5) were 28.2 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The September 2016 level was 2.6 percent below the historic peak reached in July 2016 (124.7) (Table 1A).

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.1 percent in September compared to the end of 2015 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 9.1 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of September 2011 and are up 7.6 percent in the 10 years from September 2006 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: September 2016 freight shipments were down 0.6 percent from September 2015 (Tables 4, 5).

3rd quarter changes: The Freight TSI fell 0.7 percent in the third quarter, the third quarterly decline in the last four quarters (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the October 2016 index is scheduled for Dec. 14.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.7 percent in September from its August level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI September 2016 level of 123.8 was 0.6 percent above the September 2015 level (Table 7). The index is up 7.5 percent in five years and up 11.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI fell 0.2 percent in September from its August level (Table 8). The combined TSI September 2016 level of 122.3 was 0.2 percent below the September 2015 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 8.6 percent in five years and up 8.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars. For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since March 2016

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight		Passenger		Combined
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
March	119.7	-1.1	122.2	-1.3	120.6	-1.1
April	121.6	1.6	123.8	1.3	122.3	1.4
May	121.9	0.2	124.1	0.2	122.7	0.3
June	122.4	0.4	125.4	1.0	123.4	0.6
July	124.7	1.9	124.6	-0.6	124.7	1.1
August	122.2	-2.0	123.0	-1.3	122.5	-1.8
September	121.5	-0.6	123.8	0.7	122.3	-0.2