BTS Statistics Release: 4th-Quarter 2015 Air Fare Data

BTS 24-16

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Contact: Dave Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568

 

BTS Statistics Release: 4th-Quarter 2015 Air Fare Data

 

The average domestic air fare decreased to $363 in the fourth quarter of 2015, down 8.3 percent from $396 in the fourth quarter of 2014, falling to the lowest level since 2010, adjusted for inflation (Table 1), the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today.

 

 

 

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares, Origin and Destination Survey

 

BTS reports average fares based on domestic itinerary fares. Itinerary fares consist of round-trip fares, unless the customer does not purchase a return trip. In that case, the one-way fare is included. One-way trips accounted for 33 percent of fares calculated for the fourth quarter of 2015. Fares are based on the total ticket value, which consists of the price charged by the airlines plus any additional taxes and fees levied by an outside entity at the time of purchase. Fares include only the price paid at the time of the ticket purchase and do not include fees for optional services, such as baggage fees. Averages do not include frequent-flyer or “zero fares.” Constant 2015 dollars are used for inflation adjustment.

 

Inflation-Adjusted Air Fares

Fourth-quarter fares rose 10.2 percent from the recession-affected low of $350 in 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2011. From 2011 to 2014, fourth-quarter fares rose 2.4 percent before the 8.3 percent decline to 2015 (Figure 1, Table 1). 

 

The fourth-quarter 2015 fare was down 14.4 percent from the average fare of $462 in 2000, the highest inflation-adjusted fourth quarter average fare in the 20 years since BTS began collecting air fare records in 1995. The 14.4 percent decline took place while overall consumer prices rose 34.9 percent. Since 1995, inflation-adjusted fares declined 10.8 percent (Table 2). See BTS Air Fare web page for historical data.

 

U.S. passenger airlines collected 75.0 percent of their total revenue from passenger fares during the third quarter of 2015, down from 87.6 percent in 1995 (Table 1A). Third quarter 2015 is the most recent available data.

 

Annual Fares

The average fare of $377 for the full year 2015 was down 3.8 percent, inflation-adjusted, from the 2014 average fare of $392 but down 19.2 percent from the inflation-adjusted annual high of $467 in 2000. The 2015 annual fare was the lowest since $365 in 2010.

 

Quarter-to-Quarter Change

Fourth-quarter fares were down 2.5 percent from the third quarter of 2015, dropping to the lowest inflation-adjusted level of any quarter since the fourth quarter of 2010 when the average fare was $361.

 

Following the post-recession fare increases, average fares were at least $383 in every quarter until dropping to $372 in the third quarter of 2015 and $363 in the fourth quarter (Table 3).

 

Unadjusted Air Fares

The $363 fourth-quarter 2015 average fare was down 7.7 percent from the fourth-quarter 2014 fare of $393, which was the highest average fare for any fourth quarter since 1995. Since 1995, unadjusted fares rose 26.0 percent compared to a 53.0 percent increase in overall consumer prices (Table 4). Fourth-quarter 2015 fares were down 2.5 percent from the third quarter of 2015, dropping to the lowest unadjusted level since the third quarter of 2012 when the average fare was $367 (Table 5). Fourth quarter 2015 fares were down 8.5 percent from the all-time unadjusted quarterly high of $396 in the third quarter of 2014.

 

Unadjusted Annual Fares

The average fare of $377 for the full year 2015 was down 3.7 percent from the 2014 average fare of $391 which was the adjusted annual high. The 2015 annual fare was the lowest since $375 in 2012. 

 

Fares by Airport

 

 

 

 

Grouped by the number of originating passengers in the fourth quarter of 2015, the 15 airports with more than 5 million originating passengers had the highest average fares ($365). Airports with 3 to 4 million originating passengers had the lowest average fares of any group ($319) (Figure 2, Table 6).

 

Tables listing the airports by group can be found on the BTS Air Fare web page.

 

For additional data, see Top 100 Airports or All Airports. Since average fares are based on the Origin and Destination Survey 10 percent ticket sample, averages for airports with smaller samples may be less reliable. Fares for Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico airports are not included in rankings but are available on the web page. First-quarter 2016 average fare data will be released July 26. 

 

 

Table 1. 4th Quarter Average Fare 1995-2015, Adjusted for Inflation

Year	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (4Q to 4Q) (%)	Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (4Q 1995 to 4Q of each year) (%)
1995	443
1996	415	-6.4	-6.4
1997	430	3.7	-2.9
1998	456	6.0	2.9
1999	447	-2.1	0.8
2000	462	3.5	4.3
2001	401	-13.2	-9.5
2002	404	0.6	-8.9
2003	405	0.4	-8.6
2004	369	-8.8	-16.7
2005	378	2.4	-14.7
2006	373	-1.4	-15.9
2007	371	-0.4	-16.3
2008	389	4.7	-12.4
2009	350	-9.9	-21.0
2010	361	3.1	-18.5
2011	386	6.9	-12.9
2012	386	-0.2	-13.1
2013	388	0.6	-12.6
2014	396	2.0	-10.8
2015	363	-8.3	-18.2

               

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 1A. Passenger Airline Revenue from Fares 1990-2015

Year	Revenue from Passenger Fares as Percent of Total Scheduled Passenger Airline Operating Revenue* (%)
1990	88.5
1995	87.6
2000	88.9
2001	87.8
2002	87.1
2003	84.9
2004	80.6
2005	78.4
2006	77.6
2007	77.7
2008	75.9
2009	73.7
2010	74.8
2011	74.6
2012	74.1
2013	74.6
2014	74.8
2015 (1Q)	74.6
2015 (2Q)	75.7
2015 (3Q)	75.0

 

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, P-12

* From Schedule P-12: Passenger Revenue (Fares) (Acct 3901) as a percentage of Total Operating Revenues (4999).

 

 

Table 2. Inflation-Adjusted Average Domestic Air Fares: Percent Changes to 2015 by Year since 1995

(4th Quarter to 4th Quarter for fares)

Since 4th Quarter of ...	Duration in Years	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Percent Change in Average Fare to 4th Quarter 2015 (%)
2015		363
2014	1	396	-8.3
2013	2	388	2.0
2012	3	386	2.6
2011	4	386	2.4
2010	5	361	9.5
2009	6	350	12.9
2008	7	389	1.8
2007	8	371	6.5
2006	9	373	6.1
2005	10	378	4.6
2004	11	369	7.0
2003	12	405	-2.4
2002	13	404	-2.1
2001	14	401	-1.4
2000	15	462	-14.4
1999	16	447	-11.5
1998	17	456	-13.3
1997	18	430	-8.1
1996	19	415	-4.7
1995	20	443	-10.8

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

 

 

Table 3. Inflation-Adjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year	Average Domestic Fare (2015$)
	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)
4Q 2013	388	-1.6
1Q 2014	383	-1.3
2Q 2014	393	2.6
3Q 2014	394	0.3
4Q 2014*	393	-0.3
1Q 2015*	388	-1.1
2Q 2015*	386	-0.6
3Q 2015*	372	-3.7
4Q 2015*	363	-2.5

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

* Fares for the most recent four quarters are in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation.

 

 

Table 4. Unadjusted Average Domestic Air Fares: Percent Changes to 2015 and the Inflation Rate* by Year since 1995

(4th Quarter to 4th Quarter for fares; December to December for inflation)

Year	Average Fare in current dollars ($)	Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (4Q to 4Q) (%)	Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (4Q 1995 to 4Q of each year) (%)	Inflation Rate Change to Dec 2015
1995	288
1996	278	-3.3	-3.3	0.7
1997	294	5.5	2.0	0.8
1998	316	7.7	9.9	2.3
1999	318	0.6	10.5	4.1
2000	340	7.0	18.2	7.1
2001	300	-11.8	4.2	8.7
2002	309	3.0	7.3	11.7
2003	316	2.2	9.7	11.8
2004	297	-5.9	3.3	16.4
2005	315	5.9	9.4	19.3
2006	318	1.1	10.6	23.4
2007	330	3.6	14.6	27.4
2008	345	4.7	20.0	29.8
2009	320	-7.4	11.1	32.9
2010	335	4.7	16.3	34.9
2011	368	10.0	28.0	39.5
2012	374	1.6	30.0	43.3
2013	382	2.1	32.8	45.6
2014	393	2.8	36.4	48.1
2015	363	-7.7	26.0	53.0

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

* Rate calculated using Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index

 

 

Table 5. Unadjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year	Average Domestic Fare (current$)
	Average Fare in current dollars ($)	Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)
4Q 2013	382	-2.0
1Q 2014	382	0.0
2Q 2014	396	3.5
3Q 2014	396	0.2
4Q 2014	393	-0.9
1Q 2015	388	-1.1
2Q 2015	385	-0.8
3Q 2015	372	-4.3
4Q 2015	363	-5.9

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 6. Fares at Airports with 1,000,000+ Originating Passengers 4th Quarter 2015

Based on 4Q2015 U.S. Originating Domestic Passengers

Airport Groups based on 4Q 2015 Originating Passengers	Average Fare 4th Quarter 2015 ($)	Percent of Total Passengers
5 million+	365	43
4-5 million	339	13
3-4 million	319	6
2-3 million	360	19
1-2 million	359	8
less than 1 million	363	11
Average Fare at All Airports	363	100

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey