CSDS News and Analysis 1493 (Feature Research: “Future Directions for Great Power Nuclear Arms Control,” WMD Center/NDU)

 

ISSUE

1493

Nov. 1, 2021

Welcome to USAF Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies News and Analysis. As part of the CSDS mission to develop U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, and other government leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions.

Feature Research

“Future Directions for Great Power Nuclear Arms Control: Policy Options and National Security Implications”. Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction/National Defense University, Lt Col T. Justin Bronder, USAF; Oct. 20, 2021.

WMD Center: "The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which represents the sole treaty currently limiting nuclear arms arsenals between the United States and Russia, will expire in 2026. What approach should the United States take as it seeks to maintain a 'safe, secure, and effective' nuclear deterrent while also considering possible future negotiations on nuclear arms control and risk reduction agreements?" Read Paper.

Nukes and Deterrence, Counter-WMD, and Arms Control in News and Research

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE

• Modernizing the Nuclear Triad: Decline or Renewal? (Hudson Institute)
This study analyzes the United States’ plans for modernizing the land, sea and airborne legs comprising its strategic nuclear force triad.

• The F-35 is One Step Closer to Carrying Nuclear Bombs. What’s Next? (Military Times)
The F-35′s atomic ambitions are a piece of the country’s nuclear modernization plan — slated to cost $634 billion from 2021 to 2030 alone — that flies under the radar.

• ‘It Did Circle the Globe’: US Confirms China’s Orbital Hypersonic Test (Defense One)
The Financial Times, citing multiple unnamed officials, reported that it was a hypersonic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, that circled the globe and then headed toward its target.

• The Problem with Deterrence (Wavell Room)
Military planners often consider the four D’s – deny, disrupt, destroy, degrade. Cyber effects are also temporary, transient and reversible unlike nuclear weapons.

• New Facility to Support Development of New ICBM System (Minot Daily News)
GBSD is a U.S. Air Force program to modernize the land-based leg of the nation’s strategic nuclear triad.

• Activists in Santa Fe Concerned about Plutonium Shipping Plan (Santa Fe New Mexican)
Opponents’ main concern is the 26 metric tons of cast-off plutonium bomb cores, or pits, that are being kept at the Pantex Plant in Amarillo, Texas.

COUNTER-WMD

• Pentagon Reexamining How It Addresses Chem-Bio Threats (National Defense)
Bio threats, along with chemical, radiological and nuclear hazards, have been thrust into the spotlight due to the crisis.

• Can US Missile-Defence Systems Handle China’s New Missiles? (ASPI Strategist)
FOBS is not a new idea. The Soviet Union explored the possibility of firing ballistic missiles over Antarctica to attack the United States from the south, rather than from the north over the Arctic, during the Cold War.

• Senate Appropriators Pile On Congressional Criticism Of Next-Gen Missile Warning Program (Breaking Defense)
Given the concerns from across the congressional landscape about Next-Gen OPIR's direction, "it's a reasonable assumption that there's some smoke somewhere there," said Capital Alpha's Byron Callan.

US ARMS CONTROL

• Russia, U.S. Release Latest Nuclear Weapons Counts as Moscow-NATO Ties Collapse (Newsweek)
"Amid the calls for military deterrence of Russia, NATO is consistently pulling its forces to our borders," Shoigu said, according to the state-run Tass Russian News Agency.

• North Korea’s “New Type Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile”: More Political Than Military Significance (38 North)
Pyongyang probably sees such activities as bolstering deterrence, trumpeting its technological prowess (not just over South Korea), generating prestige and legitimacy, and underscoring the foresight and accomplishments of the regime.

• Iran Ready to Hold Direct Talks with European Parties to Nuclear Deal (Reuters via Jerusalem Post)
In April, Iran and six world powers started negotiations to revive the agreement which former US President Donald Trump quit in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy.

COMMENTARY

• Chinese Views of the Changing Nuclear Balance (War on the Rocks)
"As China constructs more missile silos, however, the United States is confronted with the possibility of a Chinese arsenal that, in numbers of deployed strategic delivery vehicles or deployed warheads, rivals that of the United States."

• What Strategic Stability? How to Fix the Concept for US-Russia Relations (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
“A clear-cut and globally attractive concept at the end of the Cold War, strategic stability has since become overextended and virtually meaningless because of controversy over its interpretation.”

• The US Must Reject a ‘Sole Purpose’ Nuclear Policy (Defense News)
“As much as the world dislikes nuclear weapons, they are an important tool that helps maintain stability around the world.”