CSDS News and Analysis 1454 (Feature Report: “2020 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Report”, NASIC, DIBMAC)

 

ISSUE

1454

Feb. 1, 2021

Welcome to USAF Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies News and Analysis! As part of the CSDS mission to develop U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, and other government leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions.

Feature Report

"2020 Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat”. National Air and Space Intelligence Center, on behalf of the Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee.

NASIC: "The 'Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Report' provides a comprehensive, unclassified overview of foreign ballistic and cruise missiles, both of which present a significant threat to U.S. and allied forces overseas, and to the U.S. homeland and territories." Read Report.

Nukes and Deterrence, Counter-WMD, and Arms Control in News and Research

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DETERRENCE
• [Podcast] Columbia-class Subs Struggle with Software Trouble, GAO Says (Federal News Network)
Federal Drive with Tom Temin got the latest look-see at this critical military program from Shelby Oakley, the director of Contracting and National Security Acquisitions at the [GAO].

• Minot Air Force Base at Center of Ballistic Missile Program (AP via U.S. News)
“Development activities are ... on track toward the EMD phase’s first major milestone, an Integrated Baseline Review, to be held in spring ...,” Bryant told the The Minot Daily News on Jan. 11.

• Nuclear Cost-Cutters Face Uphill Battle (National Defense)
The Pentagon is pursuing new stealth bombers, air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missile submarines and ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles ... .

• For Wars of the Future, Pentagon Looks to Distant Past: The B-52 (Wall Street Journal)
The Air Force moved ahead with a new bomber called the B-21, which is expected to begin entering the service’s inventory in the middle to late 2020s.

• ICYMI: New Nuclear Cruise Missile Ahead of Schedule for Next Development Phase (Air Force Magazine)
If the cruise missile’s warhead program stays on schedule and funding is consistent, the weapon should be ready for deployment around 2030.

COUNTER-WMD
• Interview: How the US Plans to Improve its Missile Warning Satellites (C4ISRNET)
Maj. Gen. DeAnna Burt ... [on] what the military has learned since that attack, how the Space Force works to keep its guardians prepared, and what’s next for [US] space-based missile warning ... .

• Missile Defense Agency Picks 2 Vendors for Hypersonic Weapon Tracking Sensor Prototypes (C4ISRNET)
L3Harris and Northrop Grumman will create the prototypes for the agency’s Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor.

• The Other 4+1: Biological, Nuclear, Climatic, Digital, and Internal Dangers (Brookings)
This paper proposes that the [US] focus intently on a separate 4+1 list of dangers: biological weapons and pandemics, nuclear weapons, climate change, nefarious aspects of digital technologies ... .

US ARMS CONTROL

• Iran Angles for Advantage on Biden’s Priority List (New York Times)
Iran has threatened to block nuclear inspections next month, and further increased production of fuel that could be enriched for use in bombs.

• Renewed US-Russia Nuke Pact Won’t Fix Emerging Arms Threats (AP)
Russia has begun deploying new, exotic weapons, including nuclear-capable devices designed to evade the best of American missile defenses. Iran is seen as the biggest missile threat in the Mideast.

• After Trump Setbacks, Kim Jong Un Starts Over with Biden (AP)
North Korea has a history of testing new U.S. administrations with missile launches and other provocations aimed at forcing the Americans back to the negotiating table.

• Biden’s Arms Control Team Eyes Nuclear Policy Overhaul (Politico)
Veterans of the last administration fear this newly empowered group of progressives may be naive about what can be achieved without undermining U.S. security.

COMMENTARY
• How Effective is America’s Deterrence? (Defense News)
“Nuclear deterrence was developed in the late 1940s between America and the Soviet Union, although at the time both were hastily building up stockpiles of warheads."

• Selective Disclosure: How to Inject Strategy into U.S. Capability Development (War on the Rocks)
“The question of how the United States can gain the deterrent benefits of classified capabilities without suffering an unacceptable loss of operational effectiveness is a crucial one.”

• No Use (Arms Control Wonk)
“Deterrence is based on the credibility of threat making; if the threat isn’t credible, it ceases to deter. This has significant ramifications for a declaratory posture that hints of First Use.”

• Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (Modern War Institute)
Based on an article recently published in Defense & Security Analysis, entitled “Deterrence in the Age of Artificial Intelligence & Autonomy: A paradigm shift in nuclear deterrence theory and practice?”