Hurricane season starts May 15 for the Eastern Pacific region and June 1 for the Atlantic and Central Pacific regions.
In April, Colorado State University released its extended range forecast for the 2023 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Colorado State predicts we will have slightly below average activity this season. It is forecasting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
At the same time, the Weather Company’s meteorologists explain that there is larger-than-normal uncertainty in this year’s extended range forecasting. This is because two opposing forces are at work this season – much warmer sea surface temperatures, which tend to increase the strength of hurricanes, versus a stronger El Niño, which tends to lessen the number and intensity of storms.
Emergency management agencies can prepare for the 2023 hurricane season by staying up to date on weather prediction and forecasting products, as well as the latest tools and training to help with their decision-making and guidance to the public.
The National Hurricane Program hosted its annual Interagency Coordinating Committee on Hurricanes (ICCOH) meeting from March 13-17, 2023. This year’s meeting took a retrospective look at the 2022 hurricane season from federal and state participants and offered briefings with lessons learned and updates made in the past year to hurricane tools and resources for emergency managers.
The ICCOH staff created a 2023 Interagency Coordinating Committee on Hurricanes Virtual Meeting Room. In the room, stakeholders can find all the presentations delivered at the annual meeting, as well as in-depth briefings on updates to National Hurricane Center products and services for 2023. The virtual meeting room is a wealth of valuable information to emergency management agencies and will remain live throughout hurricane season to support state, local, tribal and territorial stakeholders and federal partners in their hurricane preparedness efforts.
Two of the most significant updates to hurricane forecasting products for 2023 are:
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NOAA has upgraded its Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model — the primary model for predicting storm surge associated with high-impact weather like hurricanes and tropical storms. The model now includes forecasts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the ability to run models for two storms simultaneously, and more accurate modeling of water inundation along the coast.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will extend the time frame on its potential storm formation outlooks from five days to seven days with both 2-day and 7-day formation probabilities provided. The NHC has been internally testing the accuracy of a seven-day outlook for several years. Now that this capability is live (no longer experimental), decision-makers and the public will have more lead time to prepare when a storm has the potential to make landfall.
To stay informed and prepared for the 2023 hurricane season, also be sure to check out NOAA’s 2023 Hurricane Awareness webinar series, happening this month, and the National Hurricane Program’s 2023 training webinars on HURREVAC, its hurricane evacuation timing decision support tool, coming up in June.
(Sources: NOAA, FEMA, ICCOH)
May is Building Safety Month. This year’s campaign, “It Starts with You,” reinforces the need for the adoption of modern, regularly updated building codes. The International Code Council (ICC) is sharing educational materials throughout the month, with weekly themes to help individuals, families and businesses understand what it takes to create safe and sustainable structures.
We are now in Week 2 of Building Safety Month. This week’s theme is “Building Safety Professionals and You.” This week, the ICC is emphasizing the important role that building safety professionals such as building officials, plans examiners, permit technicians, fire marshals and others, play in keeping the nation’s homes, schools and businesses safe. For week 2 of Building Safety Month, the ICC has posted a series of posters, fact sheets, and social media materials that can be used to educate others about the importance of code officials in keeping buildings safe.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is also observing Building Safety Month with steps the public can take to make their homes safer and stronger. Modern building codes ensure that your home is safe not just on blue sky days, but also built using the latest practices and standards to protect against natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. This month, FEMA is highlighting www.InspectToProtect.org. Anyone can use this resource to find the current building codes adopted in their local area, the kinds of modifications they can make to make their home safer and stronger, whether their code is up to date, and their community’s disaster history.
Emergency managers, building code officials, and policy makers can also benefit from FEMA’s Building Science resources, which provide tools for hazard mitigation stakeholders to create more disaster-resilient communities and reduce loss of life and property through the adoption of modern building codes.
(Sources: ICC, FEMA)
NIST’s Public Safety Communications Research (PSCR) program and the First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet) are holding a webinar next week on Tuesday, May 16, from 3-4 p.m. EDT (1-2 p.m. MDT). The webinar, En Route to 5x5: What to Expect, will provide a sneak peak into the sessions and demonstrations that will take place at the upcoming 5x5 Public Safety Innovation Summit, which will be held as an in-person event from June 28-30, 2023, in San Diego, California. The Summit evolves from PSCR’s Public Safety Broadband Stakeholder Meeting, which has been held annually since 2010. The purpose of this reimagined summit is to bring public safety, academia, government, and industry leaders together to discuss the current state of public safety communications technology and drive advancements in research, development, and deployment.
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) is hosting a webinar on Friday, May 19 at 3 p.m. EDT, Strengthening 911 Systems: State Policy Options. The webinar will feature the National 911 Program Coordinator, the Washington State 911 Coordinator, and the Executive Director of the North Carolina 911 Board. Speakers will discuss the use of improved technology, funding and other tools available to policymakers to enhance their state’s existing 911 systems. This webinar is part of NCSL’s Energy, Environment and Transportation 2023 Spring Webinar Series.
Both webinars are free and open to anyone interested.
(Sources: NIST, NCSL)
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