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Contact:
Matt Warbritton
Supervisory Hydrologist
Portland Data Collection Office
matt.warbritton@usda.gov
Oregon Water Supply Outlook Report
March 1, 2024
Operational Update as of 2024
New NRCS Water Supply Forecast System for the American West
This year, the NRCS begins using a new water supply forecast (WSF) system, the Multi-Model Machine-Learning Metasystem, or M4. In comparison to the historic singular WSF model, the new system creates a mean value from six different forecast models. Using the mean of the ensemble of models harnesses the strengths of each technique while insulating against potential individual model vulnerabilities. The original NRCS WSF model remains as part of the suite of ensemble models. Testing shows that the ensemble mean generally equals or exceeds the performance of any individual model member.
Application of NRCS water supply probabilistic forecasts remains unchanged.
Contact for additional information regarding forecasting update:
Angus Goodbody, angus.goodbody@usda.gov, Lead Forecast Hydrologist, USDA NRCS Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program
Additional reading:
Assessing the new NRCS water supply forecast model for the American West
A Machine Learning Metasystem for Robust Probabilistic Nonlinear Regression-Based Forecasting
Access historical water supply outlook reports by visiting the Oregon Snow Survey webpage and navigating to the "Water Supply" page.
MEDIA: visit the Contact Oregon Snow Survey webpage for all inquiries.
About NRCS Snow Survey
NRCS Snow Survey is the federal program that measures snow and provides streamflow forecasts and snowpack data for communities, water managers and recreationalists across the West.
In Oregon, snow measurements are collected from 82 SNOTEL sites, 42 manually measured snow courses, and 26 aerial markers. Water and snowpack information for all SNOTEL sites nationwide is available on the Snow Survey website in a variety of formats. The reports are updated every hour and are accessible through the Oregon Snow Survey homepage.
NRCS publishes six monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports between January 1 and June 1 every year. To regularly receive this information as an email announcement, click subscribe.
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