Population statistics suite of publications
On 15 July, we released the latest official population estimates for mid-2023 for England and Wales. These accredited statistics are the official estimates of the population and the publication includes comparisons with our admin-based population estimates (ABPEs), which is a key part of our population statistics transformation.
The evolving methodology for population and migration statistics and the design of the system is described in both technical and non-technical articles, demonstrating the move towards an admin-based system.
Further links to these publications can be found in the recent releases section of this newsletter.
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We aim for admin-based population estimates (APBEs) to become the official mid-year population estimates in 2025.
We will gather feedback from users, including local authorities on the new approach in autumn 2024, so we can draw on local insight as we improve the estimates.
This user feedback will form part of the criteria to support the decision on when the ABPEs will become the official mid-year population estimates. We will publish these criteria later in the year.
Our population is changing and so is the way we measure it
In her most recent blog for National Statistical, Mary Gregory, Director of Population Statistics, explains what is driving population growth. As well as explaining the progress we are making towards producing new estimates which better meet user needs.
User needs from 2022-based population and household projections: user engagement response
We are pleased to share that we have published our response to user needs on our 2022-based national, subnational, and household projections.
This user engagement was launched in January 2024 to seek views on our proposed methods and data sources for producing the next set of projections. Our projections provide vital information on potential future population and household numbers and are used as a common framework for planning and policymaking.
The engagement enabled us to gather feedback on users’ output needs from the upcoming projections releases, and to understand what users would like to see in our releases, such as specific variants or new dataset formats.
Thank you to all the respondents for their valuable input and engagement. We will continue to work closely with our users and stakeholders to produce high-quality and user-focused projections.
Migration Statistics User Forum
The 2024 Migration Statistics User Forum on 24 October will give people a chance to hear about the latest statistics, releases and changes in international migration from the ONS and the Home Office. There will be opportunity for Q&A during the sessions and a user's perspective to round off the morning.
The afternoon sessions will be presented by users of official statistics, putting the estimates into real-world contexts to highlight and explain the various uses within government and by other organisations.
Recent releases
The future of population and migration: a statistical design
To support understanding of why we are evolving population and migration statistics, we have today published a statistical design report explaining the design of the future statistical system for England and Wales.
This includes an overview of the statistical design starting with administrative data, data linkage, coverage adjustment, statistical modelling and a glossary of terms.
Updates to methodology information for official estimates
Our Quality and methodology information (QMI) for mid-year population estimates in the UK has been updated, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used, and data uses and users.
We have also updated the methodology guidance on national and subnational mid-year population estimates for England and Wales.
An update to our population statistics and sources guide includes comparisons of the different types of population estimates that are published on the ONS website or planned for future publication.
Supporting articles and information on admin-based population estimates
Travel and tourism
On 29 July we released new travel and tourism estimates for Great Britain, covering January to March of this year. This release includes overseas residents visiting Great Britain, residents of Great Britain visiting places outside the UK, and spending by travellers using provisional passenger traffic data.
Northern Ireland travel and tourism data are not included in the estimates for this quarter but will be included in our annual estimates for 2024.
Veterans
We have recently published data about life after service in the UK armed forces from the Veterans' Survey 2022. This data shows the weighted percentages of veterans across the UK by where veterans access information about veteran related issues, use of veteran or service charities, and community engagement.
The data are official statistics in development. These statistics are published as research and are not official statistics. The analysis article has been published on the government website and the accompanying datasets can be found on the ONS website.
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