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Today the Office for National Statistics published our reconciliation of mid-year population estimates with Census 2021 at local authority (LA) level.
Reconciliation is the process of comparing the new official mid-year population estimates for mid-2021 (derived from using Census 2021 data), with the mid-year population estimates for mid-2021 rolled forward from 2020. The rolled forward estimates indicate what we would have estimated the population to be in the absence of Census 2021.
The comparison of the two different types of population estimates shows how much inter-censual drift there has been. For example, how much potential error has affected the population statistics system over the years between 2011 and 2021, as we add in vital events (births and deaths) and migration.
Overall we found:
- 89.1% of local authorities had a difference in their population of less than +/-4.99% between the official mid-2021 population estimates for England and Wales – based on Census 2021 data – and the rolled forward from mid-2020 estimates.
- At the local authority level, the rolled-forward mid-year estimates were more likely to overestimate males than females compared with the census-based mid-year estimates.
- Excluding City of London, Camden displayed the largest percentage difference (24.97%) between the rolled-forward and 2021 census-based mid-year estimates for all local authorities in England and Wales.
The article examines the differences between estimates at local authority level by age and sex. Case studies in six local authorities are presented to assist users in interpreting the data. These are used to demonstrate areas with differing population structures and characteristics.
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