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Today the Office for National Statistics published our reconciliation of mid-year population estimates with Census 2021 for England and Wales.
Reconciliation is the process of comparing the new official mid-year population estimates for mid-2021 (derived from using Census 2021 data), with the mid-year population estimates for mid-2021 rolled forward from 2020. The rolled forward estimates indicate what we would have estimated the population to be in the absence of Census 2021.
The comparison of the two different types of population estimates shows how much inter-censual drift there has been. For example, how much potential error has affected the population statistics system over the years between 2011 and 2021, as we add in vital events (births and deaths) and migration.
Overall we found:
- The official mid-2021 population estimate for England - based on Census 2021 data - is 201,700 (0.36%) lower than the estimate rolled forward since the 2011 Census.
- The official mid-2021 population estimate for Wales - based on Census 2021 data - is 66,800 (2.11%) lower than the estimate rolled forward since the 2011 Census.
- For England the difference is made up of 201,600 fewer females and 403,200 more males in the 2021 rolled-forward estimate.
- For Wales the difference is made up of 22,500 more females and 44,300 more males in the 2021 rolled-forward estimate.
This article includes information on the possible causes of the differences and examines the impacts of the differences on the age and sex make up of the population, and at the country and regional levels.
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