Prospective new method for setting mortality assumptions for national population projections, UK: January 2023

Today the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published Prospective new method for setting mortality assumptions for national population projections, UK: January 2023.

This article explains the prospective mortality projections methodology and highlights findings from comparing this methodology with 2018-based and 2020-based interim national population projections (NPPs) produced using our current methodology.

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Give us your views

We are seeking feedback from our users on the impacts and implications from the prospective change in our method for producing mortality projections.

The user engagement exercise will run from 9 January to 20 February 2023, and you are invited to provide your feedback to help us assess the prospective change.

User feedback will contribute to decision-making on the mortality projections method used for the NPPs. We plan to announce our decision on whether to adopt the prospective method for the 2021-based NPPs in spring 2023.

Participate now

Contact us

We would welcome any comments on any of our products. Please contact  pop.info@ons.gov.uk with any feedback you may have.

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