Welcome to the summer 2022 edition of the migration and population statistics newsletter.
In this edition you will find news on recent and upcoming releases and events, together with updates on the work we have been doing in the last quarter.
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Census 2021 first release and future plans
On 28 June we released the first results from Census 2021 in England and Wales.
We published five datasets containing population and household estimates for England and for Wales, rounded to the nearest 100, at local authority level. These were: usual resident population by sex; usual resident population by 5-year age group; usual resident population by sex and 5-year age group and usual resident population density.
To explain these data, we published two statistical bulletins, one focused on England and Wales and one focused on Wales. In these, we discuss the population size and change from 2011, population density and number of households. Additionally, to support the data we have published a Quality and Methods Information (QMI) report, about the quality of the data; a Maximising the quality of Census 2021 population estimates report, an overview of the estimation and quality assurance processes we used to create and ensure the estimates are fit for purpose and a local authority comparison tool, letting you compare estimates for local authorities with other sources of data.
You may also want to explore the interactive content from the Census 2021 first results, including a:
- scrolly-telling article, about how the population has changed in different local authority areas and how they compare with others across England and Wales
- game, testing your knowledge of the population of local authorities
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The breadth and depth of census statistics means that we will release the more detailed data in stages, starting with the release of the first of our eight topic summaries in October. Our timetable is planned around user need and we will release the statistics as soon as they are ready. Find out more about the Census 2021 outputs release plans.
If you have any questions about census data please get in touch our Census Customer Services team: census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk
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We are engaging with local authorities to explain how we want to work with them to understand more about their populations, and how we can use Census 2021 as a baseline from which to build more frequent, timely, and inclusive population estimates using ambitious new methods (see the article below).
On 14 July 2022 we published an article outlining the new methods we are developing to produce estimates of the size of the population, using a dynamic population model. The dynamic population model will apply a statistical modelling approach to a variety of data sources, to provide more frequent, relevant, and timely statistics to allow us to understand population change in local areas this year and beyond.
The article explains what the dynamic population model is, how it differs from the existing method for creating population estimates, the data it uses and the outputs it will produce. It presents some example outputs for a synthetic local authority with a population typical of areas that contain a university. This is the first in a series of publications over the coming months which will outline our plans to transform population and migration statistics.
Alongside this we have also published an article explaining how we intend to move through the next stages of the international migration transformation programme. Users require international migration which are timely, frequent and granular. These estimates are also a key input to the dynamic population model. This article explains our plans to meet both requirements.
In order to align with 2021 Census results the mid-2021 population estimates will be published later in 2022 (provisionally October/November). Back-series data will follow as soon as possible, provisionally early in 2023. Estimates for other geographies will follow later in 2023.
Population Statistics Division have recently taken on responsibility for producing annual outputs on marriages, civil partnerships and divorces in England and Wales from colleagues in the Heath Analysis and Life Events team.
These outputs will be produced within the Demographic Analysis Unit alongside our other outputs including estimates of the population by marital status and living arrangements, and families and households. We also wanted to make users of these data aware that there will be some changes to the data available on divorces going forward. This is as a result of some variables no longer being collected during the divorce and civil partnership dissolution process by HM Courts and Tribunals Service (HMCTS).
We would be happy to provide further information on these changes and to receive any feedback on how you use these outputs to help us develop them in the future. Please contact pop.info@ons.gov.uk
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