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Today the Centre for International Migration has published our best estimates of long-term international migration in 2020, as well as the population of the UK by country of birth and nationality for the year to June 2021. Alongside these releases, we have published a blog explaining the differences between these two sets of statistics, and when you should and shouldn’t compare them.
These are part of a series of releases this week, highlighting how we are transforming our population and migration statistics. We are sharing our research progress as well as providing timely insights into migration as we develop our statistics.
Tomorrow, we will publish our research on transforming our population and migration statistics. This will include explaining our proposed design for a transformed migration statistics system which will integrate modelled estimates with admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs), our development and understanding of our admin-based population estimates (ABPEs), and research into how the student population of England and Wales appears in administrative data.
About the releases:
Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality: year ending June 2021
The latest population estimates for the UK by country of birth and nationality, covering the period from 2004 to the year ending June 2021. Our best estimates show that while non-UK born and non-British populations remained broadly stable in the year-ending June 2021, the number of people living in the UK who were born outside of the EU (excluding the UK) increased, and those with EU nationality fell.
These estimates are based on the Labour Force Survey, which has used a new weighting methodology to reflect the change in survey operations during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; data below UK, EU and non-EU level should be treated with caution and not be compared with previous years.
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2020
Our latest provisional modelled estimates of international migration flows reveal the likely impact that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and Brexit had upon migration levels in 2020. While there is no evidence of an exodus from the UK in 2020, the figures suggest that UK migration fell to the lowest level seen for many years, with global travel restrictions meaning the movement of people was limited. These are our best current estimates for international migration over this period, however they are modelled figures based on experimental research and subject to a high level of uncertainty.
Experimental migration data: No evidence of UK exodus
The latest provisional modelled estimates suggest that although net international migration to the UK fell in 2020, there is no evidence of an exodus. In today’s blog, Jay Lindop explains what can be interpreted from today’s experimental statistics, why they shouldn’t be compared to population figures and ongoing improvements to build and refine them.
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