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Welcome to the June 2021 edition of the migration and population statistics newsletter, which includes news on recent and upcoming releases and events, and updates on the work we have been doing in the last quarter.
Look out for the next edition in the Autumn.
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Population estimates for the UK, mid-2020 and future look at our population and migration statistics plans
On 25 June we published the UK population estimates for mid-2020, which provide official estimates of the population at the UK, country, regional and local authority level. They show the population of the UK at mid-year 2020 was estimated to be 67.1 million, an increase of about 281,000 (0.4%) since mid-year 2019.The release includes information about the components of population change in the year to mid-2020 – births, deaths and migration, both international and internal.
Alongside this, we updated on our plans to develop migration statistics throughout 2021 and into 2022. It sets out our ambitions to develop official migration statistics with administrative sources, such as Home Office visa data, at the heart, and supported by statistical modelling. This will build on the development of our previous modelling research published in April 2021 and our ABMEs research, with a greater focus on the use of Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data. This will make these statistics timelier and improve coverage. Administrative based migration estimates (ABMEs) will also allow insightful analysis on sub-populations of migrants, including migrant workers, students and families and dependents.
More detail on this, and publication plans, are contained within Population and migration statistics system transformation - recent updates, and summarised in our accompanying blog How many people live in the UK?.
Latest long-term international migration data
We also published statistics on international migration that form part of the mid-year 2020 population estimates. It presents quarterly estimates of long-term international migration including the final four months in which the International Passenger Survey (IPS) – the historic source for estimating migration flows – was suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a consequence, estimates from March 2020 onwards are estimated using modelling techniques.
National population projections, subnational population projections and household projections
On 25 June we published an update National population projections, subnational population projections and household projections for England - future plans: June 2021 on our plans for publishing 2020-based interim national population projections and future rounds of subnational population projections (England) and household projections (England) after Census 2021. These plans have been informed by the helpful responses we have received to our user engagement exercise which ran in autumn 2020.
In mid-April we published a summary of user responses to our invitation for projections user feedback in autumn 2020 and our plans to publish ‘2020-based interim national population projections’ later in the year. More information can be found in the National and subnational population projections - user feedback: April 2021. Thank you to all who fed back to us.
Titchfield City Group on Ageing and Age-disaggregated data (TCGA)
The TCGA is a UN City group chaired by the ONS. Its remit is to improve age-related data and the disaggregation of data by age internationally, with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) providing one of the main foundations for the identification of ageing related concepts to be measured.
We will be holding the third annual technical meeting of the TCGA virtually this year, over three days, 29 and 30 June and 1 July 2021. The meeting will bring together representatives from National Statistical Offices across all world regions, UN groups such as UN Women, the World Health Organisation, Help Age International and academic experts and will give us the opportunity to continue to build international collaboration on this important topic. We will be reviewing progress made so far, including the impact of the pandemic, identifying next steps and inviting the wider membership to actively contribute to progressing the work further.
Registration to attend the event is open until Monday 28 June - you can access the registration page via this Eventbrite link.
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Census 2021 outputs: content design and release phase proposals
In the summer we will publish our proposed census outputs, census analysis programme and output release phases. This will set out our full proposed offering of outputs and analysis based on the recent 2021 Census in England and Wales, as part of a 12-week consultation. We will welcome user feedback on our proposed programme, so do not hesitate responding to our consultation when it goes live as this will help shape future census outputs and analysis.
Inclusive Data Taskforce
The Inclusive Data Taskforce was established by the National Statistician in October 2020, to improve the UK’s inclusive data holdings. The public consultation on inclusive data has now closed and the Taskforce are considering the findings alongside other evidence that has been collected. They are due to make their recommendations to the National Statistician in Summer 2021.
Short-term international migration for England and Wales: year ending June 2019.
On 27 May, the Centre for International Migration published Short-term international migration (STIM) for England and Wales: year ending June 2019. Data collection and migration patterns have been impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. For this reason, caution should be taken when interpreting comparisons of the STIM estimates with previous years. More detail is available in Section 2: Short-term international migration and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
As a result of the migration statistics transformation, the IPS being stretched beyond its original purpose and the impact of the coronavirus, this will be the last STIM bulletin using the International Passenger Survey (IPS) as its main data source. So far on our transformation journey, we have focused on developing admin-based migration estimates (ABMEs) for long-term international migration but we are now exploring how measurements of STIM estimates can be improved. More detail is available in Section 4: Development of short-term migration statistics.
Your feedback is important. We want to hear what our users need from the development of these statistics to ensure we are providing the best insights on population and migration. We plan to run a series of events with stakeholders, to discuss our latest research findings and gather feedback. Get in touch by emailing pop.info@ons.gov.uk.
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