Issue 86  |  12 March 2025

• Spotlight on 'UK wildfire risk'
• Report: How climate insights drive a more reliable renewable energy transition
• Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming
• Climate Conversations latest episode
• Increasing resilience against the winds of change
• State of the Climate Report 2024
• World Meteorological Day

Spotlight on 'UK wildfire risk'

New research shows that the damaging fires during the UK’s record-breaking 2022 heatwave were made at least six times more likely due to human-caused climate change.

Scientists from the Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and University of Exeter have compared the present day climate to one without human influence through greenhouse gas emissions to understand the influence of climate change on fire weather.

Lead author Dr Chantelle Burton from the Met Office said: “The 2022 heatwave wasn’t just record-breaking — it drastically increased the risk of fires, highlighting the growing danger climate change poses to the UK.”

Dr Burton added: “We found that the 2022 UK severe fires were made at least six times more likely due to human influence. With hotter, drier summers becoming the norm, fires are an emerging threat to the UK.”

One of the paper’s key messages is the urgent need to adapt to rising fire risks while limiting further warming. An urgent and significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions would limit the increase in future fire risks, while targeted adaptation measures could help communities and ecosystems cope with the escalating threat.

In the news

Unprecedented changes to North Atlantic winds could have major impacts on UK weather

A new research paper has been published today revealing that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could reach unprecedented magnitudes by the end of the century, leading to severe impacts such as increased flooding and storm damage in northern Europe.

Lead author, Met Office scientist Dr Doug Smith, emphasised the urgency of the findings: "These findings have major implications for understanding and preparing for extreme weather events. Our study suggests that taking model projections at face value could leave society unprepared for impending extremes. Mitigation efforts are crucial to prevent the severe impacts associated with an unprecedented increase in the NAO."

Report: How climate insights drive a more reliable renewable energy transition

On 4 March, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a report into the renewable energy transition.

“Whether it is solar power generation in drier-than-average conditions, wind power generation in regions experiencing shifts from La Niña to El Niño conditions, or hydropower generation in the face of fluctuating precipitation patterns, climate has a direct bearing on both electricity supply and demand. Such challenges also present unprecedented opportunities: the integration of climate insights into energy planning yields more reliable power generation, helps anticipate seasonal peaks in demand and strengthens the adaptability of future infrastructure development,” wrote WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Director-General Francesco Camera and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Director Carlo Buontempo in a joint foreword.

Climate change: AMOC likely to withstand future warming

On 26 February, new research was published in the journal Nature indicating that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a major transporter of heat to the north Atlantic and northwestern Europe – is unlikely to collapse this century.

Dr Jonathan Baker is a scientist at the Met Office and the paper’s lead author. He said: “The AMOC has a crucial role in regulating our climate; without it, northwest Europe’s temperatures would be much cooler.

“Although our study shows that collapse over the next 75 years is unlikely, the AMOC is very likely to weaken, which will present climate challenges for Europe and beyond.”

Climate Conversations latest episode

The latest episode of our Climate Conversations video looks at renewable energy, discussing how the work we do benefits the industry as it continues to grow.

What's coming up

Increasing resilience against the winds of change

Anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the southern hemisphere have driven the creation of more tropical cyclone activity so far this season with Tropical Cyclone Alfred affecting eastern Australia and Tropical Cyclone Jude affecting Mozambique in recent days.

You can find out more about tropical cyclones by watching an interview with Met Office expert Julian Heming on our Deep Dive.

The impact of tropical cyclones has long posed a challenge to insurance and financial institutions; especially the shock of multiple systems affecting different centres at the same time.

The Met Office is partnering with a range of research and industry experts on an in-person hackathon to explore these challenges.

The event - the Global Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones: climate risk analytics for the reinsurance industry – will take place in Leeds on 10-11 June 2025.

Led by UK Centre for Greening Financial Investment, the event is partnered by Aon, ASPECT, Imperial Grantham Institute, JBA Risk Management, Maximum Information, the Met Office, University of Reading, and CEMAC - University of Leeds.

Adrian Champion of Aon said: “Improving our understanding of the global relationships between tropical cyclones is a key area of research for the reinsurance industry. This hackathon brings together academics and industry to re-address this topic, combining the latest science and methodology to provide the latest insights, and more detailed information to the industry.”

The Met Office’s Freya Garry said: “We are urging researchers and practitioners to join us for a collaborative and innovative experience pushing the boundaries of our knowledge and to bolster the resilience of the reinsurance industry.”

There are limited places, and the application window expires on 14 April 2025.

State of the Climate Report 2024

On 19 March, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is expected to publish the latest State of the Climate Report, which will look back at 2024.

World Meteorological Day

21 March is World Meteorological Day, led by the World Meteorological Organization. This year, the theme is ‘closing the early warning gap together’.

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