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Climate newsletter |
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Issue 83 | 22 January 2025 |
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This month’s theme has been Climate and Health. As climate change influences rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and more extreme weather events, this in turn threatens the essential ingredients to good health – clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food supply and safe shelter. Throughout the month we shared information on the impacts to human health when these elements are disrupted due to climate change.
Risks from a changing climate include an increase in heat-related illness, respiratory illness, mental health problems and vector-borne diseases, such as dengue or malaria. Whether a disease is passed through the air, water or carried by insects, the impacts of climate and extreme weather increase the risk. As with other climate-related risks, those most vulnerable in our society are the most likely to be impacted.
Whilst we are already seeing the effects of our changing climate, there is still time to mitigate against the worst impacts by rapidly reducing carbon emissions. This also has additional co-benefits such as reduced air pollution which is a serious public health problem. Adapting to the changes we are already seeing and will see in future, will also make society and individuals more resilient to the health impacts of climate change. Adapting homes and buildings as well as healthcare provision will also be vital to tackle climate change impacts.
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On 10 January, the Met Office along with other global climate centres released their 2024 average temperature figures for 2024. The latest figures highlight how the world is getting closer to breaching the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C, which considers the longer-term average temperature. 2024 was the warmest year on record globally and the first year that was likely more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels: a stark reminder global temperatures are continuing to rise.
Commenting on the 2024 global temperature announcement, Minister for Climate, Kerry McCarthy said: “There is much more work to be done to keep 1.5 °C within reach and prevent climate catastrophe. The scale of the challenge is huge, but through collective action we can deliver change at the scale and pace required."
Further information is available from other global climate centres - NOAA, NASA, Copernicus and World Meteorological Organization.
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On 16 January, we published a blog post which considered the influence of climate change on wildfires in light of the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles this month, and our thoughts remain with those impacted.
Professor Richard Betts of the Met Office said: “The failure of the international community to cut global emissions means that we must now live with unavoidable changes. Many people around the world are now going to have to live with more fire as part of their everyday lives.”
With much climate research looking at the future likelihood of fire conditions which can exacerbate the spread and impact of wildfires, it’s important to note that sources of ignition of wildfires is a separate factor, as is the planning and management of fires when they do occur.
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The impacts of climate change are resulting in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events. The impacts of extreme heat can be many and varied - from health consequences, especially for those who are particularly vulnerable, through to impacts on infrastructure, transport, energy, and the wider business community.
 This rise is driven by fossil fuel burning and land use changes, and despite natural carbon sinks, it remains above the limits compatible with IPCC’s 1.5 °C scenarios with limited/no overshoot.
The rise in atmospheric CO₂ from 2023 to 2024 was the largest on record in the long-running record of measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which started in 1958, exceeding the Met Office’s prediction.
The CO₂ rise between 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm. A partial re-strengthening of carbon sinks linked to a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions will slightly slow the CO₂ rise, but it remains significantly high. This highlights the need for urgent action to stay within the 1.5 °C limit. Immediate and substantial cuts in emissions are crucial to ensure a sustainable future.
Professor Richard Betts, who leads the production of the forecast, is interviewed on the latest episode of Met Office Climate conversations.
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