Issue 62  |  24 January 2024

Spotlight on 'Weather and climate extremes'

Climate change is, as expected, leading to an increase in extreme weather in the UK and around the globe. As the world continues to warm, we can expect this extreme weather to become even more prevalent. Mitigating against a changing climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical to limiting warming which would help us avoid the worst impacts of climate change. We also need to adapt to the climate changes we are already seeing and the changes that are expected in the coming decades to make sure we avoid the most significant impacts.

Understanding weather and climate extremes

In recognition of an increase in extremes and a need to continue to improve predictions of extreme weather and to assess its impacts, last year the Met Office formed a team of experts to focus on the links between climate change and weather extremes. Ultimately, this team seeks to help the public, industry, business, and local and national government deal with extreme weather and remain safe and resilient in a changing climate.

The influence of climate change on severe weather

The Met Office’s dedicated team looking at weather and climate extremes has collated the latest published academic literature on severe weather in the UK in the context of our changing climate. In a new blog post, Climate Extremes Principal Fellow and Chief Meteorologist Paul Davies shared some of the findings from that work.

Science of extreme weather and climate

In a recent video, Met Office meteorologist and presenter Aidan McGivern spoke with scientists to explore the science linking extreme weather events to climate change.

In the news

2023: The warmest year on record globally

On 12 January, the Met Office and the University of East Anglia released figures indicating that globally 2023 was the warmest year in a series stretching back to 1850. Dr Colin Morice is a Climate Monitoring and Research Scientist with the Met Office. He said: “2023 is now confirmed as the warmest year on average over the globe in 174 years of observation…Year-to-year variations sit on a background of around 1.25 °C warming in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels. This warming is attributable to human-induced climate change through greenhouse gas emissions.”

Met Office carbon-dioxide forecast for 2024

On 19 January, the Met Office published their annual CO₂ forecast which shows that the build-up of atmospheric carbon-dioxide between 2023 and 2024 is forecast to be faster than that required to track IPCC scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Professor Richard Betts is the Met Office author of the CO₂ forecast. He said: “Even when we compensate for the temporary effects of El Niño, we find that human-induced emissions would still cause the CO₂ rise in 2024 to be on the absolute limits of compliance with the 1.5 °C pathways."

Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK

A new book has been published about the UK Climate Resilience programme that was co-led by the Met Office and involved researchers from across the UK. ‘Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK’ summarises £19m of research to improve the characterisation and quantification of climate risks, enhance understanding of the management of climate risks, and develop and delivery climate services. Find out more about the publication and how to access it for free below.

What's coming up

Using climate predictions for adaptation: the latest research and organisations’ experiences

Do you use climate information in decision making? Would you like to explore how climate information could be used in your organisation? Come along to the ASPECT User Forum from 30 January to 1 February to learn about the latest developments in climate prediction science and hear organisations share their experiences in applying these products in the real-world.

The second annual User Forum will bring together climate researchers and organisations using climate information from across Europe. The sessions are open to anyone interested in understanding climate predictions and how they can be applied to decision-making, including current or potential users of climate information, representatives from public agencies, business owners, or members of non-governmental organisations. Attendees from diverse backgrounds and sectors are encouraged to attend, you don’t need any specialised knowledge to come along.

The User Forum 2024 will be comprised of the following sessions:

• Tuesday 30 January, 13:00-14:30 GMT – Understanding seamless climate information
• Wednesday 31 January, 11:30-13:00 GMT: Advancing ASPECT Project: Research and Innovation
• Thursday 1 February, 13:00-14:30 GMT: One-on-One and Small Group Chats

Join us to discover the latest seasonal to decadal prediction science from ASPECT and its real-world applications!

If you’d like to be kept up to date with the latest news from ASPECT, sign up to our mailing list or follow us on X and LinkedIn.

Green Football Weekend

The Met Office is supporting Green Football Weekend (2 - 5 February), which encourages football clubs and fans to reduce their carbon pollution through actions including eating veggie snacks, using green transport alternatives and highlighting all activity that supports a greener future for football.

Around a third of grassroots football pitches are already losing six weeks to two months of the year from flooding due to severe weather, and future climate change is projected to bring about a change in the intensity and seasonality of extreme weather, with more heavy rainfall occurring in the autumn.

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