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Climate newsletter |
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Issue 61 | 10 January 2024 |
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Spotlight on “1.5 °C and climate impacts” |
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Since the Paris Agreement at COP21 in December 2015, the 1.5 °C target as a limit for global warming is much discussed. Nearly every country in the world pledged to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels”, and going further, to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Our outlook on global temperature for this year suggests that it will be the first year we have a chance of reaching 1.5 °C. As a temporary exceedance of the limit this wouldn’t be a breach of the Paris Agreement, but certainly a milestone in climate history. We had a closer look at the temperature target and the associated impacts of climate change.
Why 1.5 °C?
The concept of identifying a threshold for climate change has existed for over 30 years. Find out more about where the current 1.5 °C target comes from and what difference half a degree makes.
To illustrate the current level of global warming, a new section has been added to the Met Office Climate Dashboard, displaying different indicators like human-induced warming. This complements the new proposition from Met Office scientists on how to track progress against the Paris Agreement.
Met Office scientists using UK Climate Projections 2018 data helped inform the 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment on potential impacts to the UK - compared to the present day, warming of 2 °C would result in droughts being 86% more frequent, an extra 8 days hotter than 25 °C, 16 fewer days below 0 °C and 2 extra days of extreme rainfall per year.
As a result, impacts are expected across sectors, including agriculture, energy, public health and transport.
 You can explore this data and download climate datasets in a range of file formats from our Climate Data Portal.
In a guest post for the platform SDG Action, Dr Leon Hermanson, Met Office Expert Scientist at the Predictability Research Group writes about surviving weather in a 1.5 °C world, looking at last year’s extreme weather events in the context of 1.5 °C and how government, society and artificial intelligence can help to build resilience to the impacts.
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 The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) yesterday published data for 2023 global mean temperature, showing it was the hottest year on record. Met Office data will be published later this week alongside international partners.
 On 2 January, the Met Office released a statement that 2023 was provisionally the second warmest year on record according to mean temperature. Both Wales and Northern Ireland had their warmest years on record, meaning they’ve had consecutive warmest years on record. Met Office Senior Scientist Mike Kendon said: “The observations of the UK climate are clear. Climate change is influencing UK temperature records over the long term, with 2023 going down as another very warm year and the second warmest on record. Had the 2023 value occurred during the 20th Century, it would have been, by far, the warmest year on record.”
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Do you use climate information in decision making? Would you like to explore how climate information could be used in your organisation? Come along to the ASPECT User Forum from 30 January to 1 February to learn about the latest developments in climate prediction science and hear organisations share their experiences in applying these products in the real-world.
The second annual User Forum will bring together climate researchers and organisations using climate information from across Europe. The sessions are open to anyone interested in understanding climate predictions and how they can be applied to decision-making, including current or potential users of climate information, representatives from public agencies, business owners, or members of non-governmental organisations. Attendees from diverse backgrounds and sectors are encouraged to attend, you don’t need any specialised knowledge to come along.
The User Forum 2024 will be comprised of the following sessions:
- Tuesday 30 January, 13:00-14:30 GMT – Understanding seamless climate information
- Wednesday 31 January, 11:30-13:00 GMT: Advancing ASPECT Project: Research and Innovation
- Thursday 1 February, 13:00-14:30 GMT: One-on-One and Small Group Chats
Join us to discover the latest seasonal to decadal prediction science from ASPECT and its real-world applications!
If you’d like to be kept up to date with the latest news from ASPECT, sign up to our mailing list or follow us on X and LinkedIn.
The deadline for entries for the Manchester Prize is 1 February 2024. The £1 million prize is available for pioneering AI innovations tackling some of society’s biggest challenges. Principal areas of focus for the inaugural prize centre on energy, the environment and infrastructure, with the Manchester Prize set to put brilliant UK-based AI minds at the heart of problem solving.
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