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On Sunday 31 October, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published their provisional 2021 State of the Global Climate report, which showed that the period 2002-2021 reached an average of 1.01°C ±0.12 °C.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office Chief Scientist, said: “The observations show that the global temperature in 2021 is higher than average, in spite of the slight, short-term, natural cycle of cooling associated with the La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“This year’s provisional figure shows that the temperature trend remains upward. The fact that the 20-year average has reached more than 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels will focus the minds of delegates at COP26 aspiring to keep global temperature rise to within the limits agreed in Paris six years ago.”
New analysis by Met Office Hadley Centre scientists has shown the summer seasonal temperature recorded across Europe in 2021 would have been impossible without human induced climate change.
The summer of 2021 was Europe’s hottest on record with temperatures close to 1°C above the 1991-2020 average. To assess the impact of climate change on these high seasonal temperatures, scientists used a large collection of computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today, with about 1°C of global warming, with the climate as it would have been without human influence, using the same methods as in past peer-reviewed studies.
The calculations showed that the record-breaking summer season in Europe would have been almost impossible without human influence with a return time of thousands of years. In the present climate it has an estimated return time of around three years and by the end of the century the conditions could be seen every year. The study used a medium emissions scenario (SSP 4.5) for the future projections of climate change.
Met Office climate attribution scientist, Dr Nikos Christidis, who lead the analysis, said: “This latest attribution study is another example of how climate change is already making our weather extremes more severe. Our analysis of the European summer of 2021 shows that what is now a one in three-year event would have been almost impossible without human induced climate change.”
The new analysis will feature in the BBC’s Panorama, airing at 19:30 on 3 November or on iPlayer after that.
You can read more about the attribution analysis in our news release.
More than 100 leaders have committed to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. The pledge is backed by almost £14 billion ($19.2 billion) in public and private funding. Countries spanning from the northern forests of Canada and Russia to the tropical rainforests of Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will endorse the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use. Together, they contain 85% of the world’s forests, an area of over 13 million square miles.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said: “...leaders have signed a landmark agreement to protect and restore the earth’s forests.
“These great teeming ecosystems – these cathedrals of nature - are the lungs of our planet. Forests support communities, livelihoods and food supply, and absorb the carbon we pump into the atmosphere. They are essential to our very survival.
“With today’s unprecedented pledges, we will have a chance to end humanity’s long history as nature’s conqueror, and instead become its custodian.”
Read more in this news release from No 10:
The Global Methane Pledge is an international initiative put forward by the US and EU to reduce methane emissions, an effective way to slow warming in the short term.
Today the UK's Chancellor has set out plans for the UK to be the world's first net zero financial centre with 40% of the world's financial assets now to be aligned with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. This follows commitments from financial services firms.
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