Weekly Update: Testing to Protect

Weekly update

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Friends,

Earlier during today’s City Council budget hearing, Dr. Manoj Jain and I made a presentation to drastically increase our testing capacity. In order to control the virus, we must test to protect ourselves and our families against COVID-19.

To do this, we’re suggesting to scale up COVID-19 testing to roughly 30,000 people per day regardless of their symptoms. Large scale testing will allow the safer reopening of ours schools, businesses, and increased testing in underserved communities. We plan to use Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test kits that are now widely available. They’re less invasive, and they’re easy to use. Processing the tests costs less than $50 dollars.

The City has set aside $12M dollars in CARES Act relief funding to get us up to this scale of testing. Today, we asked for $1 million of that to start off to build the infrastructure to implement the plan, including a voluntary pilot program with City employees who would like to participate beginning in June.

If we’re successful, Memphis will create the blueprint to grow testing in other cities across the country, and once again, lead as a city that continues to change the world.

A closer look at the numbers: Below is a chart that takes a look at our data points over the last several weeks.

Counts per day

Tests Reported

Test Positivity Rate (%)

Confirmed Cases

Estimated COVID Hospitalized

Estimated COVID ICU Hospitalized

Deaths

4/2/2020

150

7.5

2

     

4/3/2020

1022

-29

66

83

28

 

4/4/2020

335

9.8

48

83

28

 

4/5/2020

401

14.4

35

99.2

33.1

 

4/6/2020

439

6.7

56

91.8

35

 

4/7/2020

559

11.4

52

99.4

38.4

3

4/8/2020

729

7.9

52

120.6

43.5

2

4/9/2020

1303

11.4

100

126.2

48

2

4/10/2020

555

8.5

98

122.4

48

1

4/11/2020

343

10.4

69

118

54

0

4/12/2020

849

12.5

53

104

48.4

0

4/13/2020

737

17.9

82

102

40.4

4

4/14/2020

653

13.5

81

101.6

40.4

1

4/15/2020

585

14.9

76

100.3

46.2

1

4/16/2020

1386

9.8

108

102.5

49.8

3

4/17/2020

354

8.5

115

100.7

49.8

2

4/18/2020

805

5.9

35

107.7

50.1

0

4/19/2020

983

9.3

41

114.4

40.8

1

4/20/2020

621

6.7

50

102.8

44.4

1

4/21/2020

499

7.9

37

91.3

40.5

2

4/22/2020

446

7.5

37

101.4

42.2

0

4/23/2020

894

5

50

101.9

45.1

2

4/24/2020

855

14

57

99.4

42.2

1

4/25/2020

1460

4.9

95

104.9

42.2

1

4/26/2020

1329

11.5

187

95.1

41.5

0

4/27/2020

449

4.6

38

105.7

41.2

1

4/28/2020

733

5.7

45

112.7

43.5

0

4/29/2020

1643

3.1

81

112.2

48.8

1

4/30/2020

1306

6.2

72

103.8

47.1

3

5/1/2020

1347

5.8

98

116.2

54.5

3

5/2/2020

1483

9.6

95

110.3

51

0

5/3/2020

1636

7.1

101

115.5

49.8

0

5/4/2020

641

4.7

72

113.4

45.7

4

5/5/2020

691

5.4

26

118.5

46.5

1

5/6/2020

1650

5

92

122.1

46

6

5/7/2020

1467

7

73

114.8

46.2

2

5/8/2020

616

3

27

121.9

51.3

1

5/9/2020

1435

3.5

90

112.1

51.9

0

5/10/2020

1843

3.8

85

103.8

48.2

0

5/11/2020

1667

5.3

106

117.9

51.6

5

5/12/2020

1212

6.4

41

123.7

52.9

4

5/13/2020

1326

4.9

61

141.6

52.5

2

5/14/2020

1686

5.4

46

120.6

53.6

4

5/15/2020

1634

3.3

72

126.5

42.7

2

5/16/2020

1775

6.4

78

123.8

48.6

0

5/17/2020

738

5.2

42

122.6

48.8

1

5/18/2020

2565

4.2

116

141.2

48.2

3

5/19/2020

1701

4.7

128

153.9

56.9

0

5/20/2020

1424

5.8

29

156.5

56.7

3

5/21/2020

1400

5.3

49

147.8

54.3

0

5/22/2020

1865

6.4

100

148.5

58.7

1

5/23/2020

1868

7.3

126

139.8

54.8

1

5/24/2020

1761

10.9

95

132.8

49.1

0

5/25/2020

2107

8.2

127

148

55.8

1

5/26/2020

821

8.7

50

153

56.3

8

5/27/2020

1419

 

122

141.1

58.6

3

5/28/2020

1019

 

90

140.2

58.6

3

 

 

 

 

Data Source: Shelby County Health Department.

     

Bureau of Epidemiology and Emergency Preparedness

   

*Estimated COVID Hospitalized are COVID positive and 20% of Persons of Interest (suspected positives) in hospital with pending results.

*Estimated COVID ICU Hospitalized are COVID positive and 20% of Persons of Interest (suspected positives) in ICU with pending results.

The COVID ICU hospitalized cases are a subset of All hospital cases”

           

* Test Positivity Rate (%) For Date of Collection

     

As you look at those numbers, you probably notice that our positive case numbers and hospitalizations have gone up slightly. Rest assured, this slight rise doesn’t come as a surprise. We expected it. Our medical experts expected it, and we are monitoring those data points and others every day.

But, there is a still a wild card out there.

Will we rise to the challenge? Will we continue to take this seriously, and keep doing the necessary work to slow the spread of this virus?

I have no doubt that we can, but it’s up to all of us to come together by continuing to wear facial coverings when we’re out in public, washing our hands thoroughly and using hand sanitizer, and getting tested and staying home if we’re sick.

If we care about each other and want to continue the progress we have seen so far in reopening our economy, it is imperative that we continue to do the things I just mentioned.

We must all do our part by staying apart.

Yours,

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