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Oregon News
POLITICS
Oregon budget forecast revised due to economic uncertainty
Statesman Journal | By Dianne Lugo
Oregon lawmakers working on the 2025-2027 budget will have $755 million less than forecast in March due to economic uncertainty related to federal policy changes under the Trump Administration, state economists said May 14.
Revenue through the end of the current budget cycle, which ends June 30, is expected to come in short by $167 million, the economists said. And Oregon kicker refund projections decreased by $87.5 million from $1.72 billion to $1.63 billion.
The economists said lawmakers will have about $37.4 billion for the two-year budget, of which nearly a third comes from federal dollars. That is $2 billion less than Gov. Tina Kotek's $39.4 billion proposed budget but more than the $34.6 billion budget approved for the current budget cycle.
Oregon will face "a sluggish period of economic growth," which means instability in the labor market in the year ahead, according to Riccadonna.
"Recession risk is certainly elevated," Riccadonna said. "Risk of recession over the next 12 months, we would put at 25%."
Oregon lawmakers have $500 million less to spend, as economic uncertainty reigns
OPB | By Dirk Vanderhart
In a pivotal forecast, state economists said they expect Oregon will have around $500 million less to spend in the 2025-27 budget cycle than anticipated just three months ago.
That outlook — the final number lawmakers will use to ink a budget — could doom many spending bills that have been on ice in the Capitol awaiting their fates. But under a framework that top budget writers released in March, it likely won’t be enough to force meaningful cuts at state agencies.
The most immediate impact of Wednesday’s report is on the state’s budget. That document included some cuts. But top Democrats said that if the state paid for most ongoing services — including a record $11.4 billion for K-12 schools — and set aside roughly $550 million for reserves, lawmakers would still have $987 million left over “to support key investments.”
With the new forecast, the scope of those investments may be reduced. The budget framework also does not include a massive tax proposal Democrats are floating to pay for roads and bridges, a plan expected to take final form in coming days.
Lawmakers are wary that the national economy will slip into a recession, which could dim future revenue projections and force the Legislature into belt tightening. And Oregon, like other states, is waiting to see whether congressional Republicans will push through proposed cuts to Medicaid. That could drastically reduce federal money the state uses to provide health care to low-income people.
The chief economist said Oregon’s economy has so far not seen a rush in unemployment claims due to federal layoffs ordered by the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
“In aggregate we’re, shall I say, pleasantly surprised that there hasn’t been a more material consequence,” Riccadonna said. “It looks very much like a typical year for the state of Oregon.”
Federal chaos leaves Oregon’s economic outlook sluggish, uncertain, short hundreds of millions
Oregon Capital Chronicle | By Alex Baumhardt
Forecasted growth in the national and state economy has deteriorated in the last few months, leaving Oregon lawmakers to craft a two-year state budget with nearly $756 million less than they anticipated, according to the latest revenue forecast from the state’s Office of Economic Analysis.
Riccadonna said the rest of 2025 will be characterized by sluggish economic growth due to existing tariffs and uncertainty around the future of tariffs, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Tariffs disproportionately hurt coastal states and states with large ports like Oregon, he added.
Riccadonna was more optimistic about growth and revenues in 2026 and the first half of 2027 than the current fiscal year, assuming tariffs are lower, the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates and Congress passes a budget that includes extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — which reduced personal and corporate income taxes intending to stimulate spending and economic growth.
He said hard economic statistics impacted by tariffs, like unemployment or the nation’s GDP outlook, are not likely to show up in federal reports until June and July, leaving forecasters at the moment with heightened uncertainty in terms of understanding how all of Trump’s tariffs and cuts to federal agencies and the workforce plays out.
Trump cuts to the federal workforce have so far not caused the state’s unemployment rate to tick up, but have hit local economies, Riccadonna said, mostly in eastern Oregon.
Oregon’s economic outlook sours, leaving state lawmakers with millions less to spend than previously expected
Oregon Live | By Sami Edge, Carlos Fuentes
The drop in expected resources is largely due to a nearly $500 million decline in projected personal income taxes at the end of this budget cycle and the first two quarters of the next one, Kennedy said. Decreases in Oregonian’s employment rates, wage growth and capital gains will all contribute, he said. Lawmakers will also have about $250 million less to spend in the next budget because they already spent it this legislative session, Kennedy said.
Uncertainty caused by Trump’s rollcoaster pledges and actions on tariffs is the biggest factor driving the projected decline in Oregon’s projected revenue and volatility about how precipitous it in fact will be, state economists said.
Export-dependent Oregon is particularly sensitive to major trade policies, which directly affect personal income taxes and state labor trends, economists said. On the other hand, projected revenue from corporate activity taxes and lottery sales, which are less volatile, remain in line with earlier estimates, Kennedy said.
“It’s time to stop blaming D.C. and start fixing what Democrats broke here at home,” Senate Republican Leader Daniel Bonham of The Dalles said in a statement. “Oregon’s problem isn’t a lack of money. It’s a lack of leadership.”
Oregon lawmakers pass law to protect older workers from age-based job discrimination
KOIN | By Aimee Plante
Oregon lawmakers want to make it illegal to ask questions that could reveal an applicant’s age in a new effort to limit discrimination for older workers.
It is already illegal to turn down a job applicant for their age, but House Bill 3187 would prohibit employees from asking for details like a job seeker’s birthday or graduation year until they make a job offer.
New law bans Oregon employers from asking for applicants’ age
OPB | By Bryce Dole
Lawmakers in both legislative chambers have passed House Bill 3187, which proponents say will help curb age discrimination. The bill passed through the Oregon Senate Tuesday on a vote of 20-3, with three Republicans voting yes, including Senate Minority Leader Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles.
The Oregon Racing Commission No Longer Wants Oregonians to Know the Sources of Its Funding
Willamette Week | By Nigel Jaquiss
The Oregon Racing Commission, which regulates an animal racing industry that has shrunk to a few county fair meets and a lot of internet betting (“Track Addicts,” WW, May 17, 2023), recently decided to stop disclosing the specific sources of most of its funding.
Oregon Will Finally Exit the Dog-Racing Business
Willamette Week | By Nigel Jaquiss
Gov. Tina Kotek shut the door this week on Oregon’s large, if largely invisible, role in the rapidly declining sport of greyhound racing.
On May 7, Kotek signed House Bill 3020, which, according to a staff summary, “prohibits any person from wagering on the outcome of a greyhound or other dog race, or accept or facilitate such wagering, regardless of the location where the race takes place.”
The bill might seem confusing or even unnecessary, given that greyhounds haven’t raced in Oregon for more than two decades. For much of the 20th century, dog racing drew big crowds in Oregon. Multnomah Greyhound Park in Wood Village held more than 18,000 people and had a seating capacity of more than 6,000. But declining interest and strong criticism from animal rights activists led to the park’s closure in 2004.
This year, Kotek asked lawmakers to fix SB 1504 to make it crystal clear that Oregon would stop facilitating dog racing, regardless of where the bettors or tracks might be located. The bill sailed through both chambers.
Hearing on Dog-and-Cat Research Bill Draws Crowd Aiming to Close OHSU’s Primate Center
Willamette Week | By Anthony Effinger
Animal rights advocates crowded a committee hearing in the Oregon House of Representatives today and pressed legislators to amend a bill banning painful research on dogs and cats in order to close Oregon Health & Science University’s primate center.
A total of 1,660 people submitted written testimony on the bill, most of them seeking closure of the Oregon National Primate Research Center, a 200-acre facility in Hillsboro.
Animal rights advocates and medical ethicists have turned up the heat on the primate center this year, running ads on television and radio showing grim scenes of monkeys in small cages. Earlier this year, they flooded Oregon Health Authority regulators with comments aimed at forcing OHSU to close the primate center as a condition of buying Legacy Health, a deal that died when the parties called it off last week.
Malheur County is on the brink of becoming a ‘news desert’ as local papers close, change hands
OPB | By Antonio Sierra
On the far east side of the state, Malheur County is one of Oregon’s poorest and most sparsely populated counties. It’s at risk of seeing its entire news ecosystem wither away.
It’s the same story across much of the state. University of Oregon researcher Regina Lawrence said the media outlets left standing are struggling to keep up.
“There just aren’t the resources that there once were,” she said. “There’s fewer reporters covering local communities than ever. The underlying story is: you might have one, you might have two, you might have three outlets, but you also need to look at what are they actually able to produce.”
Opinion: Legislature must follow through on promised home care for kids with disabilities
The Oregonian | By Kearns Moore, a leader in Advocates for Disability Supports
It’s time for the Legislature to put its money where its mouth is — and pass Senate Bill 538.
Known as “Tensy’s Law,” SB 538 would allow the state’s highest needs children to actually receive the paid home care that the state is legally obligated to provide. It would do so by making a commonsense change to hire the only caregivers who work morning and night, snow days and sick days: the children’s parents.
Under Oregon law, the state is supposed to assess children with intellectual and developmental disabilities, determine how many more hours per month of medical and behavioral health care they require than a typically developing child and then pay for a worker to provide that care. The idea behind funding home care support with Medicaid dollars was to address disabled children’s unique needs, set them on a more independent trajectory and prevent families from having to put their children in expensive out-of-home facilities.
But for years, Oregon has fallen short of this obligation. Instead, the state’s inability to provide qualified workers has resulted in psychological anguish, impoverished and broken families, and poor health outcomes for the child and their unpaid caregivers.
Portland mayor Keith Wilson’s $8.5B budget relies on these political sleights of hand
Oregon Live | By Shane Dixon Kavanaugh
Portland Mayor Keith Wilson appeared to pull a fiscal rabbit out of his hat last week when he produced an $8.5 billion proposed budget that avoided most devasting cuts despite months of dire warnings about deficits.
Wilson’s financial blueprint seeks to vastly expand the city’s shelter system and protect youth sports programs. It proposes more money for cops, street sweeping and graffiti removal. And it would shrink the city’s workforce by dozens instead of the hundreds that officials had suggested might be needed to close a projected $150 million shortfall between the general fund and other municipal services.
Yet the scaffolding to stand up the mayor’s proposed budget is far from stable and relies on a series of short-term fixes, fee increases and decisions that have already rankled members of the Portland City Council who will have the final say on whether to approve the mayor’s proposal.
21 bills signed into Oregon law by Gov. Kotek on Monday
KGW | By Amy-Xiaoshi DePaola
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signed around 20 bills into law Monday. Most involve reworking data sharing and submission requirements, as well as changes to the Psychiatric Security Review Board and selling certain drugs to minors.
CRIME & PUBLIC SAFETY
Federal judge in Oregon rules arrest of Venezuelan man under Alien Enemies Act illegal
Oregon Live | By Maxine Bernstein
A federal judge in Portland ruled Tuesday that the government had illegally arrested a Venezuelan man in Portland under the Alien Enemies Act using “shoot first and ask questions later” tactics that violated the basic rule of law.
ECONOMY
Keeping Oregon Accountable audit: $1.8 billion in accounting errors
Statesman Journal | By Anastasia Mason
State agencies in Oregon made $1.8 billion in accounting errors during the 2024 budget year, according to an audit report from the Secretary of State's Office released May 13.
Auditors also identified $5.5 million in potentially improper spending of federal funds.
Of 23 previous findings, 39%, or nine, had been corrected. Steps had been taken to address the remaining 14, auditors found.
Other states are trying to lure Oregon businesses away. A recent study says it's working
KGW | By Jamie Parfitt, Kevin Benavides
Factors like high taxes and a burdensome regulatory system have made Oregon companies more receptive to the advances of out-of-state recruiters, the UO survey found. More and more Oregon companies are being lured to invest elsewhere, either by expanding their out-of-state presence or relocating operations entirely, according to a recent study. States often compete with one another to attract big employers, and the study's findings suggest that efforts to recruit companies from Oregon are working.
Nearly a quarter of responding businesses reported being approaching by out-of-state recruiters, and more than two-thirds of those either expanded their presence outside of Oregon or packed up and moved. Many said that they were already considering relocation prior to being wooed. Out of the total respondents, 61% had expanded within the last five years, and 32% expanded both within and outside of Oregon. In terms of dollar amounts, the UO institute estimates that nearly $4 billion of total private investment went into recent expansions, and up to $3 billion of that was spent outside of Oregon.
HOUSING
State Policy Stands in the Way of a Major Housing Expansion on the Eugene Waterfront
Willamette Week | By Nigel Jaquiss
The threat: that developers will have to pay Oregon’s prevailing wage rate—i.e., union wages—and meet cumbersome, expensive reporting requirements on the unbuilt plots of land. Typically, the law requires developers to pay prevailing wage on public works projects or affordable housing projects funded by more than $750,000 in public money or that are more than four stories tall.
The Eugene Riverfront project isn’t any of those things (although developers plan some affordable housing in later stages). Instead, the dispute is over planned development that would be, like the Portal, market-rate housing built with private capital.
But the threat looms anyway because of a ruling BOLI made in 2021 on the project. In that ruling, the agency determined that because the city of Eugene will spend $35 million to install streets, utilities and parks that benefit the 16-acre parcel, the entire development, including all private development, should be considered a public works project and thus subject to Oregon prevailing wage rate law—even if some parcels aren’t developed for many years.
Oregon lawmakers propose state loan fund to spur more apartment construction
Oregon Live | By Jonathan Bach
A bill in the Oregon Senate aims to make new apartment projects on the margin viable in exchange for affordable units. Senate Bill 684 would establish a fund, seeded with state dollars, for apartment developers to tap low-interest loans. The loan fund was inspired by a similar program in Montgomery County, Maryland. Championed by Sen. Khanh Pham, D-Portland, the bill has garnered bipartisan support, advancing out of two committees so far and now before the Joint Committee on Ways and Means.
EDUCATION
Murmurs: More Students Choose Alternatives to PPS
Willamette Week
At a May 12 meeting of the Portland Public Schools Board policy committee, committee chair Julia Brim-Edwards sounded the alarm on the district’s capture rate—the percentage of kids living within the district who enroll in PPS schools. In answer to a question from Brim-Edwards about enrollment decline fueling the district’s $40 million budget shortfall, district officials wrote that the capture rate of students enrolling in PPS schools this academic year was 69% for high school, 71% for middle school, and 75% for elementary school.
The news also comes as PPS’s enrollment is dipping faster than at school districts statewide.
NATURAL RESOURCES & WILDFIRE
An architect of Oregon’s wildfire map on why he now supports repealing it
OPB | By Courtney Sherwood
Jeff Golden is a Democratic state senator from the Rogue Valley. He voted to create the map in 2021, now he’s voted to get rid of it. Golden joined OPB’s “Think Out Loud” on Tuesday to talk about both of those votes.
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT
Aumsville, Oregon approves utility bill increase for wastewater plant
Statesman Journal | By Bill Poehler
Residents of Aumsville will soon pay about $36 a month more on their utility bills to help cover the costs of a $28 million wastewater treatment plant the city is required to build to meet environmental standards.
Higher prices, rolling blackouts: The Northwest is bracing for the effects of a lagging green energy push
OPB | By Tony Schick, Monica Samayoa
Electric companies in Oregon and Washington are hurtling toward deadlines to stop using power generated by coal, gas and other fuels that contribute to global warming. Yet the states are nowhere near achieving their goals, and the dramatic consequences are already being felt.
During a winter storm in January 2024, for example, the Northwest barely had enough power to meet demand as homeowners cranked up electric heaters and energy prices surged to more than $1,000 per megawatt-hour, or 18 times higher than the usual price. Power lines were so congested that owners of the transmission network made an extra $100 million selling access to the highest bidder.
Price spikes like this are one reason customers of major utilities in Oregon are paying 50% more on their power bills than they were in 2019. The number of utility customers disconnected last year for failure to pay soared to 70,000, the highest number on record.
Oregon, Washington trail almost every state in adding green energy
Oregon Live | By Tony Schick
Oregon, Kotek said, had been “leading the way for years on courageous state policies to fight climate change.” Along with neighboring Washington state, Oregon has set an ambitious mandate for electric utilities to be carbon neutral within the next two decades. “It’s going to take all of us working together finding innovative solutions, no matter the obstacles, to confront the climate crisis,” the governor said, “and we are not turning back.”
But the reality is not nearly as inspiring as Kotek made it sound. For all their progressive claims, Oregon and Washington trail nearly all other states in adding new sources of renewable energy. Iowa, a Republican-led state with roughly the same population and usable volume of wind as Oregon, has built enough wind farms to generate three times as much wind power. What’s held the Northwest back is a bottleneck Oregon and Washington leaders paid little attention to when they set out to go 100% green, an investigation by ProPublica and Oregon Public Broadcasting found: The region lacks the wiring to deliver new sources of renewable energy to people’s homes, and little has been done to change that.
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