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To contact me, please click here: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov

November 4, 2024

Dear Neighbors and Friends,

As I write this, it’s already Election Day on the East Coast. (OK, the polls haven’t open yet, but it is technically November 5^th there.) Twenty-four hours from now, we may have a decent sense of the outcomes in many races, even here in Oregon.  Others, perhaps even the presidency, may still be up in the air.  We shall see.

As I’m sure you’ve experienced, it’s all too easy to become obsessed with the outcomes of tomorrow’s elections.  The polls are inconclusive (which is perhaps a good thing, as they’re less likely to send us down a rabbit hole of self-deception this year), and conjectures about. The winners of the closest races will most likely be decided by turnout, by those registered voters who not only are likely voters but actual voters. We’ll soon see the results of the most important poll—the actual vote.  We’ll see which campaigns have done a better job of convincing and inspiring actual voters to actually vote.

If you’ve been able to help with that effort in some way, please accept my deepest thanks.

As you’ll see, I wound up getting a bit carried away in this newsletter with providing you with information about voting here in Oregon, what we can expect on election night, what the schedule is for Multnomah County's reporting of election results, what we can expect after election night, and what protections have been put in place to help guarantee a safe and secure election.  I’ve gathered up a number of resources that I hope you’ll find useful (and reassuring).

But just to prove that I have been reading a few things other than election news, the newsletter does conclude with links to a few articles that actually have nothing to do with elections! I had also wanted to write about DEQ’s just-released report on progress in making Portland’s Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) Hub safer over time, but I’ve run out of the day and want to get this off before Election Day. I’ll provide more info on that soon.  But for now, here’s a link to DEQ's report.

And finally, I do want to share a piece of sad news that we received over the weekend. We’ve lost a real warrior for the environment, wildlife in particular, with the far-too-premature passing of Bob Sallinger on Thursday. Bob led so many efforts to preserve and improve habitat for birds and other animals and advance the cause of coexistence.  Most recently, he was instrumental in the designation of the Elliott State Forest as a research forest (You’ll find more on the Elliott in one of the articles referenced in the Links section at the end of the newsletter.) He allied with the Legislature’s Environmental Caucus on an effort to increase funding for wildlife coexistence last session and was planning to do more of the same in 2025.  Another reason that his passing at the age of 57 is such a tragedy.

Willamette Week’s Nigel Jaquiss provided an excellent profile of Bob an excellent profile of Bob.  I encourage you to read it and think about the enormous difference that a committed individual can make.

Tomorrow Is Election Day: Time to Vote (and Verify)!

If you’re a reader of this newsletter, then I know you know that tomorrow is election day, and you’ve probably already voted.  If you haven’t, you’re most likely a Portlander and are probably still wrestling over whom to rank as #5 and #6 for City Council. Yes, you still have time to make that decision,

BUT it’s really too late now to put your ballot in the mail. True, the Legislature recently changed our procedures to allow a ballot to be counted as long as it's postmarked on election day (versus the previous requirement that a ballot be received at Elections by the end of election day).  However, at this point I wouldn’t count on USPS actually getting that ballot postmarked tomorrow. 

So, to be safe, you’ll want to drop your ballot off in a secure ballot drop location. Here's a locator tool from Oregon Elections for the state as a whole.  And here’s a directory specific to Multnomah County with all the sites (including county libraries, with an indication of which are currently closed for construction).

Once you've voted, you can check oregonvotes.gov/myvote to see if your ballot has been received or processed. Voters in Clackamas, Marion, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties can also sign up for text or email alerts through BallotTrax. (I signed up for BallotTrax some years ago and did get my text alert a few days after mailing my ballot.  I just checked OregonVotes and received the following message: Your ballot was received on October 21, 2024.)

Contact County Elections if it’s been a few days and your ballot has not yet been received. Here’s the contact info for Multnomah County Elections.

And by the way, however things shake out, we’ll probably see renewed interest in the elimination of the Electoral College via state passage of National Popular Vote legislation, which commits the state’s electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote. (It would only go into effect once enough states have passed such legislation to assure that a majority of the nation’s electoral votes will always go to the winner of the popular vote). If you receive a request from a national organization asking you to contact your legislator to urge them to support NPV, know that Oregon has already done that, and you don't need to write us.  In fact, I was the Chief Sponsor of SB 870, which passed in 2019.  Now we just need more states to pass similar legislation.

When Will We Know the Results?

That all depends on how close the races are and which races we’re talking about.

In 2020 it took four days for us to know for sure that Joe Biden had secured majorities in enough states to win the necessary 270 votes in the Electoral College. In part that was due to the overwhelming number of people who voted by mail in states that had very little experience with that kind of voting.  I hear that things should be faster this year because of smaller numbers of mail-in votes nationally (though there has been a big increase in early in-person voting, which has fewer steps required to tabulate) and added expertise with this kind of voting.  Still, if the election is as close as polling still suggests, it could take a while.

Here's an article from today’s Washington Post providing an overview of the expected timelines, particularly for the swing states.

Here’s one from the National Conference of State Legislatures on four trends to look out for on Election Night. And a glimpse into NCSL's crystal ball on what we can expect from the legislative and gubernatorial races.

For state and local elections here in Oregon, the answers will depend on the race and the ballot measure.  We will have a clear sense of the winners of most races on election night because most races are not going to be close; in fact, many are uncontested.  We will likely know the outcome of those right after the polls close at 8 p.m. 

It will help that county officials are now able to do everything needed to prepare all the mail ballots as they come in—verifying signatures, verifying legitimacy, removing ballots, etc. They just need to be run through the tabulation machines on election day. (Not every state can do that, Many must wait until November 5^th to initiate this process, so it will take them much longer.)

But among the contests that we care most about, the results will be much closer, and we may not know the answers until midnight or later, or over the succeeding days. Despite universal access to mail balloting here in Oregon, many of us prefer to wait until Election Day to cast our ballots, and those must all be processed before they’re tabulated. And some will continue to trickle in over the next few days (because they were postmarked but not delivered on the 5^th or they were dropped off in a neighboring county’s drop box).

And a further complication for those of use in Portland is that we are using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) for the first time for City Council and Mayor.  As I understand it, it will require a number of rounds of tabulation (with voters ranking their top 3 for Mayor and top 6 for Council). That will take time. (By the way, the records for each round of voting will be reported and maintained.)

Fortuitously, legislators have just received the following informational bullet points from Multnomah County regarding its reporting plans.

• Multnomah County will post the first preliminary results at 8pm on Election Night. After that, we will post results by 6pm on Wed, Nov 6, by 6pm on Thursday, Nov 7, by 6pm on Friday, Nov 8. We will share updates regularly thereafter. Full results reporting schedule.
• Every results update will show which candidate – or, in the case of City Council, which three candidates– is leading in the contest based on the ballots that have been received and counted. Just as with other contests, results can shift as we receive and count more ballots. 
• Every time we release updates, we will run tabulation from scratch with all of the ballots that we have received up until that point. 
• In the first results update at 8pm on Election Day, we expect to have received and counted about 50% of the ballots. By the end of the day on the Thursday after Election Day, the County has typically received and counted about 90% of ballots.
• Results are not final until December 2, when Multnomah County certifies results. This is not unique to ranked choice voting – it’s how it works for all contests in all elections. 
• People can view sample RCV results reports here and at rcvresults.multco.us on election night. 

I ran into one of the City Council candidates at the final Portland Thorns match on Friday evening (All hail Christine Sinclair!), and she told me she doesn’t expect to know her fate before next Monday or Tuesday.  In an interview with Think Out Loud, the Multnomah County Elections Director was more optimistic that we’ll know by the end of this week.  We’ll see.

So What Can We Expect AFTER the Results Are Announced?

Returning to the presidential election, many of us are worried that we’ll be seeing a record amount of intimidation and outright barriers for those voting tomorrow.  And even more worried about the days thereafter, including fears of outright violence.  What can we expect?  What steps are being taken to make sure that the results are respected?

In general, we can say that Oregon’s leaders are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

Here’s an article reporting on steps being taken to prepare the police and National Guard for potential acts of violence.  You’ll also find links to two letters from public officials (including me), denouncing political violence and calling for electoral integrity to be upheld.

Not surprisingly, some of those who still argue that Oregon’s 2020 and 2022 elections were corrupted are already purveying misinformation about this current election and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system in general. These attacks are hurtful, and they're wrong. 

I can tell you that the folks working in our County Elections offices are incredibly hard-working, fair, and scrupulous. And our vote-by-mail system gets better with every election since the voters voted to put it in place.  Here’s a story from OPB about the rigorous processes in place once you put your ballot in a mail box or drop box. It’s an interesting read.

And here’s a link to Oregon's Election Integrity Website, with answers to a number of questions.

Notwithstanding the protections described above, we are continuing to see an expansion of election denialism and skepticism, fueled by social media, especially by Elon Musk and the platform formerly known as Twitter.  On that subject, here’s an article from the Washington Post, entitled “Four Years After ‘Stop the Steal,’ An Organized Army Emerges Online.”

On the positive side, we appear to better prepared to ward off these efforts than we were in 2020. Here’s an article from Stateline which discusses many of the safeguards that the states (and Congress) have put in place since then. 

Here’s a quick reference guide to Oregon's election laws, focusing on ways they protect us from unlawful acts.

And finally, here's a resource guide from the good people at the Bipartisan Policy Center on how various states are protecting the vote.

Additional Links of Interest 

• In a follow-up to the Capital Chronicle’s recent story about the State Land Board’s decision to allow the Elliott State Forest to enter a carbon market, the Chronicle has just reported that the first development agreement has been signed (making the Elliott the first state forest in the nation to generate revenue from its sequestration practices).
• Volunteers of America Oregon (VOA Oregon) has begun using two buildings at the former Multnomah University (which was taken over last year by Jessup University), at 8435 NE Glisan Street in Portland,. for residential services for women with children. VOA Oregon is in the middle of a fundraising effort to create a full campus of its own a couple of blocks away.   to provide needed support services for low-income Oregonians.  Read all about it here.
• The Oregon Housing Stability Council has just approved a $165 million investment to support the construction of eight new housing developments, delivering more than 550 affordable homes to communities statewide. These projects will include 465 new rental homes, 87 homes for low-income homebuyers, and offer rental assistance and support services for others. You can find details here.
• Many states are wrestling with the question of what to do with cell phones in schools. Should they be prohibited?  Should there be a single procedure for all schools in the state, or should individual districts be allowed to come up with their own policies?  Here's an update from NCSL  (the National Conference of State Legislatures).
• So what’s happening in Oregon? Some districts have already implemented policies. Others are considering it. Meanwhile, the Oregon Department of Education has just released a guidance report on elements should be considering. Here’s reporting from the Capital Chronicle and from OPB.
• Following elevated levels of respiratory illness in the Bay Area, counties have recently reinstated mask mandates at healthcare facilities. In some cases they apply only to health professionals, in others they include patients as well. Here's a story from the Mercury News.

Until next time,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301