February 19, 2024

Dear Neighbors and Friends,

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and were able to find a way to celebrate President’s Day today.

We certainly recognized President’s Day today at the Capitol, but only in passing.  For us it was just another long day in a short session.  Today marked the beginning of the third week of our five-week session.  Bills have for the most part moved out of their first chamber (or not), and if still alive they’re either in Ways and Means (if they come with a price tag) or headed to (if they haven’t already passed) the floor of their first chamber (Senate or House).

We are still grappling with the session’s biggest issue—what to do about Measure 110, the ballot measure that decriminalized personal possession of hard drugs in exchange for treating addiction as a health issue that required big investments in treatment and peer support.  Unfortunately, as you know, implementation of the measure has been slow and spotty (though we’re beginning to see some real progress), and it coincided with ongoing increases in the number of people living on the streets and a big spike in fentanyl coming to Oregon.  We’re now facing serious threats of a ballot measure that would make simple possession a serious misdemeanor and use the criminal justice system to address this problem.

In order to ward off this threat and find a better path, Democrats in the Legislature have been working on a proposal that would combine expanded access to “harm reduction” and withdrawal medications, expanded access to detox beds and ongoing treatment, along with making it easier to prosecute drug dealers. In addition, their plan would make possession a low-level misdemeanor, though the person charged would be provided alternatives to entering the criminal justice system. This approach is embodied in HB 4002, a committee bill by the Joint Committee on Addictions and Public Safety.

I hear that we’ll be seeing an update to HB 4002 in the next day or two.  We’ll see what it looks like.  I’ve made it clear to my colleagues that I’m skeptical of the efficacy of recriminalization and could only support it if it was accompanied by serious implementation of expanded treatment options and if there’s a “sunset” in three years—i.e., it would need to be either proactively renewed or modified during the 2027 session. If the new system works, great.  If not, we need to keep trying for a better approach.

I’ll let you know when we know more.

I’m happy to report that the other big issue of the short session—the Governor’s big Housing bill (SB 1537A)—is on track to a successful passage.  I’ve written about this one before.  The most challenging part of that bill was its section allowing a bypass to Oregon’s land-use system in certain cases, expanding urban growth boundaries in order to make more room for housing.  For many of us, it didn’t make sense to expand boundaries and open up new land for housing on the outskirts until we had done all that we could with the land inside the urban growth boundaries.  I want to again commend the Governor and her staff for continuing to work with us ever since the original form of the bill failed on the last day of the last session.  When the last agreement was put in place a little over a week ago (reducing the amount of land available for an automatic extension, clarifying that the crucial state-funded investments in “infrastructure” (water, sewer, and roads) needed to happen to develop available land inside the urban growth boundaries, we were able to move forward.  I will say that the new Environmental Caucus (more on that below) was very helpful in allowing us to reach consensus in these discussions with the Governor and environmentalists.

In tonight’s newsletter you’ll get an update on events in Senate Education, along with the sad fate of one of my personal priority bills (the one dealing with our greenhouse gas reduction goals), more work by the Environmental Caucus, info on Week 4 of the African Film Festival (indulging again in a point of personal privilege!), and the additional details coming out of the revenue forecast that I promised you. For those of you interested in the latest on COVID, there are some links to recent articles and studies as well.

If you have any questions or reactions to anything in tonight’s newsletter, or anything else related to session and our constituent-service work, please do reach out and let me know. 

Next (Zoom) Constituent Coffee March 2

March 2, a week from Saturday,, is the first Saturday in March, and that means time for another constituent coffee.

This being an odd-numbered month, it will be all-Zoom this time.

It will again run 9 a.m. to 10:30 (or so . . .).

You can register for the zoom here.

This coffee will be our last before the end of the 2024 legislative session.  By then I should not only be able to share with you the trajectory of the session, the bills that have died, the bills that have passed, the priorities that remain, what we can expect from the final week. I also look forward to hearing your reactions to work of the Legislature and answering any questions that you have.

Hope to see you there!

Education Omnibus Bill Headed to Ways and Means

As is usual during the short session, the Senate Committee on Education has a multi-part omnibus bill to address a number of lingering issues.  This time it is SB 1522A. It makes a number of technical fixes to bills that passed last year and that needed repair or clarification.  It also includes some items that passed out of committee last year but then got lost in the Ways and Means process.  It includes others that address timely issues that arose after the close of the last session.  Finally, it also directs studies and work-groups to prepare for the 2025 session.  Here is a section-by-section overview  of the issues addressed in the bill.

As you’ll see, it includes a number of compelling topics. One of the most compelling and timely, as a result of recent labor disputes, is the challenge of pinpointing just how much money we should be investing in public K-12 education.  We know that more is needed, particularly if we want to reduce class size while we’re also funding salary increases that keep up with inflation.  But just how much is needed?  And how do we make sure that it’s going where it can truly help students the most? Nation-wide analyses suggest that Oregon puts more of its state GDP into education than most states, yet we’re not meeting the requirements of the Quality Education Model.  And that model is by all accounts outdated and in need of correction and improvements to the way in which it is calculated. The same appears to be true of the way in which these funds are being distributed to and spent by local districts..

In order to get more clarity on where we are and where we should be, SB 1522 directs the Legislative Policy and Research Office to contract with a national research firm with expertise in state educational spending policy to give us some national perspective on funding best practices, and it will give us recommendations before the next legislative session that will help us move forward on the next K-12 budget appropriation.  

I’m happy to report that the bill passed out of committee unanimously on Tuesday.  Because some of the topics in it require funding, it awaits future action by the Joint Committee on Ways and Means before it can go to the Senate floor.  That’s the next step for me: making sure that the projected appropriation requirements are correct (and ideally as small as possible). 

Let me know if you have any questions about any of the issues addressed in the bill.

Environmental Caucus Sets Budget Priorities

In th last newsletter I let you know that the Legislature’s bicameral caucus focusing on Environment/Climate/Natural Resources issues released its policy priorities for the 2024 session. You’ll find them at the Caucus webpage (Go to Announcements and Materials and click on Year: 2024.)

Now that we have a better sense of available revenues, the Caucus is in the process of finalizing its budget priorities for this issue area.  We don’t yet know how much the Legislature will be able to invest for these purposes during this short session, but we wanted to identify consensus priorities in order to help the Ways and Means Co-Chairs and the Natural Resources Subcommittee Co-Chairs (Representative Khanh Pham and I). 

That list should be up on the Caucus website soon.

Emissions-Reduction Bill Will Not Move This Session

You may recall that one of my two personal bills, SB 1559, sought to update the greenhouse gas emissions goals that we’ve had in statute since 2007. They need to be aligned with current science, which says that our targets must reflect the goal of keeping warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius. This should have been done in last years Omnibus Climate bill (HB 3409), but a distracting dispute over language (“goal” vs. “aspiration”) caused that part of HB 3409 to be removed and consideration of it postponed to this year.

I thought I had found a workable compromise (use the term “goal” for the updates of existing reductions—which reflects existing language—and “aspiration” for a new element, getting to net-zero by 2050 via use of natural climate sequestration solutions with our natural and working lands).  Unfortunately, in the end my Republican colleagues could not accept this change and came out very strongly against it. 

This strong opposition had the makings of another distraction in a difficult session, so it is not moving to a vote this session.  I made that clear in the public hearing on Tuesday.  It’s disappointing, but sadly in the end I think it’s the right decision for this short session. Given that the effect of the bill was to modify our goals for 2030, 2040, and 2050, we can certainly wait until the 2025 session to do that. 

Unfortunately, the public hearing on this bill didn’t come up until the last fifteen minutes of Tuesday’s committee meeting, so there was only time for me, Representative Gamba, and a few supporters of the bill.

Nevertheless, a number of individuals and organizations did submit written testimony on the bill—42 in support and 19 in opposition.  Most of those in opposition remain skeptical of the scientific consensus on climate change and climate action. Oregon Business and Industry also came out in opposition, arguing that changing the goals could provoke state agencies to create new programs that could have a negative impact on business. 

I will point out that neither the existing goals nor the proposed updated goals require agencies to create new programs, though they do require the Oregon Climate Action Commission to track our progress (or lack of progress) in meeting those goals. Nevertheless, I do believe that if we see that we’re not doing enough to meet the goals we set, we need to come up with programs that help us make further progress.  If designed and done right, they will not hurt business.  In fact, they have the potential to save money and stimulate our rural economies.

You can check out all the submitted written testimony here. It provides a nice snapshot of the current debate over climate action in this state.

I do hope that we’ll finally see an updating of the goals in the 2025 long session.  It can then be part of what I hope will be a larger, more comprehensive climate-action policy bill.  Unfortunately, I won’t be able to be part of that 2025 bill, as I’ll no longer be in the Legislature.  But perhaps I’ll be able to help get it going before I leave. And I know that there will be others to take it on and get it passed.

More On the Senate Education Front

Along with SB 1552, six other bills successfully passed out of Senate Education, all but one of them on a unanimous vote. Two are headed directly to the Senate floor, while the remaining four must join SB 1552 in Ways and Means.  Here’s a rundown on them all:

Headed to the Senate Floor:

SB 1558: Makes clarifying changes to SB 819 (2023), the controversial bill from last year designed to ensure that all students have access to a full school day if they and their parents so desire, irrespective of their disability.  SB 1558 makes it clear that students who have otherwise completed their required credits can be released to work or take college credits during the school day. It received a unanimous committee vote on Thursday and should receive its Senate floor vote soon.

SB 1583:This bill has become one of the most controversial of all the bills so far this short session. It touches on a subject that has become a feature of the culture wars that are pervasive right now.  It prohibits discrimination when selecting textbooks, instructional materials, program materials, and library books for use within Oregon public schools.  It prohibits districts from banning textbooks, library materials, or other instructional materials because they tell stories or include the histories of groups protected from discrimination by Oregon law (i.e., by their race, gender, ethnicity, or disability, or because they are gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender).  We have seen such prohibitions and book bans proliferating around the country.  SB 1583, whose chief sponsor is Senator Lew Frederick, will ensure that such bans do not occur here in Oregon.

We had a lengthy public hearing on the bill last Tuesday, with many people signing up to speak for and against. Those speaking in support outnumbered those speaking against.  Most of the oppositional testimony emphasized the rights of local districts to make decisions that reflect their local values and prohibit children from having access to materials and perspectives that don’t reflect those local values.  Those speaking in support emphasized the importance of giving children access to historical truths and a variety of perspectives. More than a thousand pieces of written testimony came in, again with a strong majority being in support of the bill.  You can find the testimony here.

SB 1583 passed out of committee last Thursday on a partisan 3-2 vote.  Republican members of the committee indicated that they might be filing a “minority report,” which would have slowed down its passage on the floor.  However, earlier today they let us know that they had changed their mind.  The bill will likely be voted on this Thursday or next Monday. If it passes, its next stop is a House committee, and then potentially onto the House floor and then the Governor’s desk. I’ll let you know how it goes.

Going to Ways and Means

SB 1502 Requires school district, community college, and university boards to post recordings of their meetings online to ensure public access.

SB 1532 Directs the Department of Education to develop a Student Success Plan for Immigrants and Refugees.

SB 1592 Appropriates $6 million to Oregon universities to develop and support much-needed programs and students in Behavioral Health.

SB 1551 Gives temporary access to the Oregon Promise for students in the High School "COVID Cohorts" of 2020 and 2021, even though they didn't go immediately to community college following graduation.

Had Public Hearings But Won't Move This Session

SB 1534 From Senator Robinson, removes the requirement that reading teachers be licensed.to teach reading.

SB 1535 From Senator Robinson, allows school maintenance work to be performed by students.

SB 1550 Incorporates agency staff of the Teachers Standards and Practices Commission into the Oregon Department of Education. Following a request from the Governor to hold off on doing this right now, I chose not to schedule a vote on this committee bill.

I’ll provide you with more updates on the education bills in the next newsletter.

More On the Revenue/Economic Forecast

I reported on the February 7 revenue forecast in the last newsletter. We saw a stable forecast, overall in line with the last one.  This stability appears to be connected to the change in forecast methodology used by the Office of Economic Analysis and suggests that we won’t be seeing the big unanticipated revenue gains that we’ve seen in the last few forecasts—leading to record kicker payouts.  On the other hand, corporate revenues continue to exceed expectations, reflecting a very solid economy, changes in the federal tax code, and corporate decisions to take advantage of those federal changes.

I promised to give you more of the details of what we learned from their analysis of the state of the economy.  Here you go:

• Inflation has come down to the level desired by the Federal Reserve, and we can expect to see interest rates start to come down in the near future. That will trigger further investments in homes and infrastructure, providing further stimulus to the economy.
• The U.S. economy has recovered from the pandemic better than any of the leading industrial countries.
• That is also true for Oregon, which is outperforming the national economy.
• Oregon may be considered to be at full employment right now, considering those who are looking for work. There are plenty of jobs out there. 
• For the state’s economy to grow further, we’ll need either more workers ready to enter (or re-enter) the workforce or increased per-worker worker productivity (the result of more automation, efficiency, and/or increased skill), most likely a combination of both.
• Oregon is among the nation’s leaders right now in terms of productivity. However, available workforce will be a problem in the future.
• Oregon’s death rate exceeds our birth rate (Oregon has one of the lowest birth rates in the country), and the number of new workers coming into the state (though still projected to increase somewhat) continues to decline.
• Our options are to increase productivity further (requiring more investment in equipment and technology), attract more new workers (including immigrants) into the state, and increase the skill/higher education level of Oregonians who have traditionally not accessed that training and education.
• County-level data shows overall good economic conditions nearly everywhere, though a couple of anomalies in the data (e.g. downturns in Morrow County) suggest that the data may need further examination.
• Although we’re seeing an increase in business failures, we’re seeing a greater number of new businesses being created in Oregon.
• As a result, the net number of new businesses has continued to improve over where it was prior to the pandemic.
• We can expect the General Fund to temporarily decline next biennium—the result of the huge kicker tax credits going out this tax season. We’re then projected to see it grow modestly but steadily over the following biennia.
• We can expect changes in the methodology being used to project changes in the Corporate Income Tax, as we saw in the change to personal income tax. If so, that will increase overall tax revenues but reduce the chance of the corporate kicker kicking (not good for schools, since the corporate kicker goes to K-12 education).
• The economists are projecting big increases in estate tax collections, the result of a small number of very large estates, despite the efforts of very competent estate planners.
• We’re currently seeing declines in “Vice Revenues,” especially from tobacco and liquor taxes, and to some extent marijuana taxes.
• Lottery revenues are overall stable, though we did see a $1 million reduction in video poker revenues as a result of the week-long ice storm.
• The new Corporate Activities Tax, which funds the Student Success Act programs, is seeking increased collections.
• We continue to be building up our reserves:
  • A little over $1 billion at the end of the 2023-25 biennium in the Education Stability Fund;
  • $1.8 billion in the Rainy Day Fund
  • Total reserves (including the Education Stability Fund, the Rainy Day Fund, and the projected Ending Fund Balance) are forecast at $4.5 billion, or a very generous 17.6% of General Fund. This is a huge change from when I first came in, when we entered the Great Recession with virtually no reserves.

For more details, check out the Office of Economic Analysis Forecast Website .  And here’s a link to the forecast hearing. You can watch it there.

Time for Week 4: Cascade Festival of African Films!!!

The five-week African Film Festival reached the halfway mark last weekend.  Viewers were presented with feature films from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Zambia, along with shorts from around the continent. Director Mmakgozi Anita Tau from Botswana was a guest of the Festival for an entire week, commenting on films by other African directors and presenting her own film For Them That Prey (2022),

Week Four begins on Thursday evening with the feature documentary Sisterhood (2022) from Sierra Leone, Focused on twin sisters who move to the Middle East in pursuit of work, the film is part of Generation Africa, a documentary project centering on youth and migration.

The weekend continues with Our Lady of the Chinese Shop (2022) from Angola on Friday evening.  The Saturday (Family Fest) matinee is Hawa (2022), the story of an albino teen who lives with her African expatriate family in Paris and dreams of being adopted by Michelle Obama.  The weekend concludes on Saturday evening with All the Colors of the World Are Between Black and White (2023) from Nigeria, whose protagonist is a young man struggling with the reality that being gay in Nigeria is punishable by up to fourteen years of imprisonment.

As always, the films at CFAF are free of charge.  This week’s films will all be shown at PCC-Cascade.  Check out the schedule at africanfilmfestival.org for more details.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need more info.

COVID Update: Additional Links

• NBC News reports that the CDC may be recommending an additional COVID vaccine booster for certain groups (seniors and people with weak immune systems) this spring.
• Here’s the latest on potential new national rules for going out in public with COVID. They follow the policy already encouraged by the Oregon Health Authority (though many Oregonians probably didn't know that Oregon's recommendations had changed).
• And here’s an article on the same subject from the Washington Post.
• JAMA Network (from the Journal of the American Medical Association) reports on a study showing that more physically active adults have been less likely to develop serious cases of COVID.
• And finally, here’s  an opinion piece from MedPage Today from a retired physician, entitled “COVID’s Latest Adaptation: It Has Lulled Us to Sleep.”

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301