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Hello Neighbors and Friends,
My “Monday Newsletter” is arriving on Tuesday this week because Monday was Labor Day. Did you know Oregon was the very first state to pass a law recognizing Labor Day in 1887? I hope everyone enjoyed the long sunny weekend and paused at some point to have a good thought for the working men and women who contribute so much to our communities.
I began my Saturday in Toledo. I met with Mayor Rod early in the morning and visited both the First Saturday Art Walk and the season’s final Art, Oysters, and Brews fair. Before leaving, organizers invited me to show my face through one of their photo boards. Perhaps I should have looked at the front before agreeing…
Saturday afternoon, I was at the Bijou in Lincoln City for a screening of “Elemental” an important documentary inviting us to reimagine our relationship with wildfire. Seeing the fires and their aftermath was hard, especially for local survivors in the theater. But the movie also talked about defensible space, fire resistant building, and forest practices. You can watch a two-minute excerpt here. Afterwards I was part of a “q&a” conversation about our experiences here and recovery from the Echo Mountain Fires.
Watch for a mailer from my office in the next two weeks reviewing legislative actions to address resilience and recovery.
On a much brighter note, I also watched a new documentary this week called “The Forgotten Story of Pixieland: The Oregon Coast Amusement Park”. This one-hour YouTube video is well worth a watch. And while the story is focused in northern Lincoln County, it details important parts of our broader coastal history, including the evolution of our small towns into cities, the effect of improved coastal highways, tourism as a critical economic sector, and the potential for conflict between development and sustainable stewardship in our sensitive coastal habitat. Sounds boring but it wasn’t! The film was well crafted and very entertaining. Watch closely and you may even discover the answer to one of my favorite mysteries – the “missing miles” and why our highway mile markers jump from 105 to 111 just north of Lincoln City.
I finished my Saturday sojourn at a fundraising concert for the Oregon Coast Jazz Party at the PAC in Newport.
The biggest government news this week was Wednesday’s presentation of the quarterly revenue forecast. Oregon’s economy is running strong. The market is stabilizing. The legislature's future budgets should continue to reflect that success.
State agencies have been working on their 2023-25 budget requests. Those requests will be adjusted by whoever becomes Oregon’s next Governor. But just over the horizon, there is tremendous uncertainty about the economic outlook and resulting state revenues – far more uncertainty than usual, according to State Economist Mark McMullen.
McMullen and fellow economist Josh Lehner told lawmakers that Oregon’s economic outlook is unusually difficult to predict and that will make it particularly challenging to accurately budget for state government in the coming years. They report Oregon’s economy will sag as consumer spending and employment growth sour. Just when and how severe that downturn might be remains a matter of debate.
In the most simple terms, if we approve budgets and then revenues fall short, the legislature will have to come back and cut programs or services. In Oregon we don’t spend more than we receive.
In the short run, Oregon’s tax and lottery revenues continue to far outpace economists’ predictions, with the state now expected to take in $600 million more than forecasters predicted just three months ago.
In Oregon, increased revenues in one year are not used to offset losses in other years. A unique constitutional requirement called the “kicker” requires that income exceeding projections be returned to taxpayers.
Booming tax revenues from capital gains and businesses could push the state’s “kicker” tax rebate up by another $500 million. That would bring the total “kicker” rebate to $3.5 billion, which taxpayers would receive as a credit or refund on their 2023 taxes when they file in 2024.
Inflation is far and away our top concern new polling finds, as Oregonians remain acutely concerned about their own finances.
A quarter of likely Oregon voters in a new poll by DHM Research listed cost of living as the biggest consideration in their choice for governor. That ranked far above other hot-button issues, among them homelessness (13%), crime (11%), abortion and climate change (10% apiece).
The state’s tools for addressing rising prices are limited. The main economic forces driving inflation — snarled global supply chains, the national labor shortage, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 shutdowns in China – are beyond what Oregon’s elected leaders can control.
There are signs inflation is easing — gas prices have dropped substantially — but still, 44% of voters say Oregon’s economy is getting worse and just 16% say it’s getting better. On the upside, two-thirds of voters say it’s a good or very good time to be looking for work. That makes sense, because Oregon job vacancies far outnumber unemployed workers.
McMullen said that although roughly half of Americans believe the country is already in a recession, “the data doesn’t support that.” Americans’ actions so far contradict what they are telling pollsters, McMullen said, and so far both businesses and individuals continue to spend freely on goods and services.
You can watch the entire 90 minute presentation here.
When my Honda Hybrid hit 170,000 miles, I decided it was time for a replacement. I got the same model but now it came with all the new “bells and whistles”. The car told me if I was straying from my lane, exceeding the speed limit, if another car was in my blind spot, or if I was following too closely. I told a friend it was almost like being married to my car…
A new survey from AAA reports that 77% of drivers favor these improvements. But a whopping 85% say they are unsure about riding in self-driving cars with no steering wheel or pedals. I find myself in pretty much the same place. Automated vehicles have the potential to prevent crashes and save lives. But we aren’t there yet. AAA research also shows the new self-driving systems failed to consistently avoid collisions.
All of this new technology makes our cars safer. But the sad fact is that driving is not safer these days. Across Oregon, 581 people died in car crashes last year, a 15% increase from 2020. Daily headlines and local news suggest 2022 may be worse. When you are out on our roadways, please be cautious, patient, and courteous!
Oh – and listen to your car!
Last week, Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum received a text from her bank asking if she’d recently spent $750 at Walmart. She hastily texted back “NO,” and almost immediately her phone rang.
On Wednesday, the Department of Justice’s “Scam Alert Network” posted a notice by Rosenblum urging Oregonians to beware of phony bank scammers. The Oregon Department of Justice has reports from consumers who, like Rosenblum, had received calls and text messages purporting to be from their financial institution.
The bad guys are out there and every day are increasingly creative and increasingly convincing. To avoid scams:
- Do not give anyone you don’t know personal information, including your Social Security number, credit card or bank account information.
- Do not click on links from someone you don’t know in an email. You could end up with an electronic virus.
- If you get a call from someone who says they work at your bank, hang up and call your bank. Do not call a number they give you because it’s likely to be phony.
- Ignore instructions to text “STOP” or “NO” to prevent future texts.
- If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is
To file a complaint or report a scam, visit oregonconsumer.gov or call 877-877-9392.
I usually try to stay in our large district rather than travel to events but this coming week will be an exception.
Tuesday I’m promoting our wine industry at a groundbreaking in Carlton and then joining a gathering with Congressman Blumenauer in Portland. Thursday I’ll be part of a panel discussion on Wind Energy and potential conflicts with the fishing industry in Portland. And Saturday Susie and I are helping with a fundraiser for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society’s Dare to Dream Project in Newberg.
Closer to home, we’ll attend two concerts with the Siletz Bay Music Festival and a Chamber lunch in Newport. There is also a variety of meetings covering the Blue Economy, the affect of gross receipts taxes on the coin and bullion industry, a discussion on renewable energy, an update on problems at the Oregon Primate Research Center, a meeting of the Governors Commission on Senior Services, and for fun, a birthday party with friends.
I want to conclude my letter today by acknowledging the devastating shooting in Bend last Sunday evening and offer my sincere condolences to the victims, their families, and the impacted community. All Oregonians deserve to live without fear while grocery shopping, commuting, learning, or gathering to worship. We must continue to work toward life-saving policies that prevent gun violence, preserve the rights of responsible owners, and keep our families safe.
Stories like these have become all too common in our country, but we cannot allow ourselves to become desensitized to them. Every single life lost is a family torn apart, a community left in shock, and a trauma that can never be fully healed. We cannot allow this to be who we are.
Warm Regards,
 Representative David Gomberg
House District 10
email: Rep.DavidGomberg@oregonlegislature.gov
phone: 503-986-1410
address: 900 Court St NE, H-480, Salem, OR, 97301
website: http://www.oregonlegislature.gov/gomberg
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