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May 19, 2021
Dear Neighbors and Friends,
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.
Today is a good-news kind of day. COVID cases are down, unusually so for a Tuesday, and the weekly report suggests that this is part of a trend extending over several weeks. Hospitalizations are down as well. Sadly, COVID deaths are up somewhat, and nearly half of them are people in their sixties.
As promised, you’ll find an extended report below on the just-released state revenue forecast. Despite the considerable economic pain that COVID has created for many families, overall as a state we are in a better place in terms of household income than we were before the pandemic. Both the economy and state revenues (and the investments the state will be able to make) are predicted to rise significantly over the next five to six years.
Please stay safe and let me know if you have any questions about information in today’s newsletter.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
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New COVID Cases: OHA reports 394 new COVID cases today. The cumulative number of cases in Oregon since the beginning of the pandemic is 196,787.
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Variant COVID Cases: The reported variant case numbers have just been updated, and they show increases in all categories. The case counts include 716 (up from 425) cases of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant, 78 cases (up from 29) of the P.1 (Brazilian) variant, and 56 (up from 35) cases of the B.1.351 (South African) variant. In addition, we are now seeing 237 (up from 196) cases of the B.1.427 variant, and 631 (up from 586) of the B.1.429 variant. OHA is now producing a Variant Tableau dashboard providing current variant case numbers for the state as a whole and for various parts of the state.
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Positive Test Results: OHA reported 557 positive tests today. The cumulative total of positive test results since the beginning of the pandemic is now 284,002.
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Total Tests: OHA reported an additional 14,905 tests today. Our cumulative total of reported tests is now 4,968,594
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Positivity Rate: The test positivity ratio for Oregon today is 4.9%.
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Hospitalization Information:
- Patients Currently with Confirmed COVID-19: 306 (36 fewer than yesterday)
- ICU Patients Confirmed w COVID-19: 76 (3 fewer than yesterday).
- Available ICU Beds: 133 (23 fewer than yesterday)
- Other Available Beds: 460 (19 fewer than yesterday).
- Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 45 (7 more than yesterday).
- Available Ventilators: 789 (16 more than yesterday).
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Deaths: I’m sorry to report 7 additional COVID deaths today. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 2,601.
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Vaccinations:
- As of the end of yesterday, here are the latest numbers:
- New Immunizations Reported Today: 24.280
- 17,217 were conducted and reported yesterday
- 7,063 were conducted earlier, but the reports were received yesterday (there can potentially be a three-day window for reporting)
- The 7-day running average is now 27,118 doses per day.
- Total First and Second Doses Administered So Far: 3,613,696
- 1,994,641 Pfizer doses
- 1,491,983 Moderna doses
- 125,434 Johnson & Johnson doses
- Total Oregonians vaccinated so far: 2,097,233
- 1,635,033 now fully vaccinated with two doses
- To date, 4,678,765 doses of vaccine have been delivered to sites across Oregon. (That’s an additional 107,260 doses, for a total of 328,650 for the week so far.)
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Additional Brief Updates:
- As the state moves closer to its vaccination targets and more workers will be able to reenter the workforce, the Oregon Employment Department will begin enforcing the requirement that those receiving unemployment benefits actively look for work. Here's more from the Oregonian.
- The Associated Press has a story about the many Americans who will not be returning to their old jobs even after it is safe to do so.
- As I’ve mentioned before, my legislative inbox is flooded with emails (mainly from other parts of the state), calling for a prohibition of any consideration of checking on vaccination status. Here's an opinion piece from VOX from someone who believes that so-called vaccination passports are the best way to “liberate” America.
- Several states that once had COVID death rates orders of magnitude higher than those we’ve experienced in Oregon are now reporting multiple days with zero COVID deaths.
Economic/Revenue Forecast Released: “A New Morning in America”
Late this afternoon we heard the latest economic and revenue forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. This is the report that allows the Legislature to move forward with settling on the final budget allocations for the 2021-23 biennium.
And the news was extremely positive. The state economists, who also rely on well-respected national economic consultants, believe that with the current and impending rebound from the COVID pandemic, we’re looking at the fastest economic growth since the 1984 rebound of Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America.” And that will lead to increased state tax revenues—up to a point. It will also lead to a large share of those revenues going back to taxpayers as a result of our “kicker” process.
Here are linksto the PowerPoint presentation and the various reports referenced in their presentation. If you click on the arrow, you can also watch the presentation, which was informative and provocative as usual.
Here are some of the highlights:
- Unprecedented federal aid in the form of direct payments to households, enhanced unemployment benefits, and payments to cities and states that have resulted in enhanced employment have led to income levels that are actually higher than they were prior to the pandemic.
- As a result of constraints on spending, current savings levels across the U.S. are at a remarkable $2.3 TRILLION. That will be spent over the coming years, buttressing further economic growth.
- There is an incredible pent-up demand for travel, recreation, and other forms of spending that have been suppressed during the pandemic.
- As vaccinations increase, Oregon’s labor market will return to full health during the coming biennium.
- The potential constraints are around access to labor and the potential effects of inflation—which most economists currently believe will be manageable.
- Needless to say, the same disparities that existed before the pandemic have existed during the pandemic, and (absent effective government action) will likely continue after the pandemic.
- Interestingly, we haven’t seen gender disparities during the pandemic recession so much as maternal/non-maternal disparities—that is, mothers have been hit especially hard (vis-à-vis fathers and women without children) because of their inordinate societal role as caregivers.
- Unlike what we traditionally see in recessions, and what was earlier assumed would occur with this one, the economists now believe that there will be no permanent damage from this recession. (Remember, we’re talking on the MACROeconomic level here; there have been and will be substantial damage in individual instances.)
- We’re seeing an increase of 11%-15% in tax withholdings—suggesting a large increase in revenue coming in.
- It’s hard to get a clear assessment of ultimate, actual tax payments because of the delay in the tax filing deadline this year.
- Corporate payments are at record-setting levels.
- Video poker and other lottery revenues are now above pre-pandemic predictions.
- Record-level stock market earnings will result in big increases in capital gains payments (and concerns about potential federal tax increases on the wealthy may push Oregon investors to take those capital gains payments earlier).
- Our unique kicker system (which requires the state to return any and all revenues that come in higher than the economists predicted once the “kicker” kicks—i.e., when revenues come in more than 2% above prediction) creates an enormous challenge for the economists. They like to be cautious in their predictions, but if they predict low, the kicker will definitely kick. If they predict high—we may build the budget on anticipated revenues that don’t come in, and then we have to slash budgets. It’s generally, a no-win proposition for them.
- As it is, it appears that kicker payments for this current biennium (based on their forecast from 2 years ago) could be as high as $1.4 Billion. That will result in a median kicker payment of $312 per household (for households in the $35K-$45k range). For those in the bottom 20% range (households earning below $12,500), the kicker payment will be $25. For Oregon households in the top 1% (those with average incomes more than $441,700), their average unanticipated refund will be $12,856. (If you believe that the kicker system—if it is to continue—should have refunds that are closer to being equal in distributing the unanticipated revenues, then you and I are in agreement.
- The economists are predicting solid increases to previous growth estimates over the coming biennia:
- $1.2 billion higher than earlier predictions in 2021-23.
- $1.3 billion in 2023-25
- $1.6 billion in 2025-27
- The economists did issue a plea that we put some of those anticipated increases into savings in case their projections turn out to be too high because of unanticipated shifts in the economy.
- We do already have record levels of reserves, not to mention expected increases in federal investments.
- They agree with the Governor’s call to put more money into community colleges and workforce development to build for the future.
Please let me know if you have any questions about the report. I’ll keep you informed about decisions being considered for the 2021-23 biennial budget. As you can imagine, things are about to heat up on that front, and will continue so for the next five weeks.
Weekly COVID Data And Outbreak Reports Released: The Downturn in COVID Cases Continues
The Oregon Health Authority’s COVID-19 Weekly Report, released today, shows decreases in daily cases but slight increases in hospitalizations and deaths from the previous week.
- OHA reported 4,108 new daily cases of COVID-19 during the week of Monday, May 10, through Sunday, May 16. That represents a 16% decrease from the previous week, the third consecutive week of declining cases.
- New COVID-19 related hospitalizations rose to 265, up from 245 last week.
- Reported COVID-19 related deaths rose to 57, up from 31 last week — the highest weekly death toll in 10 weeks. As our daily reports have made clear, though, this increase is largely due to previously-unreported deaths that actually occurred in earlier months.
- There were 103,155 tests for COVID-19 for the week of May 9 through May 15 — a 7% decrease from last week.
- Partly as a result, the percentage of positive tests rose from 6.1% to 6.4%.
Today’s COVID-19 Weekly Outbreak Report shows 40 active COVID-19 outbreaks in senior living communities and congregate living settings. This is a slight reduction from previous weeks and much, much lower than was the case in the year.
12/9/20 191 facilities
1/13/21 202 facilities
2/10/21 116 facilities
3/10/21 44 facilities
4/14/21 24 facilities
4/21/21 24 facilities
4/28/21 34 facilities
5/5/21 42 facilities
5/12/21 42 facilities
5/19/21 40 facilities
The Outbreak Report also includes the latest data on COVID in workplaces, childcare centers, and public and private K-12 schools.
Renters: Emergency Rental Program Now Open
If you need help paying your rent, the new Oregon Rental Assistance Program is now open for business.
Where Are Today’s New Cases?
If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive cases reported today, the overall number of new cases reported is 394. Two-thirds are from outside the Portland Tri-County area. Here is today’s breakdown by county:
Baker (1)
Benton (6)
Clackamas (31)
Clatsop (5)
Columbia (4)
Coos (1)
Crook (11)
Curry (6)
Deschutes (36)
Douglas (8)
Grant (1)
Harney (3)
Hood River (1)
Jackson (31)
Jefferson (8)
Josephine (11)
Klamath (9)
Lake (1)
Lane (22)
Lincoln (1)
Linn (24)
Malheur (4)
Marion (42)
Morrow (1)
Multnomah (57)
Multnomah (68)
Polk (8)
Tillamook (2)
Umatilla (10)
Union (1)
Wasco (4)
Washington (32)
Yamhill (10)
And the Deaths:
Oregon’s 2,595th COVID-19 death is an 82-year-old man from Marion County who tested positive on May 12 and died on May 17 at Salem Hospital.
Oregon’s 2,596th COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old woman from Deschutes County who tested positive on April 24 and died on May 10 at St. Charles Medical Center Bend.
Oregon’s 2,597th COVID-19 death is a 93-year-old woman from Linn county who tested positive on May 6 and died on May 18.
Oregon’s 2,598th COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old man from Umatilla County who tested positive on March 26 and died on April 3 at Trios Health Southridge Hospital in Kennewick, WA.
Oregon’s 2,599th COVID-19 death is a 62-year-old man from Multnomah County who tested positive on May 7 and died on May 16 at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.
Oregon’s 2,600th COVID-19 death is a 68-year-old man from Multnomah County who tested positive on May 13 and died on May 18 at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.
Oregon’s 2,601st COVID-19 death is a 67-year-old man from Deschutes County who tested positive on May 8 and died on May 18 at his residence.
 
Want to See Past Newsletters?
If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there. Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-281-0608
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
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