May 14th COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

May 14, 2021

Dear Neighbors and Friends,

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today’s COVID report suggests that we are still at the somewhat lower plateau of cases compared to where we were a couple of weeks ago.  The OHA epidemiological forecast that just came in today predicts that we can expect to move down to a lower plateau by the end of the month, as our transmission rate goes back down and vaccinations continue.

Some cautious optimism.

In the links to news articles, you’ll see several takes on the new CDC masking policy, both national and local perspectives.  We’re still waiting for comprehensive guidelines from the OHA.

In the Senate today we spent nearly 3 ½ hours listening to the reading of one (75-page) bill (followed by about 90 seconds of debate).  It was actually a good time to catch up on work, planning, and conversations.  Not surprisingly—as is probably happening everywhere—many of those conversations were speculations on how quickly we might be able to change our masking rules while on the floor.

Please stay safe and let me know if you have any questions about information in today’s newsletter.

 

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • New COVID Cases: OHA reports 713 new COVID cases today.  The cumulative number of cases in Oregon since the beginning of the pandemic is 194,542.
  • Variant COVID Cases: The reported variant case numbers were updated earlier this week. The case counts include 425 (up from 311) cases of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant, 29 cases (up from 18) of the P.1 (Brazilian) variant, and 35 (up from 28) cases of the B.1.351 (South African) variant.  In addition, we are now seeing 196 (up from 177) cases of the B.1.427 variant, and 586 (up from 566) of the B.1.429 variant.  OHA is now producing a Variant Tableau dashboard providing current variant case numbers for the state as a whole and for various parts of the state.
  • Positive Test Results: OHA reported 991 positive tests today. The cumulative total of positive test results since the beginning of the pandemic is now 279,579.
  • Total Tests: OHA reported an additional 16,516 tests today. Our cumulative total of reported tests is now 4,901,179.
  • Positivity Rate: The test positivity ratio for Oregon today is 6.0%.
  • Hospitalization Information:
    • Patients Currently with Confirmed COVID-19: 337 (14 more than yesterday)
    • ICU Patients Confirmed w COVID-19: 77 (11 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available ICU Beds: 160 (2 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 495 (23 more than yesterday).
    • Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 37 (3 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 778 (6 fewer than yesterday).
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 10 additional COVID deaths today.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 2,582.
  • Vaccinations:
    • As of the end of yesterday, here are the latest numbers:
      • New Immunizations Reported Today: 37,164
        • 24,318 were conducted and reported yesterday
        • 12,846 were conducted earlier, but the reports were received yesterday (there can potentially be a three-day window for reporting)
        • The 7-day running average is now 32,278 doses per day.
  • Total First and Second Doses Administered So Far: 3,473,764
    • 1,901,442 Pfizer doses
    • 1,452,652 Moderna doses
    • 118,127 Johnson & Johnson doses
  • Total Oregonians vaccinated so far: 2,033,360
    • 1,552,152 now fully vaccinated with two doses
  • To date, 4,350,115 doses of vaccine have been delivered to sites across Oregon. (That’s an additional 19,670 doses, for a total of 315,131 so far for the week.)
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Additional COVID cases have been reported as part of the recent  big outbreak at a church in Salem.
    • The New York Times has done an analysis of racial disparities in COVID vaccinations across the country. The result?  Though still significant, disparities are shrinking.
    • Yesterday’s announcement by the CDC that fully vaccinated individuals can go without masks in many settings caught many of us by surprise. Who was surprised most? Epidemiologists.
    • Is it now reasonable to discuss the end of the pandemic? According to this article in the Washington Post, yes, but with caveats.
    • Many national retailers will still require face coverings. despite the recent CDC guidance.
    • The Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) have just reported a jump in COVID cases among youths. They’re scheduling vaccination clinics in response.  Here's the story from the Associated Press.
    • Here’s a story Here's a story from the Oregonian’s Brad Schmidt about the conundrum that stores may find themselves in soon—do they continue to require everyone to wear a face covering, or do they allow those who voluntarily show proof of vaccination to go mask-free?  The latter was  recommended by State Epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger today, but how realistic is it in our current highly-politicized environment?
    • A poll released today by the Washington Post suggests that many of the unvaccinated will choose to remove their masks, despite the CDC guidance allowing only those who’ve been fully vaccinated to do so.
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Latest Epidemiological Forecast Released:  Reductions At Last

OHA has released its latest epidemiological forecast with support from the Institute for Disease Modeling.  It reflects information collected up to May 12. To account for delays in reporting, diagnosed cases with a specimen collection date after May 4 were not used; they used the same cutoff date for hospital admissions and deaths. In the epidemiological model, cases tested on May 4 reflect exposures that occurred around April 28

The Re (effective reproduction rate)--the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates — was estimated at 0.86 (down significantly from 1.24) through April 28.  This is the first reduction we’ve seen in the last month.  If it persists, our case counts will continue to go down.

This is much better than was predicted in the previous analysis.

The report finds that the 7-day rolling average of diagnosed cases had been increasing since mid-March but began to decline in late April. New hospitalizations increased between mid-March and early April but has been declining since late April.

As we’ve been seeing in our daily reports, the number of deaths had been long-declining but flattened out in April and has recently started to increase.

Why are we (and many other states) experiencing this decrease in transmission rate right now?  In one word, vaccinations.  If it weren’t for the increase in vaccinations our cases would be increasing right now.  With a Re of 0.86, we can expect continuing reductions.

The revised forecast again gives us two possible scenarios for the immediate future.

Scenario 1:  Transmission Continues As-Is

If the transmission rate as estimated for April 28 (Re 0.86) we would see a continued decline in diagnosed cases:

  • For the two-week period between May 19 and June 1, the projected number of new diagnosed cases would decline to 140 per 100,000 people. This rate translates to a daily average of 420 cases (as opposed to the current 700).
  • New hospitalizations would decrease to 17 per day by June 1.

Scenario 2: Transmission Increases by 20%

This scenario is intended to illustrate what might happen over the next month if the transmission rate were to increase due to more infectious variants and/or if protective behaviors were to decline among those not vaccinated as local restrictions are relaxed:

  • New diagnosed cases would decline more gradually, falling to 195 per 100,000 people for the two-week period between May 19 and June 1; this rate translates to a daily average of 590 cases.
  • New hospitalizations would decrease to 26 per day by June 1.

Here is the overall positive conclusion from the epidemiologists:

The people of Oregon have once again successfully stopped the rise in COVID-19 cases. Consistent with both of our scenario projections, forecasts compiled by the CDC suggest that COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Oregon will continue to decrease in the month ahead.  Our projections assume that people will continue to get vaccinated at recent levels. With over 2 million Oregonians having received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, we are on track to meeting Oregon’s goal to vaccinate 70% of those ages 16 and older by mid to late-June and removing the County Risk Level Framework Restrictions. That is only four to six weeks from now. Until then, Oregonians need to continue doing their part to stop COVID-19 hospitalizations – wearing a mask and physically distance indoors, following local prevention policies, and of course, getting vaccinated.

new rules

 

Johnson & Johnson Allocations Put On Hold

We learned from the OHA today that J&J vaccine allocations being provided to state, local and territorial jurisdictions have been put on hold pending the U.S. Food and Drug Administration certification of doses produced at the Baltimore Emergent plant.

They did say that all the doses of the J&J  vaccine that were already allocated are safe and have been cleared for use. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are arriving as scheduled—we’ve received more than 300,000 doses already this week.

 

In Case You Missed the Facebook Live On Variants

On Wednesday, OHA Senior Health Advisor Melissa Sutton and Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) assistant professor of medicine (infectious disease) Bill Messer answered questions on the variants on a Facebook Live. You can view the video in Spanish or English.

The current data suggests the authorized COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. offer protection against severe illness and death caused by all variants of COVID-19.

If you missed the Facebook Live, here are the questions that came in, and the time stamps for each:

Time stamps for the questions are below:

9:26 – Are the vaccinated causing the variants? Are they asymptomatic spreaders

10:21 – What’s the difference between variants of concern and variants of interest?

11:40 – If the vaccines work against the variants, why are we not seeing a decrease in cases?

13:23 – How many variants are circulating in Oregon, and do we know if the vaccine covers the variants?

14:55 – How can you know that the increase in cases is due to variants?

15:45 – Does B.1.1.7 spread more easily outdoors, or is it still transmitted more easily indoors?

16:55 – How are these COVID-19 variants any different than the variants of the flu each year?

18:59 – Are variants detected by a standard COVID-19 test?

19:46 – Are you taking random samples of positive tests for sequencing, or are you limiting sequencing to breakthrough cases?

21:49 – If the vaccine doesn’t stop the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus, it just reduces the symptoms of COVID-19, how are the people doing symptoms-wise with these new variants?

23:33 – Wouldn’t the OHA Variants Dashboard be more useful if variants were expressed as percentages of total sequenced samples at all Oregon sequencing labs, plus the variations of these percentages with time, say per week or month?

24:40 – How long will the vaccine be effective against the variants?

 

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive cases reported today, the overall number of new cases reported is 713.  Here is today’s breakdown by county:

Baker (4)

Benton (6)

Clackamas (100)

Clatsop (6)

Columbia (5)

Coos (5)

Crook (11)

Deschutes (68)

Douglas (10)

Grant (13)

Harney (2)

Hood River (4)

Jackson (39)

Jefferson (8)

Josephine (10)

Klamath (35)

Lake (3)

Lane (46)

Lincoln (4)

Linn (29)

Malheur (5)

Marion (60)

Morrow (3)

Multnomah (120)

Polk (14)

Tillamook (3)

Umatilla (17)

Union (1)

Wasco (2)

Washington (70)

Yamhill (10)

 

And the Deaths:

Note from OHA: Updated information is known about Oregon’s 2,555th death. She is a 67-year-old woman from Benton County. She was originally reported as a Linn County resident.

Oregon’s 2,573rd COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old man from Columbia County who tested positive on April 12 and died on May 10 at Portland VA Medical Center.

Oregon’s 2,574th COVID-19 death is a 68-year-old man from Columbia County who tested positive on April 3 and died on April 18 at PeaceHealth Southwest Medical Center in Vancouver, WA.

Oregon’s 2,575th COVID-19 death is an 89-year-old man from Grant County who tested positive on May 6 and died on May 12 at his residence.

Oregon’s 2,576th COVID-19 death is a 104-year-old woman from Coos County who tested positive on May 5 and died on May 9 at her residence.

Oregon’s 2,577th COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old man from Lane County who tested positive on April 17 and died on May 3 at his residence.

Oregon’s 2,578th COVID-19 death is a 54-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive on May 13 and died on May 13 at Salem Hospital.

Oregon’s 2,579th COVID-19 death is a 63-year-old woman from Multnomah County who tested positive on April 14 and died on April 24 at Spring Valley Hospital Medical Center in Las Vegas, NV.

Oregon’s 2,580th COVID-19 death is a 58-year-old woman from Multnomah County who tested positive on April 10 and died on May 9 at Providence Portland Medical Center.

Oregon’s 2,581st COVID-19 death is a 73-year-old man from Polk County who tested positive on April 29 and died on May 12 at Salem Hospital.

Oregon’s 2,582nd COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old man from Curry County who tested positive on May 4 and died on May 10 at Bay Area Hospital.

 

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-281-0608
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301