November 18th COVID-19 Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 11/18/2020 10:29 PM PST
Michael Dembrow

November 18, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

As the new statewide freeze goes into effect today, today’s reported case numbers and hospitalizations unfortunately remind us why action is needed: case counts are again over 1,000, new COVID hospitalizations have doubled, and a record number of Oregonians remain in the hospital for COVID.  The state’s positivity rate has never been higher, and today we learned of the loss of an additional ten Oregonians.  National case counts, deaths, and hospitalizations are also at record levels.

These impacts are now being felt all over the state.

Today’s newsletter also includes a summary of today’s quarterly Legislative Revenue Forecast.  It paints a fairly optimistic picture for Oregon.  But much will depend on the trajectory of the virus between now and the eventual vaccine that is coming next year.

We saw last spring that temporary COVID restrictions can lead to a fairly rapid turnaround in case counts.  Without a doubt, these restrictions can create short-term economic hardship. But as you’ll see in the report on today’s Revenue Forecast, by abating the spread of the virus during the late spring and summer, those actions actually allowed our economy to rebound to a relatively large extent.  

Please let me know if you have any questions about today’s newsletter. 

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 1,057 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID-19. The cumulative total for those testing positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 56,743.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported COVID test results has increased by 6,986. The cumulative total of tests since the beginning of the pandemic is now 973,924.
  • Ratio: The percentage of total tests that have been reported positive is 15.1%.  The national ratio today is 10.6%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to have to report 10 additional COVID deaths today. You can read about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 788.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reports a new record 83 new COVID hospitalizations today. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID is now 3,888.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  OHA reports 42 new cases presumed positive today. The cumulative total of those reported as presumed positives is 2,926.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 484 (39 more than yesterday). Of those, 406 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 127 (9 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 557 (74 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 103 (1 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 42 (2 more than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 739 (3 fewer than yesterday).
  • Dashboard:
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Last spring the federal government provided funding for the states to pay claimants for the first week, which previously had not been funded. Reprogramming our outdated computer system has been a real challenge for the Employment Department, but at last they appear to have worked out the wrinkles and are paying the benefits.  They have just reported that the first-week payments should begin to be paid retroactively by Thanksgiving.  You can read more about it here.  Eligible claimants who filed their initial unemployment claim between March 29 and July 25 will receive a $600 FPUC payment in addition to their regular UI payment. Eligible claimants who filed their initial claim between July 26 and Sept. 5 will receive a $300 LWA payment in addition.
    • OHA released the latest COVID-19 weekly report late today. I’ll provide details in tomorrow’s newsletter, but for now I can say that it again shows the highest levels of negative impacts that we’ve seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

Revenue Forecast Remains Stable

The state economists at the Office of Economic Analysis presented the December revenue forecast this morning at a joint meeting of the Senate and House Revenue Committees.  You may remember that the September forecast was surprisingly positive, given the impacts of the pandemic on business and employment activity in the state.  We learned today that their projections back in September have continued to hold.  In fact, business activity and resulting tax revenues have continued to come in at a higher than expected level. 

The economists are projecting a 5% increase in our state revenues during the next biennium.  That’s actually not enough to fund everything we’re currently funding, so the Legislature will need to make cuts during the upcoming session, or be obliged to dip into reserves, or both.  But relatively speaking, this is good news.

Having said that, there are a number of caveats to this projection.  First, it assumes that Congress will pass another stimulus package early in 2021, albeit at a lower level than the CARES Act from last spring.  Second, it does not take into account the impact of the current “freeze” required by the big surge in COVID cases that we’re experiencing.  However, they assume that the impact of the freeze will be relatively modest, particularly if it results in a decline in the disease over the next few weeks.

Here is the Executive Summary of their report.  And here are the details from the Legislative Revenue Office.

And here are some interesting details from the forecast:

  • Our economic future continues to depend on the virus. If COVID continues to spread during the cold, wet winter months, economic activity will decline.
  • Assuming that we have a vaccine and more effective treatment by next fall, the recovery from this recession will be more rapid than is typical. We should be back to full economic health by 2023.
  • The fact that higher-income families have been relatively spared from the economic hardships of the pandemic has kept tax collections relatively intact.
  • All the major sources of tax revenue have bounced back already, but the strongest recovery has come from corporate taxes, investment income (fueled by a return to near-record stock market levels), and lottery sales.
  • Lottery revenues will be hit hard by the new freeze as a result of the closure of bars and restaurants, where video poker machines are located.
  • Incredibly, as a result of the rebounds, it’s possible that the kicker will kick next year.
  • Savings are at record levels (due in part to people having less access to travel, dining, and other forms of spending), but only on average—big disparities exist between those who are comfortable and those who are struggling.
  • Not all businesses and industries will rebound with the recovery. The pandemic has caused sectors that were already vulnerable to automation, outsourcing, and other forms of competition to succumb more quickly.
  • Much uncertainty remains. For example, if a stimulus package does not emerge, we can expect the next forecast to be much more pessimistic.
  • Thanks to self-imposed discipline over the last decade, our reserves remain solid. We are in a much better position to weather the downturn than we have ever been during prior recessions. 

Please let me know if you have any questions about the forecast.

Wednesday Wildfire Recovery/Response Update

No change reported by ODF today. They are still just reporting on the Riverside Fire in Clackamas County. Again, you can follow the remaining firefighting effort at the State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

The Office of Emergency Management has not released an update on wildfire recovery.  However, for the very latest numbers, OEM is now maintaining a real-time Wildfire and Recovery Tracker that will give you up-to-the-moment statistics on a variety of metrics related to recovery efforts. 

Also, EPA has an Oregon Fires Recovery Website with a variety of information about the cleanup effort, including information about how residents can get ash and debris removed from their properties at no cost.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases for today is 1,099.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (9)

Benton (13)

Clackamas (82)

Clatsop (4)

Columbia (6)

Coos (5)

Crook (6)

Curry (3)

Deschutes (40)

Douglas (33)

Gilliam (2)

Harney (3)

Hood River (11)

Jackson (108)

Jefferson (15)

Josephine (20)

Lake (8)

Lane (115)

Lincoln (5)

Linn (30)

Malheur (33)

Marion (84)

Morrow (2)

Multnomah (210)

Polk (9)

Tillamook (4)

Umatilla (29)

Union (3)

Wasco (4)

Washington (171)

Yamhill (26)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 779th COVID-19 death is a 65-year-old woman in Yamhill County who tested positive on Nov. 12 and died on Nov. 14, at Willamette Valley Medical Center.

Oregon’s 780th COVID0-19 death is a 75-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Nov. 11 and died on Nov. 15, at Legacy Mount Hood Medical Center.

Oregon’s 781st COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old man who tested positive on Oct. 16 and died on Nov. 8, at OHSU.

Oregon’s 782nd COVID-19 death is an 86-year-old man in Douglas County who tested positive on Nov. 10 and died on Nov. 17.

Oregon’s 783rd COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 20 and died on Nov. 15.

Oregon’s 784th COVID-19 death is a 77-year-old man in Crook County who tested positive on Nov. 3 and died on Nov. 17.

Oregon’s 785th COVID-19 death is an 85-year-old woman in Washington County who tested positive on Nov. 9 and died on Nov. 17.

Oregon’s 786th COVID-19 death is an 84-year-old woman in Jackson County who tested positive on Oct. 30 and died on Nov. 12, in her residence.

Oregon’s 787th COVID-19 death is an 86-year-old man in Washington County who tested positive on Nov. 2 and died on Nov. 15, at Tuality Community Hospital.

Oregon’s 788th COVID-19 death is a 76-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Oct. 22 and died on Nov.17, at McKenzie Willamette Medical Center.

Additional Graphs:

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**You can find a breakdown of regional availability here.

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301