November 16th COVID-19 Update

November 16, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today’s OHA report shows that COVID cases have been declining over the last couple of days from the record levels of the end of last week.  That may or may not be a positive trend.  Our numbers are still in the historically high range, and our statewide positivity rate remains well into the 10% danger range.  Obviously, we’re not alone.

The weekend also brought us to new levels of COVID hospitalizations, including COVID patients requiring ICU and ventilation.  Fortunately, the number of new COVID deaths has not risen dramatically so far.

This newsletter also contains a summary of the latest epidemiological projections from the Institute for Disease Modeling. Unfortunately, their “as is” projection is now in the realm of what was once considered the “pessimistic” projection.

On the positive front, we heard good news today from Modena, another company working on a COVID vaccine.  They join Pfizer in having unexpectedly positive results on their vaccine trial.  It may be that we will have functioning vaccines available to a limited number of priority workers by the end of the year and then available to the rest of us over the next few months.

An article that appeared in The Atlantic over the weekend related to the vaccine really resonated with me.  The author, a professor at the University of North Carolina, argues that we may be approaching a point where the “end” is in sight.  Paradoxically, this could be the most dangerous time for us. If we look at previous pandemics, such as the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, the disease is now entering its most dangerous phase as we approach winter.  This is precisely the time for a little more patience and perseverance.  If we can redouble our efforts during this final period of vulnerability, we can get through this. 

Please let me know if you have any questions about today’s newsletter. 

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

• Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 2,602 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID-19 since Friday, an average of 867 per day. The cumulative total for those testing positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 54,795.
• Total Tests: The number of reported COVID test results has increased by 19,728 since Friday, an average of 6,576 per day. The cumulative total of tests since the beginning of the pandemic is now 960,131.
• Ratio: The percentage of total tests that have been reported positive over the last three days is 13.2%.  The national ratio today is 10.5%.
• Deaths: I’m sorry to have to report 4 additional COVID deaths today. You can read about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 765.
• Hospitalized: OHA reports 126 new COVID hospitalizations since Friday, an average of 42 per day. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID is now 3,754.
• Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  The cumulative total of those reported as presumed positives is 2,851.
• Other Hospital Information:
  • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 413 (57 more than Friday). Of those, 347 have already received a positive test back.
  • Available ICU Beds: 163 (32 more than Friday)
  • Other Available Beds: 699 (88 more than Friday).
  • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 93 (23 more than Friday).
  • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 40 (10 more than Friday).
  • Available Ventilators: 752 (12 more than Friday).
• Dashboard:
  • Oregon (OHA)
  • Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, & Yamhill Counties
• Today’s National Numbers:
  • Total Tests: 168,814,292 (up 1,479,298 from yesterday).
  • Total Cases: 11,047,064 (up 155,854 from yesterday.)
  • Deaths: 238,217 (up 681 from yesterday).
  • These national numbers come from the COVID Tracking Project. You can follow their updated numbers for each state and the nation as a whole here.

• Additional Brief Updates:
  • The Legislature’s Office of Economic Analysis will be presenting the next revenue forecast to a joint meeting of the House and Senate revenue committees this Wednesday at 9 am. Here’s the agenda and viewing link.  There will also be a presentation on Oregon’s connection to the business tax cuts in the Federal CARES Act.
  • OHA has issued the following advice to college students who may be heading home for the holidays (and in most cases for the rest of the semester).
  • And here’s an advisory from the University of Oregon to its students.
  • This week’s edition of the Oregonian’s Beat Check podcast features Oregonian reporter Brad Schmidt, who has been focusing on COVID and COVID response.  It’s a really good summary of where we’ve been and where we are.
  • A reader told me about a great newsletter called ParentData by Brown economist Emily Oster (author of Cribsheet). The latest entry provides a very sensible way of thinking about the decision-points around whether schools should reopen in person or not.  I recommend it. (Thanks, Ann from Eugene.)
  • Oregonian reporters have produced this article about the new OSHA COVID requirements for employers. It also reports on the new requirements related to the temporary freeze.
  • Forbes has a rundown of all the federal COVID relief programs that expire at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t renew them or replace them.

Disease Model Update: A Troubling Roadmap

OHA has released the latest COVID Model Update from the Institute for Disease Modeling.   It’s based on data through November 6.

It reflects the big increases that we’ve been experiencing over the last few weeks.  Their prognosis has become much more cautious in its assumptions (now more cautious than other modelers) and much less optimistic overall.

Based on the data seen up to November 6, the modelers believe that the “Re” (Effective Reproduction Number, the number of secondary cases generated by a single case) in Oregon has jumped from 1.0 to 1.47.  If the Re level continues, we will continue to see big increases in cases here in Oregon.

The projection update has been very much simplified.  It now provides us with only two possible scenarios looking forward, for the next month: “Transmission Continues As-Is” and “Transmission Returns to Mid-October Level.”  It does not give us the detail of earlier reports regarding hospitalizations and the projected number of undiagnosed cases.

Scenario 1:  Transmission Continues As Is:

If we continue as we are now (with an Re of 1.47), in a month we would continue to see an exponential growth in new diagnosed cases—taking us to a statewide 500 per 100K Oregonians.  The number of newly diagnosed cases will be approximately 1,500 per day.

Scenario 2: Returns to Mid-October Level:

This scenario assumes that we are able to make the necessary behavior changes that will get us back to where we were in Mid-October, with an Re of 0.91. If we can do that, the model predicts that new case numbers will still be at historically high levels but would start to decrease.

In the words of the modelers, These results highlight how the level of COVID activity depends strongly on the collective success of mitigation efforts in the coming months.

Monday Wildfire Recovery/Response Update

I’m pleased to report that ODF has removed all the fires other than the Riverside Fire in Clackamas County from its active watch list.  Again, you can follow the remaining firefighting effort at the State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

The Office of Emergency Management is no longer giving us regular reports on wildfire recovery.  However, for the very latest numbers, OEM is now maintaining a real-time Wildfire and Recovery Tracker that will give you up-to-the-moment statistics on a variety of metrics related to recovery efforts. 

Also, EPA has an Oregon Fires Recovery Website with a variety of information about the cleanup effort, including information about how residents can get ash and debris removed from their properties at no cost.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases for today is 781. More than half of the new cases are from the Portland Metro Area today, but we’re again seeing big counts in Marion County. Union County is also showing higher counts than usual for the second day in a row, so there is probably some sort of outbreak happening there.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (8)

Benton (6)

Clackamas (71)

Columbia (5)

Coos (4)

Crook (1)

Deschutes (35)

Douglas (9)

Hood River (3)

Jackson (59)

Jefferson (1)

Josephine (2)

Klamath (3)

Lake (2)

Lane (41)

Linn (11)

Malheur (5)

Marion (103)

Multnomah (231)

Polk (16)

Tillamook (2)

Umatilla (10)

Union (23)

Wasco (1)

Washington (118)

Yamhill (11)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 762nd COVID-19 death is a 41-year-old man in Washington County, who became symptomatic on Nov. 8 after contact with a confirmed case, and died on Nov. 15 in his residence.

Oregon’s 763rd COVID-19 death is a 78-year-old man in Washington County who tested positive on Nov. 8 and died on Nov. 14. Place of death is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 764th COVID-19 death is a 60-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on Nov. 2 and died on Nov. 15 at Legacy Meridian Park Medical Center.

Oregon’s 765th COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Nov. 5 and died on Nov. 8 at Adventist Medical Center.

Additional Graphs:

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

• Multnomah County has a status report on reopening.
• You can view the reopening status of all 36 counties here.
• Here is the OHA’s coronavirus page, with links to a number of resources. 
• Oregon's Office of Emergency Management now has a website for information about COVID-19.
• You can sign up here for regular coronavirus updates from OHA.
• Multnomah County has an excellent website with lots of really important advice and guidance.
• Here’s one from the Governor’s Office.
• The Employment Department has put together a webpage with Q&A’s on a number of employment issues related to COVID-19 (e.g., eligibility for Unemployment Insurance benefits).
• The Oregon Education Department has a new site for COVID-19 updates.
• The Department of Corrections has a COVID tracking website.

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301