October 24th COVID-19 Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 10/24/2020 08:52 PM PDT
Michael Dembrow

October 24, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

Today’s report on COVID shows a continuation of the current high plateau of new cases. This is partly due to a higher amount of testing, leading the state’s overall positivity rate to go down a little today. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however, and, sadly, OHA has reported the death of four additional Oregonians from COVID.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It allows us to see the trends in the individual counties, as well as the trends for the state as a whole.  We can see that for the state as a whole, the recent increases in new cases and positivity rates are continuing, but more gradually than was the case a couple of weeks ago.

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 399 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 41,739.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 8,028. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday.  The cumulative total is now 821,142.
  • Ratio: The percentage of total tests that are positive (or presumed positive) today is 5.0%.  The national ratio today is 6.8%.
  • Deaths: I regret to have to report 4 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 653.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 3,034.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 197 (3 more than yesterday). Of those, 148 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 161 (same as yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 617 (45 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 53 (2 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 21 (same as yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 710 (75 fewer than yesterday).
  • Dashboard:
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • It’s good to see the case numbers in both Lane County (home of the University of Oregon) and Benton County (home of Oregon State University) starting to go down. The University of Oregon has just sent legislators an update on their COVID numbers and what they’re doing to further contain the disease.  They report that the number of new cases has declined by more than half over the last week and that most of the new student cases are again among those living off campus. The university is now requiring anyone coming onto campus to wear a face covering either indoors or outdoors at all times (even when they are able to maintain six feet of distance from others).  For more details, here’s the update.
    • AARP is partnering with Attorney-General Ellen Rosenblum and others to produce a free webinar to help older Oregonians, particularly those affected by wildfire, protect themselves from fraud and let them know ways in which state agencies can provide them with free help. The hour-long webinar will be on November 6 at 11:30.  Here’s more information and a sign-up page.
    • Finally, I need to make two corrections to yesterday’s newsletter. Yesterday’s newsletter said that Clackamas County was removed from the County Watch List.  Well, that was one of those auto-correct errors that wasn’t caught.  Should have been Clatsop County. (Sorry, Clackamas County neighbors—you were never on the Watch List, so you didn’t need to come off it.)  Second, yesterday’s reported number of new presumed positive COVID cases should have been 30, not 38.

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARD that the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of October 23: 

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This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred months ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. In fact, there are only a handful of moves up or down by one or two spots.

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.  

Here’s a table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties right now. The most striking changes tend to come from low-population frontier counties, where a few new cases can make a real difference.  We saw that happen last week with Wheeler County, which had its first and only case last week (it’s now back at the bottom of all counties).  We see it this week with Harney County, which had 8 new cases last week; as a result, it soars from one of the lowest places to first place in the chart below. It remains in #32 in the chart above, and that’s likely where it will remain in the future.

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Looking at the tables below, showing the new cases, new tests, positivity rates, and deaths in the different counties, we can see what’s been going on over the last week. Cases and positivity rates are again on the rise, with another record for new cases set yesterday.  However, the higher number of positive results is to some extent a function of more testing.  You’ll see that the positivity rate, while slightly higher this week, is in line with where it’s been for much of the last month.

In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

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If you’re interested in seeing an even more granular picture of what’s happening on the ground, cumulatively and over the last week, The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.

Saturday Wildfire Recovery/Response Update

No change in today’s reported fire containment around the state. 

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Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

We don’t get a daily update on the recovery effort from OEM today, but we did receive their weekly update for legislators late yesterday. It provides a little more detail on the daily information I included in yesterday’s newsletter.  Again, here are the most recent recovery statistics for Oregon:

  • The number of fatalities (9) and missing persons (1) remains the same.
  • The number of residences reported destroyed is 4,009. More than 1,400 structures other than residences have also been destroyed.
  • According to the Red Cross, 1,841 Oregonians remain in emergency housing. Of those, 103 are living in RVs and tents, and 1,738 are in hotels/motels and other short-term settings.  There are no evacuees living in indoor congregate shelters any longer.
  • The number of Oregonians who have registered with FEMA for individual assistance has continued to increase and is currently at 22,623. FEMA has already approved for $20.8 million in assistance grants.
  • Still, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases for today is 399.  Nearly half of all new cases are from the Portland Tri-County area.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (3)

Clackamas (25)

Clatsop (4)

Columbia (3)

Crook (3)

Deschutes (13)

Douglas (3)

Harney (2)

Jackson (33)

Jefferson (4)

Josephine (1)

Klamath (3)

Lane (32)

Lincoln (4)

Linn (10)

Malheur (12)

Marion (48)

Multnomah (99)

Polk (5)

Umatilla (17)

Wallowa (2)

Washington (71)

Yamhill (2)

And the Deaths:

Oregon’s 650th COVID-19 death is a 73-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Oct. and died on Oct. 17, at Grand Strand Medical Center in South Carolina.

Oregon’s 651st COVID-19 death is a 69-year-old woman in Malheur County who tested positive on Oct. 7 and died on Oct. 19. Place of death is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 652nd COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old man in Washington County who tested positive on Oct. 3 and died on Oct. 17, at Tuality Community Hospital.

Oregon’s 653rd COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 28 and died on Oct. 22, at Salem Hospital.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301