October 17th COVID-19 and Wildfire Update

October 17, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

Today’s report on COVID shows a continuation of a relatively high plateau of new cases. This is partly due to a higher amount of testing, leading the state’s overall positivity rate to go down overall. That’s good. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Monday.  Deaths are reported, however, and, sadly, OHA has reported the death of three additional Oregonians from COVID.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  It allows us to see how the recent increases in new cases and positivity rates are again starting to slow down here in Oregon. Let’s hope that next Saturday we’ll see the same trend continuing.

On the wildfire front, I have nothing to add to yesterday’s report.  Everything appears to be very stable for now.  

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

• Positive Cases: OHA reports that 388 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive since the beginning of the pandemic is 39,316.
• Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 8,418. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday.  The cumulative total is now 781,643.
• Ratio: The percentage of positive test results for today is 4.6%.  The national ratio today is 5.1%.
• Deaths: I’m sorry to report 3 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 620.
• Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 2,886.
• Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
• Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
  • Patients Currently with COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 190 (9 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 149 have already received a positive test back.
  • Available ICU Beds: 161 (2 fewer than yesterday)
  • Other Available Beds: 664 (55 more than yesterday).
  • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 44 (5 fewer than yesterday).
  • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 15 (1 fewer than yesterday).
  • Available Ventilators: 786 (8 fewer than yesterday).
• Dashboards
  • Oregon (OHA)
  • Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, & Yamhill Counties
• Today’s National Numbers:
  • Total Tests: 123,830,950 (up 1,165,552 from yesterday).
  • Total Cases: 8,067,332 (up 59,642 from yesterday.)
  • Deaths: 211,014 (up 797 from yesterday).
  • These national numbers come from the COVID Tracking Project. You can follow their updated numbers for each state and the nation as a whole here.
• Additional Brief Updates:
  • One of the counties hardest hit by COVID since the beginning of the pandemic has been Marion County. The Salem Reporter’s Rachel Alexander provides a useful view of what it looks like through the eyes of a Salem Hospital doctor.
  • For some interesting views of the trajectory of the pandemic, I’d recommend the work of Dan Goodspeed. You can see animated state-by-state comparisons of cases and deaths over time, including an interesting “Red State vs. Blue State” comparison.  To see Oregon, you’ll want to click on the “Fewest Cases” or “Fewest Deaths” tabs because of the way we’ve been able to keep our cases and deaths relatively low in our state.

What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARD that the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of October 16: 

This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning o06.4    f the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred a month or more ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. In fact, there are only a handful of moves up or down by one or two spots.

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.  

Here’s a table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties right now. The most striking change is Wheeler County, which had its first case last week, which caused it to soar from last place to second place in the chart below. It remains in last place in the chart above, and that’s likely where it will remain in the future.

Looking at the tables below, showing the new cases, new tests, positivity rates, and deaths in the different counties, we can see what’s been going on over the last week. The big jumps that we saw in the previous week appear to have moderated this week, which is good to see.

The percentage increases in positive test results may seem inordinately high when working off of a small base or when overall testing goes up rapidly in a county. Again, the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county is by the percentage of positive test results each week.  However, it’s important that we have broad testing to be able to catch both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.  Fortunately, we’ve starting to see higher testing in the last week, which has caused our positivity rates to begin to go back down.

In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

If you’re interested in seeing an even more granular picture of what’s happening on the ground, cumulatively and over the last week, The Oregonian has created an interactive map of cases by zip code.

Saturday Wildfire Update

Below again are two tables that reveal the progress made in containment of the six remaining major fires over the last 24 hours.  You’ll see that for the second day in a row, no changes have been reported.

Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

You can find an up-to-the-moment status report on road closures from ODOT’s Trip Check tool.

Wildfire Impact/Recovery Updates

Oregon Emergency Management does not update us over the weekend, so the statistics below are the same as Friday’s.

Here again are some highlights:

• The number of fatalities (9) and missing persons (1) remains the same.
• The number of residences reported destroyed has gone down a little to 4,002. More than 1,400 structures other than residences have also been destroyed.
• According to the Red Cross, 1,794 Oregonians remain in emergency housing. Of those, 81 are living in RVs and tents, and 1,713 are in hotels/motels and other short-term settings.  There are no evacuees living in indoor congregate shelters any longer.
• The number of Oregonians who have registered with FEMA for individual assistance has soared to 19,608. FEMA has already approved for $19.1 million in assistance grants.
• Here they are by county:
  • Clackamas County: 1,656
  • Douglas County: 9,256
  • Jackson County: 3,816
  • Klamath County: 160
  • Lane County: 1,336
  • Lincoln County: 697
  • Linn County: 566
  • Marion County: 1,674
• In addition, 1,911 Oregonians have applied for short-term critical needs assistance. They have received $955,500 so far.
• Still, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

• Call 1-800-621-3362
• Online through the FEMA website
• Through the FEMA mobile app
• Step-by-step videos for IA are available in English and Spanish to walk applicants through the application process.

Wildfire Informational Resources

• Again, for one-stop information about fires, firefighting response, smoke levels, relief for evacuees, and much more, you can find a variety of Wildfire-related Resources at the Governor’s Wildfire Website.  It also takes you to the Department of Forestry’s Wildfire site, which gives you the daily updates on each of the fires.  I really encourage you to check this one out first—there’s a wealth of info and links here, including on how to volunteer, donate, or otherwise help. 
• For the daily informational releases on the major fires, go to the ODF Wildfire News Page.
• Here are regular updates on road conditions from ODOT.
• The Office of Emergency Management provides regular updates at the OEM Twitter page and at the OEM Facebook page.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 388.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (1)

Benton (2)

Clackamas (30)

Columbia (4)

Coos (5)

Crook (5)

Deschutes (13)

Douglas (7)

Jackson (24)

Josephine (2)

Klamath (1)

Lane (48)

Linn (8)

Malheur (13)

Marion (49)

Morrow (1)

Multnomah (95)

Polk (8)

Umatilla (13)

Union (1)

Wallowa (1)

Wasco (1)

Washington (50)

Yamhill (6)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 618th COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Oct. 3 and died Oct. 9 at Portland Adventist Medical Center.

Oregon’s 619th COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old woman in Wallowa County who tested positive on Sept. 14 and died Sept. 29 at her residence.

Oregon’s 620th COVID-19 death is a 92-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Oct. 3 and died Oct. 16 at his residence.

Additional Graphs:

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

• Multnomah County has a status report on reopening.
• You can view the reopening status of all 36 counties here.
• Here is the OHA’s coronavirus page, with links to a number of resources. 
• Oregon's Office of Emergency Management now has a website for information about COVID-19.
• You can sign up here for regular coronavirus updates from OHA.
• Multnomah County has an excellent website with lots of really important advice and guidance.
• Here’s one from the Governor’s Office.
• The Employment Department has put together a webpage with Q&A’s on a number of employment issues related to COVID-19 (e.g., eligibility for Unemployment Insurance benefits).
• The Oregon Education Department has a new site for COVID-19 updates.
• The Department of Corrections has a COVID tracking website.

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301