October 2nd COVID-19 and Wildfire Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 10/02/2020 08:22 PM PDT
Michael Dembrow

October 2, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these difficult times.

Today the news from the fires is good, and today’s COVID news for Oregon is somewhat positive.  Case numbers are slightly down, as is the positivity rate and the number of new hospitalizations.

While our COVID picture is still relatively good compared to many other state, we learn from the just-released Modeling Report that our trends are moving in the wrong direction.  This is due to a variety of factors related to testing, the wildfires, new outbreaks, and likely the results of people experiencing “COVID fatigue” and lowering their guards.

The news that the President now has COVID and has had to be admitted to the hospital is extremely dispiriting, shocking on the one hand and predictable on the other.  Let’s hope that he recovers quickly and does not experience long-term effects from the disease.  But let’s also hope that the President’s illness reminds us all that this pandemic is still very much with us and that we all need to remain cautious and responsible.

Please let me know if you have any questions about anything in this newsletter.

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 285 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID. The cumulative total since the beginning of the pandemic is 32,486.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 5,412. The cumulative total is now 695,616.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is 5.3%.  The national ratio today is 4.2%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 3 additional death due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 563.
  • Hospitalized: OHA reports an additional 5 COVID hospitalizations today. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID is 2,618.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases. OHA reports 29 new presumed positives today.  There are currently 1,677 Oregonians who have been presumed positive for COVID-19.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 176 (3 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 130 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 172 (6 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 665 (4 more than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 48 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 17 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 810 (9 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • The Governor has added two additional counties—Benton and Clatsop-- to the County Watch List. The Watch List triggers additional state contact-tracing support to counties that are seeing large increases in untraced community spread of COVID. They join Malheur County, bringing the total number on the Watch List to three.  Read the Governor’s announcement here.
    • The Office of Emergency Management sent legislators a copy of a press release that went out today detailing the process for wildfire cleanup and recovery. The state, EPA, and FEMA will pay for removal of hazardous waste and other elements of cleanup, as long as certain steps are followed. The release provides more information about that.
    • I mentioned the other day that FEMA has opened a resource center in Medford. We just received word that another center is being set up in Eugene. The center will accommodate in-person visits (following COVID protocols), where residents can get information about their application, ask questions about letters they receive from FEMA and have their documents scanned into their case file. The hours of operation are 8 a.m. to 6 p.m., seven days a week.  Here’s information about the new center in English and in Spanish.
    • OSU is using its TRACE Study apparatus to help identify COVID outbreaks on or near its campuses. Wastewater analysis is allowing them to see that COVID is present in individual dormitories and apartment buildings, and then follow that up with testing of residents.  You can read more about this new process here.  I was part of a national meeting related to COVID and college campuses today and heard that this is a strategy that’s being pursued on other campuses as well.
    • The Register-Guard has a story today about the situation in Lane County.  As you’ll see in today’s county case report below, Lane County is continuing to show high numbers of new cases each day. This article describes some of the sources of these new cases.  Some can be tied to UO reopening, but most are out in the larger community now.

Disease Model Update: A Less Rosy Picture

OHA released its latest modeling report today from the Institute for Disease Modeling.   It’s based on data through September 24, already reflecting a worsening of our disease metrics. Based on those data (which includes both case data and hospitalization data), they have modified their projections to show a higher likelihood of case increases, following the declines that we saw in earlier projections.

The model assumes that only one-third of cases are showing up in positive test results.  The remainder are asymptomatic and potentially spreading the disease.

The modelers now believe that the “Re” (Effective Reproduction Number, the number of secondary cases generated by a single case) in Oregon has increased from .9 to greater than 1.0 (most likely somewhere around 1.13). As a result, instead of seeing numbers go down, we are seeing an increase in the number of new cases.

The projection report again provides us with three possible scenarios looking forward, but with some modifications.  Instead of calling them “As-Is,” “Best Case,” and “Worst Case Scenarios,” they are now being referred to as “Moderate,” “Optimistic,” and “Pessimistic” scenarios.

Moderate:

If we continue as we are now (with an Re of 1.13), by October 22 the number of positive test results will be approximately 390 positive test results each day, totaling approximately 1,190 if we include undetected cases. The number of daily new severe cases (i.e., requiring hospitalization) will increase to 25.

Optimistic

Even this optimistic scenario assumes an Re of about 1.04, leading to case increases by October 22.  The daily rate will increase slightly to approximately 270 positive test results per day. The total number of detected and undetected cases will increase to 800.  We’ll see the hospitalization rate increase to 24 per day.

Pessimistic

This scenario assumes an Re of about 1.17, leading to 570 new positive test results per day by October 22, and a total of detected and undetected cases of 1,700.  The number of hospitalizations will rise to 32 per day.

If we compare earlier model reports to this one, we see the effects of erratic testing, disruptions and negative health effects due to wildfire and poor air quality, and a relaxing of safeguards against virus transmission. The modelers also recognize that their earlier methodology was leading to overly optimistic projections and have made some technical changes that you can read about in the report.

The modelers conclude their report by pointing out the uncertainties in predictions due to a variety of factors and unexpected events (such as wildfire), while also reminding us that the future course of the disease is something that we can influence:  While increasing infections is discouraging, the virus is very sensitive to changes in transmission so Oregonians can achieve decreasing trends in transmission and fewer cases if they redouble prevention efforts, such as wearing facial coverings, avoiding large gatherings, and adhering to other guidance.

Friday Wildfire Update

Favorable weather conditions have allowed firefighters to continue to strengthen containment lines and prevent any substantial increases in acres burned.

Below again are two tables showing overall containment and some progress from yesterday to today.

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Again, for maps and up-to-the-minute details on the individual fires, I’d direct you to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

You can find an up-to-the-moment status report on road closures from ODOT’s Trip Check tool.

  • I’m happy to report that the number of confirmed fatalities remains at 9, and the number of those confirmed missing remains at 3. Every loss is a tragedy of course, but these are remarkably low numbers given the devastation we experienced. We owe a great deal to many people for this.
  • The number of residences (specifically, manufactured homes) destroyed by wildfire has been reduced as a result of further investigation.
    • Residences destroyed: 2,900 (had been 3,124)
      • Single Family: 1,069
      • Multi-Family (Apartment): 197
      • Manufactured Homes: 1634 (down from 1,858)
    • Other structures destroyed: 1,403
  • More than 200 additional Oregonians have successfully registered with FEMA for individual assistance over the last 24 hours, bringing the total number to 6,835 Oregonians who have already had their applications approved. $14.5 million dollars has already been approved for distribution.
  • Assistance provided by FEMA for homeowners can include grants for repairs to make their primary home habitable. Rental assistance is available to pay for temporary housing for homeowners and renters.
  • Assistance can also help with other immediate disaster-related needs like replacing essential household items, medical and dental expenses, diapers, etc. So far, more than $3 million has already gone out to meet these immediate needs.
  • In addition to FEMA grants, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) offers low-cost disaster loans for homeowners, renters, and businesses. This includes Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDLs) for small businesses. Anyone seeking an SBA disaster loan need to register with FEMA first. More than $2.2 million has already been approved for SBA loans and grants to 27 homeowners.
  • Again, if you know of anyone who has NOT yet registered, please direct them to the following:

The Office of Emergency Management put out a reminder to those returning to their homes to pay special attention to disposal of hazardous waste, which requires special handling. Specifically,

  • Fuel, propane tanks and petroleum products
  • Car batteries, engine oil and antifreeze
  • Solvents, aerosols and paint
  • Fertilizers and pesticides
  • Bleach and disinfectants
  • Ammunition

Those dealing with the after-effects of the Clackamas County fires can take advantage of a special hazardous waste collection event that DEQ has organized in Sandy tomorrow from 9 am to 1 pm.  You can find the details here.

Wildfire Informational Resources

Here again are some other resources that I would recommend:

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 314. Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (1)

Benton (8)

Clackamas (15)

Clatsop (3)

Columbia (1)

Coos (2)

Deschutes (4)

Douglas (3)

Hood River (1)

Jackson (13)

Jefferson (1)

Josephine (8)

Klamath (4)

Lane (39)

Lincoln (1)

Linn (6)

Malheur (12)

Marion (37)

Morrow (1)

Multnomah (59)

Polk (5)

Umatilla (12)

Wasco (2)

Washington (66)

Yamhill (10)

And the Deaths

Orgon’s 561st COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old woman from Wasco County who tested positive on Sept. 16 and died on Sept. 28 in her residence.

Oregon’s 562nd COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Aug. 27 and died on Sept. 30 in his residence.

Oregon’s 563rd COVID-19 death is an 84-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 21 and died on Sept. 30 at Salem Hospital.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301