September 12th COVID-19 & Wildfire Update

Oregon State Legislature sent this bulletin at 09/12/2020 11:42 PM PDT
Michael Dembrow

September 12, 2020

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends in these incredibly difficult times.

The fire conditions remain very difficult, but they seem to have stabilized.  Many Oregonians remain missing, and we can only pray that they are safe somewhere.  We’ll have a better sense of that tomorrow and the day after.  The same can be said for those in a state of uncertainty about their homes and the all that they had to leave behind.

Meanwhile, for those who are in safe zones, air quality remains dangerous. It certainly is where I live.  We hear that Portland currently has the worst air quality in the world for a major city.  Some of the smaller cities in the state are currently experiencing air that’s even worse.

Because it’s the weekend, legislators didn’t receive a formal briefing today, but I’ve collected some updates and links to resources that I hope you’ll find useful.

On the COVID front, we’re seeing an uptick in cases and positivity rate.  That may be the result of anomalies, something we’ll know better in a few days.  The next week will be a really important time, as we’ll know the effects of the Labor Day weekend and will hopefully not see the upwards surge that we saw in previous holiday weekends.

Meanwhile, sadly, we hit another milestone in the trajectory of the pandemic in Oregon, as we crossed the 500-death threshold with 6 Oregonians reported lost to the disease, bringing us to 505 so far.

Since it’s Saturday, you’ll find only partial reporting on some of the metrics tracking coronavirus in Oregon.  Instead of giving us the positive test results alone, over the weekend OHA combines those numbers with the relatively small number of those who are presumed to be positive based on their symptoms and close proximity to someone who has tested positive, but whose test results have not yet come back.  But it still gives us a good idea of what’s going on. 

We also don’t get hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so we won’t know what the rate of increase is till Tuesday.  Deaths are reported, however, and today OHA reported the death of five Oregonians of different ages from around the state.

As I’ve been doing on Saturdays for a while, I’m also taking the opportunity to look back at what’s going on in our individual counties on a week-by-week basis over the last month.  The number of new cases and positivity rate has slowly, gradually been going down for the state as a whole when we look at things on a weekly basis, but we continue to see wide variation from county to county.

Again, please let me know if you have any questions about any of the information in this newsletter.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that 293 additional Oregonians have tested positive or are presumed positive (see below for definition) for COVID. OHA does not report positive test results alone over the weekend. I’ll be able to readjust the numbers on Monday to remove the presumed positives. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is 29,156.
  • Total Tests: The number of reported tests has increased by 5,770. Today’s increase in total results also includes presumed positives in the total results, so may be a little high. I’ll readjust the numbers on Monday. The cumulative total is now 610,104.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive test results in Oregon is 5.1%.  The national ratio today is 4.9%.
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 6 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the Oregonians we lost further down in the newsletter.  The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now at 505.
  • Hospitalized: OHA does not report on hospitalizations over the weekend. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID thus remains at 2,235.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases. The number of new presumed positives today is 19. The total number of presumed positives is currently 1,405.
  • Other Hospital Information: OHA DOES NOT REPORT hospitalization information over the weekend, so the numbers below are the same as Friday’s.
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 161 (1 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 100 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 128 (26 fewer than yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 613 (5 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 43 (3 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 19 (1 fewer than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 778 (9 fewer than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • Additional Brief Updates:
    • Governor Kate Brown has issued Executive Order 20-42, declaring an abnormal market disruption as a result of the statewide wildfire emergency. This order is in response to unusual increases in lodging rates for Oregonians who have evacuated fire areas and concern that the wildfire emergency may prevent ready availability of other essential consumer goods and services. Read the news release.
  • The Employment Department has information on its website letting people know what to do if they are receiving benefits but have been displaced from their home. You’ll find that information here.  If you’re affected by the fires, you’ll be able to file your weekly claim late and still receive benefits retroactively.
  • More on LWA: I mentioned yesterday that the temporary Unemployment Insurances Lost Wages Assistance program is now underway.  It will restore half of the expired $600 federal supplement for the five weeks between July 26 and September 5.  It’s only available to people who can certify that their loss of work was due to the pandemic.  That’s automatic for those on PUA.  Those on regular UI or extended benefits UI will need to self-certify that their unemployment was due to the pandemic.  Here’s a set of Q&A’s about the programthat tells you more about the program, will show you what to do, and provides the appropriate links.

Saturday Wildfire Update:  The Situation Stabilizes

Things seem to be progressing pretty much as Fire Chief Doug Grafe predicted and hoped last night. The high winds have not returned, and what wind there is has largely shifted to coming from the west. Unfortunately, as I’m sure you’re experiencing, that means smoke remains trapped in much of the state.  That’s bad for air quality, of course, but it’s also bad for firefighting, in that it makes air operations difficult. However, it has allowed firefighters on the ground to begin to make some progress on these big fires.  Some long-awaited rain is projected to come on Monday night and Tuesday, at least for the Willamette Valley. 

Most of the fires are continuing to expand, but they are doing so slowly, and largely in a way that is not putting additional population areas at risk.  That includes the Riverside Fire, the big fire in Clackamas County not too far from the Portland suburbs.

We still don’t have a clear picture of the potential loss of life, as search-and-rescue teams are only now beginning their work.  Based on missing-person reports, though, many are still not accounted for.  As of 5 pm, fifty people were still on the missing-persons list in the Medford area.  I’m sure that there are similar lists in the other devastation areas.

For an up-to-the-minute look at what’s going on in each of these fires, including acres burned, percentage contained, known loss of life, and other data, I’d suggest that you go to OEM’s State of Oregon Fires and Hotspots Dashboard.

Here are some other resources that I would recommend:

Some News Items for You

  • Andy Nelson from the Eugene Register-Guard was able to join emergency personnel and go into the devastation area in the Holiday Farm Fire along in the McKenzie River east of Eugene. He calls the experience shocking and numbing.
  • Oregonian reporters did a comprehensive survey of the fires in the different counties this morning.
  • And here’s one from last night that looks at them fire by fire.
  • I mentioned the other day that the Department of Corrections decided Thursday afternoon to relocate the adults in custody at Coffee Creek Correctional Institution in Wilsonville out of an abundance of caution and concern that the Lionshead Fire in Clackamas County would join with the Beachie Creek Fire in Marion County, jump I-5, and reach the facility. Coffee Creek is mainly a women’s prison, but it’s also the intake center for the system as a whole, so there are a couple hundred men there as well, awaiting assignment to their first institution. Most were relocated to Deer Ridge in Madras.  DOC knew that it wouldn’t be easy.  They were assisted by National Guard soldiers and county parole and probation officers.  The final AICs didn’t reach Deer Ridge until 4 a.m. on Friday.  I’m hoping to get a briefing tomorrow on conditions there and the timetable for return.  For now, it appears that the move has been difficult both for the Coffee Creek AICs and those already in custody there.  You can read about that in this news item.
  • Governor Brown was on the PBS News Hour last night talking about the wildfires and the racial protests. You can watch the show or read the transcript.
  • Office of Emergency Management Director Andrew Phelps was interviewed by Rachel Maddow last night and offered up his assessment and fears. You can watch it here.

AGAIN:  Wildfire Advice to Pass On

Legislators have received the following additional requests to pass on.

  • Everyone should find out what the fire status for their area is. Check on your county’s web site. If you haven’t yet signed up for notifications (often referred to as “Reverse 911”), do so.  You can do that via your county’s website or go to https://www.publicalerts.org/.
  • Please don’t call 911 unless it’s a true emergency.
  • If you’re in or close to an evacuation zone, be prepared. Sudden shifts in wind can put you suddenly at risk. If you’re in a Zone 2 area, you should definitely have a plan for where you’re going and what you will take. 
  • Stay close to home if you can. Certainly, stay far away from the evacuation areas. We were clearly told today that that applies to legislators as well!
  • Know that in many cases, reunification is going to be a challenge. The Red Cross will be coordinating reunifications, so it’s important that evacuees register with their “Safe and Well Registry.”
  • If you’re looking for a loved one, check with the Red Cross first, rather than the police.
  • Consider donating to the Red Cross or any of the other organizations that will be stepping up to provide food, support, and shelter to those affected by these tragic conditions. They’re going to need our support.
  • If you have been evacuated and you believe that your home has likely sustained damage, it’s not too soon to reach out to your insurance company to make them aware of that and start the process of receiving the support you need.
  • Watch out for fraud. While these times bring out the best in people, they also bring out the worst.
  • In today’s press conference the request was made specifically to the press to please stay away from the danger zones for now. (They made the same request of elected officials yesterday.)

COVID-19:  What’s Going On In the Counties?

Each Saturday I’m tracking how individual counties are doing, especially now that we’re seeing big increases in cases around the state. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results (per 100K residents) and  the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)

But first, I want to reproduce the current INTERACTIVE COUNTY DASHBOARDthat the OHA has on its website.  It shows case counts and total testing by county since the pandemic, scaled to cases per 100,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size.  This is what we see as of September 11: 

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This is a useful view because it allows us to see the infection rate within each county, irrespective of their total populations.  Remember, though, that these are CUMULATIVE cases since the beginning of the pandemic.  If you look at the rankings, you can see the lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces and other congregate settings that occurred a month or more ago.  It also means that more recent outbreaks may not lead to big changes in the above rankings. 

While the cumulative infection rate is an important metric to look at, I believe an even more important metric is the rate of test results coming in positive.  The more you test, the lower that number should be, as you’re not just testing people with clear symptoms of COVID. Anything over 10% is cause for real concern.  Our school reopening target is 5%.  

Here’s a new table I’ve created that shows county rankings by the most recent week’s positivity rate.  When you compare it to the previous table. you get a better sense of what’s happening in the individual counties right now.  You’ll see that for last week at least, all but the top 11 are now under the 5% school-reopening standard for positivity.

b

Looking at the tables below, you’ll again see continuing improvements for the state as a whole, but ongoing problems in some counties.

The percentage increases in positive test results may seem inordinately high when working off of a small base or when overall testing goes up rapidly in a county. Again, the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county is by the percentage of positive test results each week.  In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the overall percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic. 

As you’ll see, the proportion of positive test results for the state as a whole is continuing to go down.  This week’s positivity rate is again the lowest it’s been since the end of June.

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Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 293. Two-thirds of today’s new cases are from outside the Portland Tri-County area.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Baker (2)

Benton (3)

Clackamas (15)

Clatsop (2)

Columbia (1)

Deschutes (9)

Douglas (4)

Jackson (11)

Jefferson (4)

Klamath (2)

Lane (13)

Lincoln (1)

Linn (3)

Malheur (28)

Marion (48)

Morrow (5)

Multnomah (68)

Polk (5)

Tillamook (1)

Umatilla (27)

Union (2)

Wasco (1)

Washington (26)

Yamhill (9)

And the Deaths

Oregon's 500th COVID-19 death is a 49-year-old woman in Umatilla County who tested positive on Aug.12 and died on Sept. 2 at Providence St. Mary's in Walla Walla, Washington.

Oregon's 501st COVID-19 death is a 76-year-old man in Washington County who tested positive on Aug. 27 and died on Sept. 6 at Adventist Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon's 502nd COVID-19 death is a 97-year-old woman in Clackamas County who tested positive on June 29 and died on Aug. 29 at Legacy Meridian Park Hospital.

Oregon's 503rd COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 27 and died on Sept. 5 in her residence.

Oregon's 504th COVID-19 death is a 63-year-old man in Multnomah County who died on Aug. 28 at Legacy Emanuel Hospital.

Oregon's 505th COVID-19 death is an 82-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Aug. 26 and died on Sept. 2 in his residence.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301