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August 7, 2020
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.
Today’s COVID numbers show large increases both in terms of new cases, positivity rate, and deaths. Hospitalization rates, including those in intensive care, are much more promising, which is a good sign for the future.
Again, while the daily reports are interesting, it’s the longer-term reports that are more useful. Tomorrow I’ll report on the county trends over the last several weeks, and we’ll see what they look like.
On a positive note, you can read below about the latest modeling that’s been done on the spread of COVID in Oregon. You’ll see that despite big increases in some counties and occasional daily jumps, overall they are seeing a gradual reduction in our transmission rates over the last month. If that keeps up, that’s good news indeed.
Over the weekend I also hope to give you more information about next week’s special session. We do know certain things. We know that it will begin Monday morning at 8. We know that it will be at the Capitol. We know that the Capitol will by necessity again be closed to outsiders. We know that face coverings will be required. We know that the primary purpose of the session will be to rebalance our state budget.
But much remains in the air. The final budget numbers are still being calculated, and the final budget bills still being drafted. I hope to be able to provide you with them tomorrow or Sunday. We still have disagreements around whether or not we will be taking up any policy bills in addition to the budget. I certainly hope that we will take up some additional policing reform bills; I believe that some are ready to go.
If we limit ourselves to the budget, this could be a one-day session. That would of course be the safest, given the risk of exposure to COVID in the middle of one of the state’s hotspots. (We are required for constitutional reasons to meet in person.) To give you a sense of the guidelines that we’re following as a result of COVID, here’s a set of instructions that just went out to all Senators.
If we do take up policy bills that become controversial, the session could last the entire week.
I hope to be able to tell you more tomorrow.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
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Positive Cases: OHA reports that 400 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is 19,562.
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Total Tests: I’m pleased to report that the number of tests has increased by 5,420. The cumulative total number of tests is now 436,619.
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Ratio: The percentage of positive tests today is 7.4% of total results. The national percentage today is 8.1%.
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Deaths: I’m very sorry to report 9 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today. You can read more about the persons we lost further down in the newsletter. The total number of COVID deaths in Oregon is now 348.
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Hospitalized: OHA reports that an additional 15 Oregonians have been hospitalized due to COVID. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID is now 1,758.
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Presumptive Cases: OHA is including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases. OHA reports 23 new presumed positives today. The total number of presumed positives is now 1,074.
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Other Hospital Information:
- Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 204(26 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 145 have already received a positive test back.
- Available ICU Beds: 173 (16 more than yesterday).
- Other Available Beds: 649 (7 more than yesterday).
- ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 51 (7 fewer than yesterday).
- COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 18 (9 fewer than yesterday).
- Available Ventilators: 779 (5 more than yesterday).
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Dashboards
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Today’s National Numbers:
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PPE:
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Additional Brief Updates:
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A new, troubling report suggests that Black and Hispanic children are being hospitalized at much higher rates than White children across the country. This is yet another example of the disproportionate impacts this disease is having on people of color.
- In a press conference today the Governor reported that face coverings will soon be required for office workers in their ordinary work settings. Given the diversity of possible settings, her medical and business advisors are still working out the details.
Disease Model Updated This Week: Perhaps Some Good News
We’ve received the latest update to the Institute for Disease Modeling’s Oregon COVID Epidemiological Model. It’s based on data as of the end of last week. Based on that data (which includes both case data and hospitalization data), they believe the signs are encouraging.
Looking back at July, they see a reduction in the spread of the virus. (The cumulative number of cases is still increasing, but the rate of increase is not.) This may be the result of the various orders issued in July, including more general use of face coverings, but it’s hard to know for sure.
Where the last update (reported in the 7/24/2020 newsletter) showed the disease reproducing at an “Re” (Effective Reproduction Number, the number of secondary cases generated by a single case) at 1.15, they now believe that the Re has gone down to 1.0, the point at which increases of the spread have been stabilized. If it goes down further, we’ll see a reduction in new cases.
They again provide us with three possible scenarios looking forward: a “best case” scenario in which transmission goes down by 10%, one in which it stays where it is now, and a “worst case” scenario in which the spread increases by 10%.
They are now assuming that for every confirmed case, there are likely around 4.2 undetected cases out there. They estimate the total number of those with COVID in the state to have been 88,800 as of July 30.
As Is
If we continue as we are now from July 31 to August 27 (with an Re of 1.0), the number of positive test results will hold steady at approximately 238 positive test results each day (totaling approximately 1,000 if we include the undetected cases). The model projects 117,200 cumulative infections by August 27th. The number of daily new severe cases (i.e., requiring hospitalization) increases slightly (from 17 to 19).
Best Case
In the “best case” scenario, assuming a reduction in spread of 10% over this period of time, we see an Re of about 0.75. The daily rate of increase will drop to approximately 71 positive test results per day. The total number of detected and undetected cases will drop to 300. The model projects 102,500 cumulative infections by August 27th under this scenario. We’ll see the hospitalization rate go down to 9 per day.
Worst Case
In the “worst case” scenario, assuming an INCREASE in spread of 10% over the next four weeks, we see an Re of about 1.3. The number of daily positive test results will increase to approximately 548, with the total number of detected and undetected cases increasing to 2,300 per day by August 27. The model projects 136,400 cumulative infections by August 27th. The number of hospitalizations will rise to 32 per day.
If you compare this update to the previous one (which you can read about in the July 24th newsletter), you can see the improvements in all these projections. Based on this current update, we seem to be somewhere between what was “As-Is” and “Best Case” last time, which is great news if it keeps up.
Needless to say, the model doesn’t tell us WHICH scenario we will actually experience over the next month. That will be a function of how Oregonians adhere to face-covering, limits on gatherings, and other policies. We are continuing to see something like the “worst case” scenario (and worse) playing out in some other states, and we definitely don’t want to be following them.
Where Are Today’s New Cases?
If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 423. We see particularly large case numbers from Multnomah County and the Umatilla/Morrow area of Eastern Oregon. Here is the breakdown by county for today:
Baker (1)
Benton (3)
Clackamas (16)
Clatsop (1)
Columbia (2)
Deschutes (18)
Douglas (3)
Grant (1)
Hood River (3)
Jackson (12)
Jefferson (5)
Josephine (3)
Klamath (1)
Lane (13)
Lincoln (1)
Linn (6)
Malheur (21)
Marion (47)
Morrow (21)
Multnomah (110)
Polk (7)
Umatilla (53)
Union (2)
Wasco (3)
Washington (53)
Yamhill (17)
And the Deaths
Oregon’s 340th COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on July 30 and died on August 5.
Oregon’s 341st COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old woman in Deschutes County who tested positive on July 20 and died on July 31.
Oregon’s 342nd COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old man in Jackson County who tested positive on July 15 and died on August 6.
Oregon’s 343rd COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old man in Jefferson County who tested positive on July 10 and died on August 5, at St. Charles Medical Center in Bend.
Oregon’s 344th COVID-19 death is a 64-year-old man in Klamath County who tested positive on July 27 and died on August 6, at Sky Lakes Medical Center.
Oregon’s 345th COVID-19 death is an 88-year-old man in Malheur County who tested positive on July 28 and died on August 2 in his residence.
Oregon’s 346th COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on July 8 and died on August 5 in his residence.
Oregon’s 347th COVID-19 death is 94-year-old man in Umatilla County who tested positive on July 16 and died on August 4 in his residence.
Oregon’s 348th COVID-19 death is a 93-year-old woman in Yamhill County who tested positive on July 28 and died on August 6.
Additional Graphs:
Want to See Past Newsletters?
If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there. Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful:
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
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