July 16th COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

July 16, 2020

Dear Neighbors and Friends:

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.  

OHA reported a new record number of positive test results today.  For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, the number of those reported to have tested new positive for the disease exceeds 400.  This is partly due to a very high number of tests reported today (more than 7,000), so the ratio of positive tests remained under 6%. 

OHA again stated that based on their contact tracing, this rise in cases is attributed to the spread of COVID-19 from social gatherings and other “sporadic” (community) spread. Worksite outbreaks and long-term care facility outbreaks also are contributing cases to the daily count.

I was invited to a national webinar on school reopening today, sponsored by a number of education research and policy organizations.  It featured two professors affiliated with  the Infectious Diseases Society of America, faculty members at Northwestern University and Emory University medical schools. They shared findings of a review of school reopenings in other countries and the experience of childcare centers here in the U.S.  The bottom line is that schools don’t exist in isolation.  In those countries (e.g., Denmark) where COVID had been contained, schools were able to open without negative consequences.  In others (e.g., Israel), where the disease was in the ascendant, the results were not good.  Here in the U.S., we have not seen big outbreaks in childcare centers in areas with low prevalence of the virus, but in places where the disease is surging, as in Texas right now, infections in childcare centers are surging as well. 

The decision of where and how to resume face-to-face schooling this fall is clearly going to depend on what’s going on in individual communities.  The doctors did not give a specific threshold below which it’s “safe” and above which it’s “dangerous.”  But this is something that every school district, every college and university is going to have to watch very carefully.  And even where it’s deemed “safe” to reopen, parents and staff are going to need to feel confident that safety protocols are firmly in place and will be followed.

In today’s newsletter you’ll also find information about the Legislature’s plans to rebalance the state budget—and what the consequences will be for our education and corrections systems.

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TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

  • Positive Cases: OHA reports that a record 401 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID. The cumulative total for those testing positive is 12,807.
  • Total Tests: The number of tests increased by 7,133. The cumulative total is now 318,244.
  • Ratio: The percentage of positive tests for today is 5.6% of total tests. The national percentage today is 8.6%. 
  • Deaths: I’m sorry to report 2 additional deaths due to the coronavirus.  The total number of deaths in Oregon in now 249.
  • Hospitalized: OHA is reporting 21 new COVID hospitalizations. The cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID is now 1,311.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  The total number of presumed positives is 703.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 219 (12 more than yesterday). Of those, 154 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 144 (3 more than yesterday).
    • Other Available Beds: 659 (32 fewer than yesterday).
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 63 (10 more than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 33 (3 more than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 781 (9 more than yesterday).
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  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • PPE:
  • Additional Brief Items:
    • The Joint Task Force on Transparent Policing and Use of Force Reform will have its third of this week’s meetings tomorrow (Friday) at 1 p.m. You can watch it or access the written materials here.  Tomorrow’s hearing will have two parts.  The first will be to hear the perspective of people working inside police bureaus, with invited testimony from Seattle’s former chief, Norm Stamper, who has done a lot of work on combating racism in policing since he left Seattle. There will also be several people from the Portland Police Bureau, including the new chief, Charles Lovell.  The second part will be to take public testimony on HB 4208, the bill regarding the use of tear gas that just passed in the last special session.  The Task Force is considering changes to it and wants to hear from the public.  If you go to the above link and scroll down, you’ll find information on how to sign up to speak remotely or to submit written comment.
    • The Bend City Council passed a travel advisory ordinance today restoring an earlier order that asked people to avoid non-essential travel to the region through Labor Day and encouraging hotels not to make any new reservations. Not surprisingly, many visitors are coming to Bend, and they’ve seen a rise in their cases over the last month.  The Council is hoping to get those numbers back down in time for school reopening.  Again not surprisingly, this was not a unanimous decision: the Council split 3-2.  .

Co-Chair Budget Proposal Released

The three Co-Chairs of the Joint House/Senate Committee on Ways and Means released a proposal to reshape the budget for the remainder of the 2019-20 biennium (i.e., until the end of June 2021) in light of the severe reduction in state revenues that we are experiencing.  The projected budget hole between now and the end of the biennium is $1.1 billion.  Work on rebalancing the budget has been going on for many weeks, involving discussions among the Co-Chairs, the Governor, the House Speaker, and the Senate President, with advice from other legislators, especially the Chairs of the various subcommittees of Ways and Means.

Here is the proposed budget and explanation.

As I’ve mentioned, we expect the Governor to call the Legislature into another special session at the end of July or the first part of August (more likely the latter) in order to make selective cuts and dip into reserves in order to rebalance the budget.  The Co-Chairs wanted to get the proposal out now, so there would be time to react to it and make adjustments as needed. The Ways and Means Subcommittees will be meeting in public session next week to hear public testimony.  Here’s the schedule for those meetings:

Wednesday, July 22:

Natural Resources: 9 am-12 pm

General Government: 1-4 pm

Thursday, July 23:

Education: 9 am-12 pm

Human Services: 1-4 pm

Friday, July 24:

Public Safety: 9 am-12 pm (I’m on this one.)

Transportation and Economic Development: 1-4 pm

The Budget Co-Chairs were asked to protect the Education budgets as much as possible, and they were able to do that.  The K-12, Community College, and for the most part the University budgets were able to avoid cuts.  In order to do that, we are taking around $400 million from our Education Stability Fund. (Fortunately, we have consistently put money into that reserve fund over the last decade). I wish I could say that this is going to ensure that schools, colleges, and universities are adequately funded next year, and if it weren’t for COVID I could.  But they are looking at huge added expenses to make their schools and campuses safe, and for the colleges and universities potential losses of income from tuition, food service, and dormitories for the universities. We’re hoping that additional federal dollars will help address these added costs.  The Senate is expected to take this up next week.

I’ll go into a more detailed explanation of the budget proposals in future newsletters.  One that I will mention (because it’s in the news) is a proposal to close two state prisons over the next year—one in North Bend and one in Lakeview. I can tell you that it’s going to be controversial.  Efforts to close prisons are difficult in every state because prisons tend to be located in rural areas whose local economies are very dependent on their prisons.  As a member of the Public Safety budget subcommittee, I’ll likely support this proposal, but I do hope that this action is part of a larger rethinking of ways to improve incarceration and public safety in general in our state.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 437. Multnomah and Washington counties are reporting their largest single-day counts today, but the majority of the state’s new cases are again from outside the Portland Tri-County region.  Here is the breakdown by county for today:

Benton (4)

Clackamas (28)

Clatsop (2)

Coos (2)

Deschutes (28)

Douglas (4)

Hood River (5)

Jackson (8)

Jefferson (6)

Josephine (1)

Klamath (3)

Lane (12)

Lincoln (3)

Linn (4)

Malheur (17)

Marion (53)

Morrow (8)

Multnomah (108)

Polk (7)

Tillamook (2)

Umatilla (50)

Union (1)

Wasco (2)

Washington (76)

Yamhill (3)

And the Deaths

Oregon’s 248th COVID-19 death is a 97-year-old man in Malheur County who tested positive on June 29 and died on July 15, in his residence..

Oregon’s 249th COVID-19 death is a 58-year-old woman in Malheur County who tested positive on July 6 and died on July 13.

Note from OHA : The date of Oregon’s 244th death was reported inaccurately yesterday. Oregon’s 244th COVID-19 death is a 63-year-old man in Deschutes County who tested positive on July 13 and died on July 14, at St. Charles Medical Center.

Additional Graphs:

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Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

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AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301