|
July 5, 2020
Dear Neighbors and Friends:
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.
Today’s newsletter again focuses on the ages of those who are experiencing COVID. You’ll see a continuation of the trend of those testing positive getting younger and younger. The largest group of new infections is among those in their 20s. 80% of the new cases are among those under the age of 50. This is presumably largely a function of workplace outbreaks and community spread among younger people as a result of reopening.
Although we are seeing increased hospitalizations (i.e., those who are displaying serious effects) among younger people, this category is still dominated by those over the age of 60.
Presumably, older Oregonians are remaining cautious and careful about exposing themselves to the virus. But with the increased spread among younger people, that will become more difficult. The more they are exposed to people who are asymptomatic but contagious, the greater the likelihood that they will catch the disease.
And we can see that the effects on older people become much more serious when they are exposed. This isn’t universally the case, of course. Most older people never become sick enough to require hospitalization, but many do.
I received an email today (not my first) in which an individual pointed out that the chances of dying from COVID are extremely low among those under the age of 70 (in Oregon it’s 25% of all deaths), and used that fact to argue that we had over-reacted in temporarily closing down certain businesses and social gatherings. We presumably should have allowed the virus to run its course and play itself out.
I’ll leave you to react to this perspective in your own way, based on your own values. I personally find it odious. Too many good people are dying well before their time as a result of this disease, and we should be focused on doing what we can to prevent that.
Just look at what’s happening now in Texas, particularly in the Houston area. We can see what happens when the disease is allowed to run its course, as infections are spreading to the point of getting out of control and hospital ICUs are approaching their limits. They are facing some extremely difficult days ahead.
And it’s not just a question of dying. We’re seeing increasing signs that many of those who have needed hospitalization because of COVID and who fortunately recover still carry with them very serious long-term negative health consequences.
The last four days have given us our four highest numbers of new cases here in Oregon. We need to commit to doing what we can to keep this disease from spreading.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
-
Positive Cases: OHA reports today that 301 additional Oregonians have either tested positive for COVID or are presumed positive due to symptoms while awaiting test results. The cumulative total for those testing positive and presumed positive is now 10,230. (On Monday I’ll be able to give the exact number of positive test results alone.)
-
Total Tests: OHA fixed its technical problem and has reported that the number of positive tests plus presumed positives plus negative tests increased by 9,469 for the two days since Friday. The cumulative total is now 264,201. On Monday I’ll be able give the exact number of positive and negative test results alone.
-
Ratio: The percentage of positive tests results and presumed positives for the last two days is 6.4%. The national percentage today is 6.5%.
-
Deaths: I regret to have to report 2 additional deaths due to the coronavirus. The total number of deaths in Oregon is now 215.
-
Hospitalized: OHA is not reporting new hospitalization numbers over the weekend, so for now the cumulative number of those who have been hospitalized with COVID remains at 1,069. I’ll have updated numbers on Monday.
-
Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.
-
Other Hospital Information: The numbers from yesterday will remain unchanged until Monday.
- Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 173 (19 fewer than yesterday). Of those, 116 have already received a positive test back, 10 more than on yesterday.
- Available ICU Beds: 168 (8 fewer than yesterday).
- Other Available Beds: 827 (39 more than yesterday).
- ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms: 52 (10 fewer than yesterday).
- COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 25 (1 more than yesterday).
- Available Ventilators: 806 (22 more than yesterday).
-
Dashboards
-
Today’s National Numbers:
-
PPE:
Looking at Age Metrics
Each Sunday I’ve been providing you with this week’s statewide case, hospitalization, and death metrics by age. Here is updated information as of July 2. You’ll see again that younger people have come to dominate the category of new cases. The largest single group of new cases are to be found in people in their twenties. 80% of new cases are now in people under the age of 50.
Hospitalizations continue to be dominated by those above the age of 60. Deaths are dominated by those above the age of 70.
What’s Going On In the Counties?
Each weekend I’m tracking how individual counties are doing now that nearly all are either in Phase One or Phase Two and we are seeing a number of relaxations statewide as well. The key metrics that OHA is watching are the number of positive test results and the percentage of positive test results among all tests administered; the latter will be the more important way for us to see if the infection rate is increasing as a result of reopening and increased testing. (They also are looking at hospital capacity and changes in hospitalization rates, but I don’t have that information by county.)
But first, I want to reproduce the current interactive county dashboard that the OHA has on its website. It shows case counts and total testing by county, scaled to cases per 10,000, so that we can see how the infection is penetrating the various counties, irrespective of their population size. This is what we see as of July 2:
If you look at the rankings, you can see the influence and lingering effects of outbreaks at workplaces (especially agriculture and food processing), congregate care facilities, and the church community in Union County. They are particularly noticeable in the less populous counties.
Looking at the tables below, you’ll again see significant increases this week both in the numbers of new cases and in the percentages of new cases. The latter is the more accurate way to gauge the penetration of the disease in a given county. In order to make the current trends in positive percentages more obvious, I’m again showing you the week-over-week percentages, along with the percentage of positive cases for each county since the beginning of the pandemic.
Where Are Today’s New Cases?
If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 301. Nearly half are from the Portland metro area, and the remainder are scattered around the state, with Umatilla and Marion again showing large case counts. Here is the breakdown by county for today:
Clackamas (25)
Columbia (3)
Crook (1)
Deschutes (8)
Douglas (4)
Hood River (5)
Jackson (3)
Jefferson (1)
Josephine (3)
Lane (10)
Malheur (15)
Marion (38)
Morrow (9)
Multnomah (72)
Sherman (1)
Umatilla (41)
Union (1)
Wasco (3)
Washington (51)
Yamhill (7)
And the Deaths
Here is the information that OHA reported regarding those we’ve lost most recently:
Oregon’s 214th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old woman in Lincoln County who tested positive on June 30 and died on July 2, in her residence.
Oregon’s 215th COVID-19 death is a 70-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on June 11 and died on July 3, at Salem Hospital.
More information is known about Oregon’s 213th COVID-19 death. She is an 86-year-old woman in Lincoln County who tested positive on June 29 and died on July 1, at Samaritan Pacific Community Hospital.
By the way, when OHA refers to the person’s “residence,” that may be their home but is more likely a long-term care facility.
Additional Graphs:
Want to See Past Newsletters?
If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there. Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful:
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
| 
