June 12th COVID-19 Update

June 12, 2020

Dear Neighbors and Friends:

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.

In a press conference this morning, the Governor explained her decision to hold off on allowing Multnomah County from entering Phase One today, as had been widely expected. (She also “hit the pause button” on several other counties seeking to move to Phase Two.) You can watch the news conference here. She told reporters that it was a difficult decision, but one that she had to make out of concern for the safety and health of Oregonians.  The pause is for one week, and is the result of the growing number of case counts and higher hospitalization rates that we’ve seen in the last week. 

I respect the decision and the difficult position that the Governor is in.  It’s crucial that we do reopening carefully and cautiously.  Still, I wish that she and her advisors had come to this position a few days ago in order to give businesses and residents more planning time.  It’s not clear to me why that didn’t happen.

Today’s number of new infections is high again, but again so are the number of new tests, so the percentage of positive test results remains relatively low overall.  New COVID hospitalizations have gone up, which is definitely something to watch. They are likely the result of infections that began a week or two ago.

In today’s newsletter you’ll see the latest COVID modeling projection, which as you’ll see contains a great deal of uncertainty right now. Along with various updates and new guidances, you’ll also find information about the Governor’s laudable decision to consider commutations for adults in custody who have serious medical conditions and are at particular risk of severe consequences from the virus.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

• Positive Cases: OHA reports that 131 additional Oregonians have tested positive for COVID-19.  The cumulative total is now 5,207.
• Total Tests: The total number of tests in Oregon now stands at 166,019. That’s a large increase of 4,376 tests from yesterday.
• Ratio: The percentage of positive results for today is 3.0%. Today’s national percentage is 4.1%.  See below for a graph showing Oregon’s daily percentage changes over the last 14 days. 
• Deaths: I’m afraid I have to report 2 additional deaths due to the coronavirus today.  The total number of deaths in Oregon is now at 173.   
• Hospitalized: OHA reported 11 new hospitalizations today. The cumulative total of those who’ve been hospitalized for COVID-19 is now 875.
• Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases. Today’s number of new presumed cases is 11, and the total number of those presumed positive is 170.
• Other Hospital Information:
  • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 130 (3 more than yesterday). Of those, 69 have already received a positive test back.
  • Available ICU Beds: 158 (31 fewer than yesterday).
  • Other Available Beds: 882 (22 fewer than yesterday).
  • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 47 (8 more than yesterday).
  • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 15 (4 fewer than yesterday).
  • Available Ventilators: 792 (6 more than yesterday).
• Dashboards:
  • Oregon (OHA)
  • Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, & Yamhill Counties
• Today’s National Numbers:
  • Total Tests: 22,517,262 (up 629,194 from yesterday).
  • Positive Tests: 2,037,530 (up 25,578 from yesterday).
  • Deaths: 108,554 (up 786 from yesterday).
  • These national numbers come from the COVID Tracking Project. You can follow their updated numbers for each, state and the nation as a whole here.
• PPE:
  • In the last 24 hours the Emergency Coordination Center has not received any additional Personal Protective Equipment. You can track the history of incoming and outgoing PPE shipments here.
• Additional Brief Updates:
  • A new set of guidelines for Oregon's colleges and universities regarding their plans for Fall term was released today. I’ve shared with you some of the national recommendations for colleges and universities.  Here is a combination of requirements and recommendations from the state.
  • OHA has also developed guidance on allowing visitors/companions to patients in acute care settings (hospitals, ambulatory surgical centers, and dialysis facilities). It seeks to balance the need to protect patients and the emotional and physical toll that restrictions and limitations have on families and friends.
  • The Oregon Supreme Court has ordered the Baker County judge who placed an injunction against the Governor’s emergency COVID orders (which the Supreme Court then temporarily suspended) to remove the injunction permanently. You can read about the decision in this piece from The Oregonian.  The article includes the court's opinion, written by Justice Garrett, joined by Justice Balmer.
  • DHM Research has just released another of their highly-regarded Oregon values and beliefs surveys, this one focused on the economic effects of the COVID pandemic. They find that Oregonians are split on when to fully re-open the economy and what life will look like as we transition away from COVID-19 life. Despite now living in a recession, Oregonians appear less worried than they were in March regarding their financial situations. It makes for interesting reading.

Latest Epidemiological Model Discusses Effects of Reopening

The OHA has released its latest update to the Institute for Disease Modeling’s projections for COVID in Oregon.  The analysis of the effects of Oregon’s coronavirus response to date suggests that the epidemic has slowed in Oregon since its beginning, but that transmission appears to be increasing since reopening.

They provide three different scenarios for how reopening may play out.  They suggest that even small increases in transmission levels could lead to increased cases.  The most optimistic scenario sees us returning to the more stable position that we were in prior to the recent workplace outbreaks; the most pessimistic has the numbers rising sharply, so that by July 3 we would be seeing more than 900 new cases a day.

By the way, the update points out that it is still too early to tell if the recent marches and rallies in support of Black Lives Matter have made a difference in the infection rates.

Medically Vulnerable Adults in Custody Slated for Possible Commutation

This afternoon the Governor sent a letter to the Department of Corrections, directing Director Colette Peters to prepare a list of AICs who are at particular risk of severe consequences for contracting COVID-19 for possible commutation of their sentences.  They must already have served at least half of their sentences, not been sentenced for a violent crime, been deemed not to be a risk to the community, and have housing and medical care available upon release.  The list must be presented to the Governor by June 22.  You can see more details in the letter.

This is an important step, important of course for the affected AICs, but important also for the corrections facilities and all who live and work there.  It’s something that I’ve been working on for some time now.  I’ll have more to say about it next week.

Where Are Today’s New Cases?

If we put together the positive test results and new “presumptive” cases reported today, the overall number of new cases is 178.  Here is the breakdown by county for today: 

Clackamas (9)

Columbia (3)

Deschutes (2)

Hood River (3)

Klamath (2)

Lincoln (14)

Marion (29)

Multnomah (36)

Polk (9)

Umatilla (5)

Union (4)

Wallowa (1)

Wasco (3)

Washington (21)

And the Deaths:

The OHA had this to say about those we’ve most recently lost to COVID-19:

Oregon’s 172nd COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old man in Washington County, who tested positive on May 10 and died on June 11 in his residence. He did not have underlying medical conditions.

Oregon’s 173rd COVID-19 death is a 68-year-old man in Multnomah County, who tested positive on June 1 and died on June 10 at Adventist Hospital. He had underlying medical conditions.

OHA also just released additional details about a previously reported case, Oregon’s 164th COVID-19 death. He is a 71-year-old man in Malheur County, who tested positive on June 1 and died on May 31 at the Saint Alphonsus Medical Center in Boise. He had underlying medical conditions.

Additional Graphs:

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

• Multnomah County has a status report on reopening.
• You can view the reopening status of all 36 counties here.
• Here is the OHA’s coronavirus page, with links to a number of resources. 
• Oregon's Office of Emergency Management now has a website for information about COVID-19.
• You can sign up here for regular coronavirus updates from OHA.
• Multnomah County has an excellent website with lots of really important advice and guidance.
• Here’s one from the Governor’s Office.
• The Employment Department has put together a webpage with Q&A’s on a number of employment issues related to COVID-19 (e.g., eligibility for Unemployment Insurance benefits).
• The Oregon Education Department has a new site for COVID-19 updates.
• The Department of Corrections has a COVID tracking website.

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23

email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301