May 9th COVID-19 Update

Michael Dembrow

May 9, 2020

Dear Neighbors and Friends:

I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.

Hope you were able to have an enjoyable Saturday and, if you’re a mother, hope you and your loved ones have figured out a way to celebrate our first (and only?) Corona-Mother’s Day tomorrow.  I assume that the phone lines and the zoom lines will be humming. 

Best wishes for a great day.

In today’s newsletter you’ll find information about the first counties that have applied to be given the green light to begin Phase One of the reopening process on Friday.  You’ll also find the weekly testing summary and the weekly modeling report.

TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE

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 ***Please notice that I’m using an exponential scale for the Y axis on this graph.  Doing it this way allows me to keep all three in a single graph and allows for a more realistic sense of the upward curves of the three data points (positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths).

  • Positive Cases: OHA has reported that 79 additional Oregonians tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday, putting the total at 3,111.
  • Total Tests: The total number of tests in Oregon now stands at 74,571. That’s an increase of 1,914 tests.
  • Ratio:  The percentage of positive results for today is at 4.1%. That remains lower than the national percentage for today, which is now at 8.4%.  See below for a graph showing Oregon’s daily ratio changes over the last month.
  • Deaths: I’m afraid that I have to report 3 more deaths due to the virus as of today. That brings the total number of deaths in Oregon to 127.         
  • Hospitalized: The number of Oregonians who have been hospitalized with symptoms, and who have also tested positive for the disease, is now at 662. This is an increase of 3 from yesterday.
  • Presumptive Cases: OHA is now including “presumptive COVID-19 cases” in its daily reports, consistent with recently amended guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A presumptive case is someone who does not yet have a positive PCR test result but is showing symptoms and has had close contact with a confirmed case. If they later test positive by PCR, those will be recategorized as confirmed cases.  Today the number of new presumptive cases is 13, with the total at 49.
  • Other Hospital Information:
    • Patients Currently w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 139 (a decrease of 20 from yesterday). Of those, 64 have already received a positive test back.
    • Available ICU Beds: 219 (a decrease of 22 from yesterday)
    • Other Available Beds: 1,905 (an increase of 6 from yesterday)
    • ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 34 (8 fewer than yesterday).
    • COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 19 (1 more than yesterday).
    • Available Ventilators: 799 (7 more than yesterday).
  • Today’s National Numbers:
  • PPE:
    • In the last 24 hours the Emergency Coordination Center has received another 60,000 N95 respirator masks and 72,000 face shields.
  • Other Brief Updates:
    • The OHA reported a sharp decrease in the number of children and adults being immunized in Oregon over the last two months. This isn’t surprising, given the suspension of non-emergency procedures (lifted only a week ago) and ongoing concern around seeking medical care, and it mirrors a national pattern reported by the CDC.  You can read the actual survey results here.

Additional Daily Graphs:

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Which Counties Hope to Enter Reopening Phase One on Friday?

The Governor’s Office has made it very easy for us all to track which counties have applied to enter Phase One and see their arguments and detailed proposals.  The Governor's COVID website, which, by the way, has been revamped and is a great compendium of clear, useful information, particularly with respect to reopening). 

I’d suggest that you go to it if you want to see the latest county applicants. Open one or two for a behind-the-scenes glimpse of what is required, who in the county is supporting, and the unique characteristics of individual counties in Oregon. 

For now, here is the list in alphabetical order of the 15 counties that are currently under review (go to the website for the most current list):

  • Baker County
  • Curry County
  • Deschutes County
  • Gilliam County
  • Grant County
  • Harney County
  • Hood River County
  • Jackson County
  • Jefferson County
  • Josephine County
  • Lane County
  • Linn County
  • Sherman County
  • Tillamook County
  • Wallowa County

To see current metrics for each county, see the next item.

How Are the Counties Doing?

These are Friday’s numbers.  I’ll start giving weekly updates to these each Friday, so that we can track how the individual counties are doing. 

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*I should point out that numbers for Coos County include those for the adults in custody and staff at Shutter Creek Correctional Institution, which has unfortunately been a “hotspot” for COVID.  SCCI is responsible for 27 positive test results in that county.

Weekly Modeling Report

We’ve just received our weekly report from the Institute for Disease Modeling, which the OHA has been using to monitor the effects of the policy decisions that the state has made.  It is based on May 7 data.

There isn’t much different from the last report.  They still believe that the restrictions that were put in place in March enabled us to reduce the number of infections by 70%, thereby avoiding a significant amount of medical harm.  They anticipate that the steps that are envisioned in the Reopening Oregon plan—assuming that they include vigorous testing and tracing—will still allow us to keep the infection avoidance rate in the 50-60% range.  The infection and hospitalization rates will rise, but if contact tracing, tracking, and isolation are seriously managed, they should be manageable.

Weekly Testing Report

We’ve also just received this week’s testing report.  As you’ll see, we’re inching up to the reopening goal of 15,000 tests per week.  Even with ongoing supply issues, particularly from the federal government, it seems clear that we currently have the capacity to do that many tests (via a combination of the state public health lab, commercial labs, and hospital labs).  With the new, relaxed threshold for testing, we should be able to hit that standard on a regular basis. 

Want to See Past Newsletters?

If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.  Also, if someone forwarded you this newsletter and you’d like to get it directly, you can sign up for it there.

AND FINALLY,

Here again are some resources that you will find useful:

If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource.  We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction. 

Best,

dembrow signature

Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23


email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301