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April 20, 2020
Dear Neighbors and Friends:
I hope that you and your loved ones are doing well, staying healthy, and looking out for your neighbors and friends.
I’m reserving the bulk of this newsletter to report on a briefing this afternoon in which legislators were presented with the first outline of a “Reopening” plan for Oregon, which will be finalized over the next two weeks.
In many ways, it is very similar to the national plan put forth by the Centers for Disease Control and the White House last week, called Opening Up America Again.
Given the overall political differences that our state leadership generally has with federal leadership, some of you may be surprised to learn that the Oregon proposal is likely going to look quite a lot like the White House/CDC proposal. What they have in common (for now at least, though politics could always intrude) is that they are both science- and medical-based, which I’m pleased to see.
At this point, both plans appear to be based in Dr. Anthony Fauci’s observation, “You don’t make the timeline. The virus makes the timeline.” In other words, reopening our economy and our communities can’t be a question of wishful thinking. It needs to be done cautiously and deliberately, careful not to open ourselves up to another round of infections from the outside, prepared to dial things back if the numbers start going south on us. This is going to have to be the “new normal” for a while yet.
You’ll find the details below.
We also received an update on testing, which I know many of you are concerned about. It’s obviously a national conversation. What are the roadblocks to increased testing? If we have increased capacity for testing, how should we be expanding the population of those who are being provided the tests? What does it mean that Oregon has one of the lowest rates of individuals testing positive for the disease in the country?
I’ll go into these questions in some detail in tomorrow’s newsletter. We’re about to hear about a new set of protocols to expand access to testing in Oregon, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. I’ll be getting more detailed answers to the above questions and others tomorrow morning.
I look forward to sharing this new information with you.
TODAY’S CORONAVIRUS AND CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE UPDATE
***Please notice that I’m now using an exponential scale for the Y axis on this graph. Doing it this way allows for a more realistic sense of the upward curves of these three data points (positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths).
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Positive Cases: OHA has reported that 46 additional Oregonians tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday, putting the total at 1,956.
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Total Tests: Today’s reported testing numbers reflect an increase of 1,007 test results from yesterday, bringing the total test results so far to 40,045.
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Ratio: Though the overall numbers are increasing, the percentage of positive results still remains just under 5%. That’s much lower than the national average (coming down a bit, but still just over 19%).
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Deaths: I’m sorry to report that the death of 1 additional Oregonian was reported yesterday, bringing the total number of deaths in Oregon to 75.
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Hospitalized: The number of Oregonians who have been hospitalized with symptoms, and who have also tested positive for the disease, is now at 465 This is an increase of 9 from yesterday.
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Other Hospital Information:
- Available ICU Beds: 326 (an increase of 3 from yesterday)
- Other Available Beds: 2,089 (an increase of 18 from yesterday)
- Patients Currently w CO VID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 303 (an increase of 25 from yesterday). Of those, 131 have already received a positive test back.
- ICU Patients w COVID-19 Symptoms (who may or may not have received a positive test result yet): 74 (8 more than yesterday)
- COVID-19 Patients Currently on Ventilators: 35 (2 fewer than yesterday).
- Available Ventilators: 797 (2 more than yesterday)
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Today’s National Numbers:
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PPE: Nothing new to report today.
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Other State Updates:
- The Legislature’s Emergency Board will be meeting this Thursday morning at 10 a.m. You can watch it and see materials here.
- So far, OHA has completed 94 consultations with Long-Term Care Facilities regarding invention prevention. These are preemptive consultations to make sure that correct procedures are being followed.
- The OHA has created a new online resource for senior housing facilities: COVID-19 Guidance for Multi-Unit Senior Housing
The Latest on “Reopening Oregon”
Needless to say, everyone is wondering when the restrictions that have been put in place to fight the spread of the pandemic will end. This is true in Oregon, and it’s true around the nation. Here in Oregon the Governor, medical advisors, the Emergency Coordination Center, agency heads, and others (with input from legislators, of course) are getting close to having a plan to roll out. This afternoon legislators were given a preview of many of its elements.
I’ll be sharing the full Oregon plan with you when it’s finalized (which will happen over the next two weeks), but here are some of the highlights of the current draft. As is the case with the federal plan, reopening will come in three phases:
Phase One. The first will begin once there is clear evidence that the numbers of individuals with reported symptoms and positive tests are in a sustained decline. The acceptable numbers will need to be sustained over a 14-day period.
We will also need to see that we have the ability to do broader testing and tracking, enough PPE, and plans in place to continue to protect those who are most vulnerable. This will include testing of people without symptoms who are dealing directly with vulnerable populations.
Once we are at that point, we will likely see an opening of childcare slots, some form of restaurant openings, perhaps taverns, and personal services like hairdressers. But be prepared: they will be opening under very different circumstances than existed before the pandemic hit. In these work settings, there will be requirements for masking and other protection, spacing out of tables, and other steps to assure social distancing during this first phase. As I mentioned last week, the Governor has convened groups of representatives of these different industries to meet with medical professionals to come up with new guidelines before Phase 1 begins.
Most people will still be expected to work remotely during this phase. There will likely be an expectation, if not a requirement, for widespread wearing of masks when outdoors. Travel will continue to be limited, as we don’t want to see region-to-region or state-to-state infections. Large gatherings will continue to be prohibited because of the risk of infection, and plans for mass transit will need to be developed that will keep people distanced. Gyms will remain closed because of the ways that the virus spreads via heavy breathing in closed areas.
At this point, it seems unlikely that Phase One would begin in Oregon prior to the second week of May (but see a couple of caveats below).
Phase Two. If a state or region has implemented Phase One and has not seen a rebound of infections over the subsequent two weeks, under the federal plan (and likely the Oregon plan), they can then move to Phase Two, which relaxes some of the restrictions further. Non-essential travel will resume, and schools and gyms can open up again. If all goes well, this could happen by the end of May.
Phase Three. Again, if a state or region has had 14 days of success with Phase Two, they’ll be able to move to Phase Three, which will allow us to increase the numbers for social gathering, remove some of the spacing restrictions on bars and restaurants, and allow visits to nursing homes and other care facilities. Again, if all goes well, I suspect we could be there by mid-June.
Even under Phase Three, however, we will have to remain careful. Until we have effective treatment and ultimately vaccination for the disease, we cannot expect to return fully to “business as usual.”
And at every phase, we’ll need to be prepared to return to a more restrictive form of social distancing if we see infections start to rise.
Does Geography Matter? The Governor has made it clear that her intention is to provide room for local variability in terms of the rollout of the reopening. Some regions may hit the necessary targets more quickly than others. If their local health authorities, hospitals, and elected leaders in areas with few to no infections can demonstrate capacity for handling the reopening, it may be possible for them to go more quickly than others where the risk is higher. The details of this definitely still need to be worked out.
How About Non-Essential Medical Procedures? A decision is going to be made very soon about making it possible for necessary but non-emergency medical procedures to resume, perhaps even before the beginning of Phase One. Here too we are likely to see some regional variability, with some of the rural hospitals and clinics in areas with few or no infections starting up sooner. Having adequate supplies of Personal Protective Equipment is going to be a key criterion here. But we should know more soon. Stay tuned.
Plans for Contact Tracing
We also heard more about steps to improve our ability to test, trace, and track carriers of the disease. The OHA will be presenting a proposal tomorrow to the Governor and her Medical Advisory Panel for a contact tracing program for this state.
The OHA and local public health authorities are already doing some follow-up contacts (telephone and email) with those who’ve tested positive for the disease. According to the OHA, there are currently dozens of people starting to do this work. They want to find out how the individuals are doing, verify their demographics, and get a better sense of how they might have contracted the disease. Over the next few weeks, around 600 people will be hired to take this questioning to the next level—to track those with whom the affected individuals might have had contact and test them. With the wider deployment of more rapid testing, this tracing, tracking, and subsequent testing will become easier and more effective.
Those doing this work will be working directly under the direction of local and regional public health authorities, with training and guidelines provided by the OHA. Many of them will be recruited from the ranks of current medical professionals. It’s likely that much of the initial focus will be on those with close contact to people living in vulnerable care settings.
Federal Small Business EIDL Loans Also Out of Money
You may remember that one of the bright spots in the CARES Act was the “Economic Injury Disaster Loan,” a $10,000 loan that automatically became a grant. It was designed to be a quick lifeline for those with very small businesses, helping them pay upfront rent and other fixed costs as well as support employees in the short run.
Unfortunately, like the Paycheck Protection loan program, it is out of money and has stopped taking new applications. I’m not sure at this point if funding for it is included in the new federal legislation being finalized.
What I didn’t realize until this morning (when a constituent shared his sad experience) is that due to high demand, within a week of its inception the program was changed so that a business would only be eligible for $1000 for each employee. So for very small businesses, the amount could be much less than $10K (in his case it was $3K because he his business just has three employees).
You can read more about this problem here. The SBA web page for the program, by the way, still makes no mention of the added per-employee restriction. Let’s hope this is something that Congress can fix quickly.
Want to See Past Newsletters?
If there was COVID-related information in a past newsletter that you want to go back to, but find you’ve deleted it, you can always go to my legislative website (www.senatordembrow.com), click on “News and Information,” and you’ll find them all there.
AND FINALLY,
Here again are some resources that you will find useful:
If the above links are not providing you with answers to your questions or directing you to the help that you need, please consider me and my office to be a resource. We’ll do our best to assist you or steer you in the right direction.
Best,
 Senator Michael Dembrow
District 23
email: Sen.MichaelDembrow@oregonlegislature.gov
web: www.senatordembrow.com
phone: 503-986-1723
mail: 900 Court St NE, S-407, Salem, OR, 97301
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