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 by Steven Koczak, PhD, Research Specialist
For a long time, “good jobs” that didn’t require a college degree and could be entered into with little to no relevant work experience — think of factory workers in the mid-20th century — defined the American job market. Those jobs started to recede in the 1970s due to a combination of factors, including increased automation and offshoring.
This, in turn, led to “job polarization”: a split in the labor market between high-paying jobs that required a bachelor’s degree (or higher) and low-paying jobs that required minimal education. Data suggested that the number of “good jobs” in the middle of the spectrum were being squeezed out, both nationally and in New York State.
But, maybe, job polarization isn’t destiny. In September 2024, the New York State Department of Labor (NYSDOL) published a report on “Opportunity Occupations” in New York. “Opportunity Occupations” are jobs that:
- Pay good wages (above the state median)
- Do not require a bachelor’s degree
- Are projected to grow over the next several years
The 2024 report was able to show that, despite the reality of job polarization, “good jobs” (akin to those of the past) still existed.
In September 2025, NYSDOL published a mobility report that reviewed existing pathways to advance from lower-wage occupations into Opportunity Occupations. The report found that it is possible to climb the professional ladder without getting a four-year college degree. This article summarizes the key findings of our recent report.
Similarity Scores
We used relatedness metrics created for the federal government’s O*NET occupational database to develop “similarity scores” for nearly 700 job titles across New York State’s 10 labor market regions. Our similarity scores ranged from 0 to 100 with the following interpretations:
- 100 is the best pairing (100% similarity); any occupation should have a similarity score of 100 with itself
- A score of 0 means the two occupations in the pairing had virtually nothing in common
We then considered the direction of the transition. An occupation a person starts with is called the “origin occupation” and the occupation they could move into is the “destination occupation.” Then, we also looked at the potential salary change one might experience by switching from any given origin occupation to destination occupation.
In Transition
Out of all of the potential occupational transitions, we identified “top transitions,” defined as those occupational transitions that met all of the following criteria:
- The two occupations had a similarity score of 80+
- Median wage increased by at least 10%
- The destination occupation is an Opportunity Occupation
- The destination occupation had at least 5,000 jobs in New York State
- The statewide median wage of the origin occupation was less than $54,276 (the statewide median wage used for the Opportunity Occupations report)
All employment and wage data were from 2020, in order to match our earlier Opportunity Occupations report. We focused our analysis on these “top transitions.”
Principal Findings
We found statewide data for the 3,927 top transitions, which involved 247 distinct origin titles and 65 distinct destination titles. In addition, over 99% of statewide employment in low-wage occupations was found within a top transition and, therefore, was within reach of an Opportunity Occupation.
The most frequently tallied educational pairing in top transitions was high school only for both occupations. The second highest pairing was no formal educational requirement at all in the origin occupation and high school in the destination occupation.
The origin occupation with the most jobs was “Home Health and Personal Care Aide” (510,870), while “Maintenance and Repair Workers, General” was included in the highest number of transitions.
The destination occupation with the highest employment rate was “First-Line Supervisor of Office and Administrative Support Workers” (105,800 jobs), followed by “Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products” (71,830 jobs) and “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers” (65,890 jobs). In terms of number of transitions, the top destination occupation was “First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers.”
Four top transitions achieved the highest possible similarity score of 100:
- “Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators & Tenders, Metal & Plastic” to “Industrial Machinery Mechanics”
- “Physical Therapist Aides” to “Physical Therapist Assistants”
- “Helpers--Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters” to “Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters”
- “Structural Metal Fabricators & Fitters” to “Sheet Metal Workers”
It’s worth noting that most of the top transitions with the highest similarity scores were within the same occupational group, most commonly one of the skilled trades (e.g., apprentice or assistant to journeyman).
There were 16 transitions that had a similarity score of just 80. These include “Helpers—Carpenters” to “Telecoms. Equip. Installers & Repairers, Except Line Installers” and “Retail Salespersons” to both “First-Line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers” and “Property, Real Estate, & Community Assn. Managers.”
Knowledge, Skills and Abilities
We also excerpted certain attributes needed for the various occupations involved in top transitions. Here, these sorts of attributes are called “knowledge, skills and abilities” (or KSAs).
To analyze KSAs for our occupations of interest, we adapted O*NET’s KSA “level” and “importance” ratings. These ratings measure how important a given KSA is to a given occupation and the level of competency required for that KSA (basically, how good at it someone had to be at a given KSA to do that particular job). We then set thresholds to identify “top” KSAs in the top transitions. Then, we analyzed the data we had to see what the top KSAs in top transitions actually were.
The top KSAs among destination occupations were:
- Customer and Personal Service (knowledge)
- Active Listening (skills)
- Oral Expression (abilities)
- Oral Comprehension (ability)
- Speaking (skill)
- Administration and Management (knowledge)
- English Language (knowledge)
- Sales and Marketing (Knowledge)
- Written Comprehension (ability)
- Monitoring (skill)
- Active Listening (skill)
Conclusions
Job polarization is a real thing, but, in two successive reports now, we’ve found that New York State’s labor market provides significant opportunities for low-wage workers to advance into Opportunity Occupations. In the near future, we plan to release a detailed dashboard with regional transition data that will help people plot their own path into Opportunity Occupations.
To learn more about moving from lower-wage occupations into Opportunity Occupations, see our September 2025 report: The Many Paths Forward.
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“Healthcare occupations are projected to account for a quarter of all jobs created in the Capital Region through 2032.”
by Kevin Alexander, Labor Market Analyst, Capital Region
The healthcare and social assistance (H&SA) sector accounted for more than 76,000 private sector jobs in the Capital Region in 2024, per the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Representing 18% of all private sector employment in the region, H&SA was the area’s largest private sector employer. This article considers the important contributions the H&SA sector makes to the Capital Region’s economy.
Growth Trends
QCEW data indicate the job count in the Capital Region’s H&SA sector increased every year from 2006 to 2018. Over that timeframe, the sector added nearly 13,500 jobs, expanding at a rate of over 20%. After peaking at 79,540 in 2018, H&SA employment declined by more than 8,000 through 2022. Since then, sector employment rebounded by more than 4,500 to 76,050 in 2024, but has yet to return to its 2018 peak.
Sector Drivers
One distinguishing characteristic of the H&SA sector (and educational services) is that its job growth is driven more by changing demographics than by fluctuations in the business cycle. For example, our growing elderly population requires care during both times of economic expansion and contraction. While the region’s total job count fell during the Great Recession, employment in the H&SA sector continued to expand, adding 2,600 jobs between 2008-2011.
Additionally, the H&SA sector benefits from technological innovation. Recent advancements have allowed hospitals and outpatient facilities to expand the types of surgeries they perform and shorten both procedure and recovery times.
Another factor driving growth during the 2010s was the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion, which New York State adopted in 2014. This program expanded healthcare coverage to millions of additional New Yorkers, thereby creating still more opportunities in this already large and vibrant segment of the labor market.
Healthcare in 2024
Over time, the ambulatory health care services subsector — which includes home health care, primary and specialized physician offices, medical labs and other outpatient facilities — has overtaken hospitals as the largest subsector within the H&SA sector. Technology and specialization have allowed medical practitioners to perform more procedures outside of traditional hospital settings. In turn, dozens of freestanding outpatient and specialty practices continue to be built throughout the Capital Region. In 2024, the ambulatory health care services subsector employed 25,500, compared to 20,100 jobs at private sector hospitals in the region.
Though the H&SA sector has not regained its 2018 peak employment level, the story remains one of growth. Between 2023 and 2024, H&SA added the second most jobs — 2,700, or 3.7% — of any local sector. By comparison, the region’s total private sector job count grew by 5,900, or 1.4%. Put another way, nearly half of the private sector job gains registered in the Capital Region in 2023-24 were due to the H&SA sector.
Wages paid in healthcare occupations vary widely. The sector’s largest statewide occupation was Home Health and Personal Care Aide, which earned a median wage of $38,200 in the Capital Region, while Registered Nurses earned $94,900.
At the other end of the pay scale were occupations requiring extensive education and training — Family Physicians ($219,800), Psychiatrists ($201,500) and General Internal Medicine Physicians ($196,300). In total, the region’s H&SA sector paid out $4.8 billion in wages in 2024, contributing 16.5% of all private sector wages paid in the Capital Region.
Looking Ahead
Employment in the H&SA sector is expected to continue growing. Despite a robust demand for talent, employers are experiencing sustained difficulty in filling positions. Hospitals and medical offices are commonly among the top employers hiring in the Capital Region. As of the 2020 Census, nearly one out of every five Capital Region residents is aged 65 or older. In addition, the census estimates the region’s largest cohort, ages 45-64, makes up 27% of the region’s population. The demand for the services is there and isn’t going away anytime soon.
Long-term industry projections estimate regional employment in the H&SA sector will grow by 25.1% between 2022 and 2032. Put another way, this is nearly 2.5 times faster than all industries in the Capital Region (+10.1%).
Healthcare occupations are projected to be among the fastest-growing job titles in the Capital Region in 2022-32. Some specific titles and their projected growth rates include:
- Nurse Practitioners, +63.2%
- Physician Assistants, +46.7%
- Physical Therapist Assistants, +42.4%
- Medical and Health Services Managers, +42.4%
In total, the healthcare practitioners and technical occupational group (SOC Group 29) is projected to add 8,700 jobs by 2032, while healthcare support occupations (SOC Group 31) could expand by another 6,900 jobs. Together, healthcare occupations are projected to account for a quarter of all jobs created in the Capital Region through 2032.
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 In August 2025, New York State’s seasonally adjusted private sector job count decreased over the month by 13,300, or 0.2%, to 8,467,100. In addition, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.0 in August 2025, while New York’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate decreased from 60.9% to 60.8%.
Capital
Over the past year, the private sector job count in the Capital Region rose by 2,700, or 0.6%, to 447,600 in August 2025. Employment gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+3,300)
- professional and business services (+1,200)
Over-the-year job losses were largest in the following sectors:
- trade, transportation and utilities (-700)
- financial activities (-400)
- information (-400)
- leisure and hospitality (-200)
Central NY
The number of private sector jobs in the Syracuse metro area increased over the past year by 6,000, or 2.3%, to 263,400 in August 2025. Job gains were largest in these sectors:
- education and health services (+2,500)
- leisure and hospitality (+2,300)
- professional and business services (+900)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+700)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+400)
The largest job losses were in the following sectors:
- manufacturing (-500)
- financial activities (-300)
Finger Lakes
From August 2024 to August 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Rochester metro area increased by 4,000, or 0.9%, to 443,700. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+2,100)
- professional and business services (+1,100)
- leisure and hospitality (+700)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+500)
- other services (+400)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+200)
Over-the-year job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- manufacturing (-500)
- financial activities (-300)
- information (-200)
Hudson Valley
Over the past year, the number of private sector jobs in the Hudson Valley grew by 11,300, or 1.4%, to 843,100 in August 2025. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+7,500)
- leisure and hospitality (+1,900)
- other services (+800)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+800)
- financial activities (+600)
- professional and business services (+400)
- manufacturing (+300)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- information (-800)
- natural resources, mining and construction (-200)
Long Island
From August 2024 to August 2025, private sector jobs on Long Island increased by 4,300, or 0.4%, to 1,185,000. The following sectors experienced employment gains:
- education and health services (+14,600)
- other services (+1,300)
- professional and business services (+800)
Over-the-year job losses were largest in the following sectors:
- natural resources, mining and construction (-4,900)
- financial activities (-2,800)
- leisure and hospitality (-2,800)
- trade, transportation and utilities (-900)
- information (-600)
Mohawk Valley
For the 12-month period ending August 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Mohawk Valley region increased by 1,600, or 1.1%, to 143,600. The following sectors had the largest over-the-year employment gains:
- education and health services (+1,600)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+400)
- leisure and hospitality (+200)
Over-the-year job losses were centered in the following sectors:
- manufacturing (-500)
- other services (-200)
New York City
New York City’s private sector job count rose over the past year by 82,300, or 2.0%, to 4,240,800 in August 2025. Job gains were in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+76,800)
- information (+10,700)
- leisure and hospitality (+7,300)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+6,200)
- other services (+1,800)
The largest job losses were in the following sectors:
- natural resources, mining and construction (-7,900)
- professional and business services (-6,600)
- financial activities (-5,900)
North Country
The number of private sector jobs in the North Country region decreased over the past year by 1,300, or 1.2%, to 109,700 in August 2025. Employment gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+200)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+200)
Job losses were greatest in the following sectors:
- trade, transportation and utilities (-800)
- manufacturing (-300)
- other services (-200)
Southern Tier
For the 12-month period ending August 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Southern Tier region increased by 2,000, or 1.0%, to 211,200. Employment gains were largest in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+2,500)
- leisure and hospitality (+900)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+200)
Over-the-year job losses were largest in the following sectors:
- manufacturing (-1,100)
- trade, transportation and utilities (-500)
Western NY
Over the past 12 months, the number of private sector jobs in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro area rose by 4,900, or 1.1%, to 471,300 in August 2025. Over-the-year job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+4,400)
- leisure and hospitality (+1,000)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,000)
- other services (+300)
These sectors experienced the largest over-the-year employment losses:
- manufacturing (-800)
- natural resources, mining and construction (-400)
- professional and business services (-300)
- financial activities (-200)
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