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 “Data revisions are how the government balances timeliness and accuracy.”
Jed Kolko, former Under Secretary for Economic Affairs,
U.S. Department of Commerce
by Elena Volovelsky, NYC Labor Market Analyst and Steven Koczak, PhD, Research Specialist
It’s an annual rite this time of year for labor analysts and statisticians around the country. Each year, staff at the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and state departments of labor across the U.S. compile and publish newly revised data for several closely watched labor market indicators, including employment by industry (Current Employment Statistics, or CES) and labor force (Local Area Unemployment Statistics, or LAUS). This annual undertaking — known as “benchmarking” — has the overarching goal of aligning various data sources to help produce the most up-to-date and accurate monthly labor statistics.
Timeliness vs. Accuracy: The Eternal Conflict
To gather accurate raw data takes time and money, neither of which is unlimited. And neither businesses, nor policymakers nor the public can afford to wait for finalized data to make decisions. To strike a balance between timeliness and accuracy, statistical agencies release the best available estimates as quickly as possible, and then regularly update and correct these estimates, according to a set schedule and through a transparent process.
These regular revisions include additional or corrected information — for example, including information from employers who responded late to the surveys. Revisions also bring together different data sources that weren’t available when the first estimates came out. For example:
- One input used to calibrate the statistical model that calculates labor force data, including unemployment rates, is the latest available population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is done since this information presents a more complete count of people and their economic conditions. However, while these population data are utilized by the LAUS program to generate monthly estimates, they are only updated on an annual basis.
- Initial monthly employment estimates from the CES program are based on employer surveys. At the end of each year, these estimates are compared against the state’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which are administrative records from the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program. QCEW data lag the statistical surveys by several months and are released only quarterly, but are far more complete than any survey and include close to 97% of all workers.
- Every few years, occupational and industry definitions are updated as the economy changes. Jobs and industries that didn’t exist before need to be added to the data. For example, the job title “data scientist” was added in 2018 and “media streaming, social networks, and content providers” was recognized as an industry in 2022.
- Metro area delineations are updated every 10 years with the release of new Census data. In New York State, the new Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh metro area was formed from Orange and Dutchess counties, while the Rochester metro area lost Yates County. Changes like these are needed to avoid merging current data into older geographic and demographic categories that no longer fit the realities of where people live, work and spend.
Building & Maintaining Trust
When already-published employment statistics are revised, the public needs to have trust in both how the revision process is conducted and the reasons for undertaking the revisions in the first place. Here are some different ways that New York State’s labor analysts and statisticians ensure that data revisions are made in a trustworthy manner:
- Revision methods are determined well in advance, based on best available practices, and with documentation that’s easily accessible. The BLS — the only government agency that can alter how labor statistics are calculated for the nation and individual states — publishes all methodologies on its website and summarizes any changes through a dedicated webpage.
- Data revisions are conducted on a set schedule, which is published far in advance.
- A dedicated team of New York labor market analysts is available to walk members of the public and other stakeholder groups through what has changed and how the changes impact the region’s economy.
A Look in the Weeds
Let’s take a closer look at how revisions are made to the two best-known labor series — employment by industry and labor force — in New York State.
CES data estimates are based on a monthly survey of about 15,400 employers operating within the state. This gives us a monthly estimate of jobs in industries ranging from apparel manufacturing to software development. In turn, job estimates are made for various levels of geography, including statewide, metro areas (MSAs) and counties outside of MSAs (“minor counties”).
During benchmarking, initial survey-based job estimates are revised using QCEW records. These numbers are also calibrated using Census estimates of the number of businesses that came into existence (business “births”) or that exited the market (business “deaths”). Other adjustments are made to account for workers not covered by UI.
The effect of this year’s CES benchmarking process was positive for New York. The state’s over-the-year gain in nonfarm jobs in 2023-24 rose from 146,700 to 152,500, a net gain of 5,800. For the latest benchmarking round, jobs data were revised back to May 2021.
The LAUS statistical model is used to calculate New York’s labor force and unemployment levels. It is based, in part, on the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of state residents, augmented with inputs from other data sources, such as UI claims, to compensate for its limited sample size. LAUS data include the unemployment rate, total labor force and other measures of the State’s resident population.
During annual benchmarking, the BLS reviews the LAUS model for both accuracy and potential improvements. Once this is completed, the figures are updated accordingly. After the latest round of benchmarking, the state’s annual unemployment rate in 2023 dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, while 2024’s rate held steady at 4.3%. LAUS data were revised back to 2016 this year.
Data Quality Concerns
While benchmarking revisions are transparent and routine, other external factors may potentially impact the reliability of these numbers. One ongoing issue is insufficient or reduced survey funding. This causes statistical agencies to underinvest in innovation, cut back on data products, and/or reduce the reliability of data. In 2024, for instance, the BLS considered reducing the already-limited sample size for the CPS. In New York State, the sample size is only 3,100 households and further reducing it would make that data less reliable and the annual revisions more pronounced.
In addition, technological advancements in data mining as well as greater availability of data from private commercial sources can make it easier to reveal confidential information. Fears about data confidentiality could hurt survey response rates which, in turn, hurts the data quality, and makes the annual revisions more volatile. The BLS notes that: “Declining response rates are a growing concern for the CPS as well as many other surveys.”
Finally, many factors, including mistrust of governmental statistics, can lead to lackluster communication and insufficient user feedback. As the economy and society continue to change, there need to be better mechanisms for collecting and analyzing which statistical products are most used and valued and what improvements are necessary.
Conclusions
Benchmarking is a necessary and routine annual process that improves the accuracy and integrity of economic data. Some years the numbers are revised up, some years they go down, but the goal is always the same: to ensure that the statistics are more accurate and give a better, more detailed picture of New York State’s labor market and the overall economy.
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“There are realistic reasons to think that opportunity occupations may live up to their name.”
by Elena Volovelsky, Labor Market Analyst, New York City Region
Is the middle of the labor market “hollowing out” or even vanishing? For generations of Americans, middle-skill jobs have served as a springboard into the middle class. Occupations such as machinists, administrative assistants, technical salespersons, computer technicians, loan officers and many others have constituted the backbone of America’s workforce.
Job Polarization
However, the share of jobs in “middle-skill” occupations — those requiring more education and training than a high school diploma but less than a four-year college degree — has shrunk over the past several decades. In contrast, the shares of both high-skill and low-skill jobs have grown. This phenomenon has been increasingly referred to as “job polarization.”
Occupational Categories
In their 2007 research report, “America's Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs,” economists Harry Holzer and Robert Lerman sorted job titles into three broad, skill-based occupational categories:
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High-skill occupations: Professional, technical, and managerial fields
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Low-skill occupations: Service and agricultural fields
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Middle-skill occupations: Clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving fields
Applying Holzer and Lerman’s methodology to New York State employment data, it’s clear that job polarization occurred here as well. From 2003 to 2022, the share of middle-skill workers in the state decreased by 10.5 percentage points, while the shares of low-skill and high-skill occupations went up by 3.4 and 7.1 percentage points, respectively.
Enter Opportunity Occupations
With an apparent decline of middle-skill job opportunities, researchers at several Federal Reserve Banks have proposed the concept of “opportunity occupations.” These are occupations that require less than a bachelor’s degree and pay above the annual median wage (the national median when the U.S. is being considered, and a regional median when a particular region is being analyzed).
In 2024, researchers at the New York State Department of Labor (NYSDOL) mimicked the Federal Reserve research for New York State and its regions, and combined the results with New York’s long-term occupational projections to help further refine opportunity occupations. Our reasoning behind this was that an occupation with negative or no projected growth was unlikely to provide much “opportunity” to anyone. This was also done to further divide opportunity occupations into “fast-growing” and “slower growing.”
“Fast-growing” opportunity occupations are those projected to grow faster than the state economy, while “slower growing” occupations have positive growth rates, but are increasing at a slower rate than the region as a whole. NYSDOL’s research resulted in a report (with more reports coming) and a dashboard for jobseekers, employment counselors, employers and anyone else who might find this useful or who might be curious about the state of the job market.
Opportunity Occupations in NYC
New York City has the highest degree of job polarization of any region in the state. The 20 largest occupations in terms of job count account for more than one-third of the city’s total employment (35.5%). Most of the top 20 occupations are either low-skill, low-wage or high-skill, high-wage titles.
Among the top 20 occupations:
- 12 require a high school diploma or less for entry
- 8 require a bachelor’s degree or higher
- 7 of the 8 “high-skill” jobs have median wages of over $100,000
- 10 of the 12 “low-skill” jobs pay less than the region’s overall median annual wage ($63,400)
There are 112 opportunity occupations in New York City, of which 33 are “fast-growing” and 79 are “slower growing.” Opportunity occupations in New York City represent 12.0% of total city employment. Reflecting the city’s job polarization, this was a lower percentage than every other labor market region in the state and was also below the statewide average of 15.2%.
However, opportunity occupations can still be a viable source of employment for city residents, with 106,000 new jobs forecast over a ten-year period. These jobs represent a broad range of fields, including electricians, carpenters, advertising sales agents, flight attendants, food service managers and audio/video technicians. The lowest-paid opportunity occupation in the city (First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers) pays a median wage of around $64,000 per year. The highest-paid (Crane and Tower Operators) pays a median wage of over $147,000 a year. By way of education typically required for entry, both require nothing more than a high school diploma or equivalent.
Of the “fast-growing” occupations, five are expected to increase at more than twice the growth rate of the overall job market, with another nine titles surpassing the rate of growth by 10 percentage points or more. Twelve opportunity occupations represent supervisory positions, drawing a clear pathway for career growth from the lower-wage, entry-level positions to the higher-paid supervisory and managerial ones.
Concluding Thoughts
Job polarization has made it harder for those without a four-year college degree to find decent-paying jobs and to traverse pathways to career growth. Opportunity occupations pay well, have relatively low educational barriers to entry, and are projected to be in-demand. They therefore may afford increased economic mobility to these workers.
By identifying and promoting opportunity occupations, we hope to help job seekers achieve better labor market outcomes, as well as assist policymakers, educators, and workforce development professionals in their efforts to bridge skills gaps, reduce income inequality, and foster economic growth. There are realistic reasons to think that opportunity occupations may live up to their name. To explore opportunity occupations in more detail, see the NYSDOL website.
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 In January 2025, New York State’s seasonally adjusted private sector job count increased over the month by 14,500, or 0.2%, to 8,466,400. In addition, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in January 2025, while New York’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate dipped from 60.9% to 60.8%.
Capital
Over the past year, the private sector job count in the Capital Region rose by 4,500, or 1.1%, to 430,700 in January 2025. Employment gains occurred in the following sectors:
- professional and business services (+2,000)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,200)
- leisure and hospitality (+1,100)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+900)
- other services (+500)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- information (-500)
- education and health services (-400)
- manufacturing (-300)
Central NY
The number of private sector jobs in the Syracuse metro area increased over the past year by 6,000, or 2.4%, to 253,200 in January 2025. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,700)
- education and health services (+1,600)
- professional and business services (+1,600)
- leisure and hospitality (+1,000)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+700)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- financial activities (-300)
- information (-300)
- manufacturing (-200)
Finger Lakes
From January 2024 to January 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Rochester metro area rose by 6,700, or 1.6%, to 434,900. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+4,600)
- leisure and hospitality (+2,000)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+700)
- professional and business services (+600)
Over-the-year job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- information (-500)
- trade, transportation and utilities (-300)
- manufacturing (-200)
- other services (-200)
Hudson Valley
Over the past year, the number of private sector jobs in the Hudson Valley grew by 15,200, or 1.9%, to 819,000 in January 2025. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+5,700)
- leisure and hospitality (+3,500)
- professional and business services (+2,600)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+2,500)
- financial activities (+1,300)
- other services (+1,200)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- natural resources, mining and construction (-1,000)
- information (-800)
Long Island
For the year ending January 2025, private sector jobs on Long Island increased by 20,500, or 1.8%, to 1,146,700. Job gains were largest in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+10,200)
- leisure and hospitality (+5,400)
- other services (+1,700)
- professional and business services (+1,700)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,400)
- manufacturing (+1,000)
Over-the-year job losses occurred in the following sector:
Mohawk Valley
For the 12-month period ending January 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Mohawk Valley region increased by 100, or 0.1%, to 138,700. The following sectors had the largest over-the-year employment gains:
- education and health services (+500)
- leisure and hospitality (+200)
Over-the-year job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- manufacturing (-500)
- natural resources, mining and construction (-200)
New York City
New York City’s private sector job count rose over the past year by 114,300, or 2.8%, to 4,200,300 in January 2025. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+87,100)
- professional and business services (+15,200)
- financial activities (+8,800)
- information (+3,700)
- leisure and hospitality (+2,000)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,600)
- other services (+1,300)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- natural resources, mining and construction (-4,700)
- manufacturing (-700)
North Country
The number of private sector jobs in the North Country region rose over the past year by 1,000, or 1.0%, to 104,100 in January 2025. Over-the-year job gains were largest in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+600)
- leisure and hospitality (+600)
Employment losses were centered in the following sector:
- natural resources, mining and construction (-200)
Southern Tier
For the 12-month period ending January 2025, the number of private sector jobs in the Southern Tier region increased by 2,200, or 1.1%, to 204,800. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- education and health services (+1,800)
- leisure and hospitality (+700)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+400)
- other services (+200)
- professional and business services (+200)
The largest job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- trade, transportation and utilities (-500)
- information (-400)
- manufacturing (-300)
Western NY
Over the past 12 months, the private sector job count in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga metro area rose by 8,600, or 1.9%, to 461,200 in January 2025. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- leisure and hospitality (+3,900)
- education and health services (+3,700)
- trade, transportation and utilities (+1,300)
- natural resources, mining and construction (+700)
- professional and business services (+500)
The following sectors experienced over-the-year job losses:
- financial activities (-1,300)
- manufacturing (-200)
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