January 2025 Issue of the Employment in New York State Newsletter

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“Halfway through the 2020s, technological advances that may have seemed unfathomable just a few years ago are now commonplace.” 

Morgan Stanley, 2024

by Steven Koczak, PhD, Research Specialist

“Technology” can refer to anything humans create to help manipulate the world around us. Human history, in a broad sense (e.g., “the iron age”) or in a narrower sense (e.g., how props such as cars or telephones can indicate the period in which a movie is set) can often be defined and divided by the technologies we use.

A recent report from financial firm Morgan Stanley identifies certain technologies as having that kind of potential to define the next ten years or so, most of which are tied to generative artificial intelligence (AI). Some of these technologies have a notable presence in New York State and appear to already be having a positive effect on our state’s economy. Here, we discuss some of these potentially defining technologies identified in the Morgan Stanley report and their presence in New York State.

Humanoid Robots & Multi-Earning Agents

“Humanoid robots,” as the name implies, are AI-powered robots modeled after humans and possessing some of our physical capabilities. Moreover, they are being utilized in a wide range of applications. As noted by a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “next-generation robots are popping up in public spaces — from retail stores to museums — cleaning, cooking and even conversing with humans.”

These innovative machines are already impacting life in New York State. For example, a spa in New York City offers massages performed by robotic arms that do the work faster than humans. An art gallery in New York City, in the summer of 2024, sold a painting done by an AI-powered robot for a price of $1 million. Researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy are at the forefront of designing artificial intelligence and artificial eyesight for humanoid robots of the future.

“Multi-earning agents” are AI-driven tools to enhance the productivity of individuals with multiple jobs or complex businesses with many moving parts. About 5% of the U.S. population work more than one job or have multiple earnings streams. Morgan Stanley views the growth of multiple jobholding as an “evolution of the gig economy and centers on platforms that offer avenues to earn money outside of traditional employment streams, including social media, gaming, shared mobility and vacation rentals.” Their report indicates that multi-earners who use generative AI tools make an additional $8.50 per hour compared to those who do not — an earnings boost of 21%.

Start-up company Emergence AI, which maintains one of its three central offices in Manhattan, is a leading innovator in this area. The firm’s main focus is on automating tasks such as completing forms, searching for products on retail websites, and finding content on streaming services such as Netflix.

To analyze the labor market impacts of such potentially defining technologies, researchers often group together various technology-centric industries to form an informal cluster commonly referred to as “the high-tech sector.” As suggested in an article on New York’s high-tech economy from the April 2023 issue of this newsletter, the data suggest that certain high-tech corridors in New York State should be in the same conversations as Silicon Valley.

Obesity Drugs & AI-Assisted Fertility

The complex phenomenon known as obesity, which has been described as an “epidemic,” affected one in eight people in the world in 2022, according to the World Health Organization. In response to this growing health crisis, many drug companies are developing better medicines to help combat it.

In December 2023, the Manhattan-based drug company Pfizer announced promising results regarding the efficacy of its oral weight loss medication called “danuglipron.” However, there was a high rate of discontinuation with the twice-daily pill due to negative side effects. A clinical trial of a once-daily formulation — which Pfizer believes will present less side effects — began in August 2024 and another was expected to commence in December 2024.

Fertility clinics are using AI technologies to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of fertility treatments like in vitro fertilization (IVF). For example, AI can improve embryo selection in IVF treatments. In fact, some fertility clinics in New York City had started to use AI-assisted techniques as of 2023. Further, researchers at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City are pioneering AI tools to assess embryo quality.

Negative Power Prices & Nuclear Power Renaissance

Negative power prices occur when renewable energy sources (e.g., solar) produce more energy than is consumed within a given area. In theory, this means power consumers could turn into part-time power producers, returning excess power to the grid. Making this practical, however, requires battery technology that can store the extra energy until it is actually needed.

The work of developing and implementing such technology is well underway in New York State. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority has a program designed to store six gigawatts of power in New York — which represents at least 20% of the state’s peak electricity load — by 2030.

Further, “clean energy journalism” outfit Canary Media has highlighted the work of Brooklyn-based NineDot Energy to establish “community-scale battery storage.” This refers to the use of many smaller-scale batteries to form a community-wide storage network. These batteries can vary in size (from the size of a refrigerator to the size of a storage unit or shipping container) but, in all cases, are smaller than a power plant.

Nuclear power, though occasionally controversial, also has a role to play. According to the Morgan Stanley report, the power needs of AI could draw $1.5 trillion in investments through 2050, and the share of global energy supply provided by nuclear power could increase from 10% to 17% over the next decade.

New York State appears well-positioned to play a role in this nuclear renaissance. According to New York State’s Radiological Emergency Preparedness program, the state has four “fixed site nuclear power plants” and two Naval nuclear facilities. Advocacy group Nuclear New York has indicated that nuclear power provides about 20% of our electricity and 42% of our carbon-free power. They go on to state that this output is down from our peak, and therefore presumably is under our potential.

Conclusion

Morgan Stanley’s report about the potentially defining technologies of the next decade suggests that New York State will have a prominent role to play in several of them. That prominent role is already reflected in the business examples outlined above.  

Most of these potentially defining technologies are related to generative AI in one way or another. We note that New York State began “The Empire AI Consortium,” a public-private partnership to promote innovation in AI, in October 2024.

Even if Morgan Stanley’s predictions about these particular technologies being defining for the next decade prove inaccurate, these technologies — and New York’s role in advancing them — are here to stay.

“Older workers are found throughout Long Island’s economy.”

by Shital Patel, Labor Market Analyst, Long Island Region

Like much of the U.S., Long Island’s population is aging. The region faces the exit of over 120,000 workers in the years to come, in large part due to the aging of the baby boom generation, which refers to people born between 1946 and 1964.

By 2030, almost 700,000 Long Islanders will be aged 65 or older, representing nearly one in four (23.8%) people in the region. This is higher than both the comparable figures for New York State (21.1%) and the U.S. (19.7%).

The region’s workforce is aging as well. Per Census Bureau data, in 2023, 28.0% of Long Island jobs were held by people aged 55 and older — almost double 2001’s level of 14.7%. The share of workers aged 65 and older also increased, from 3.9% in 2001 to 9.3% in 2023.

More Older Adults Working

Data from the Current Population Survey indicate the share of older adults working in the U.S. — known as the employment-population (emp-pop) ratio — has been steadily increasing over the past four decades. From a low of 10.0% in 1985 to a peak of 20.1% in 2020, the nation’s emp-pop ratio for workers aged 65 and older has more than doubled.

Analysts cite several reasons for the long-term increase in seniors’ emp-pop ratio. One is the gradual increase in retirement age to receive full Social Security retirement benefits from 65 to 67. As a result, many people are choosing to work longer to maximize their benefits. In addition, the shift away from traditional pension plans to 401(k) style plans and losses in retirement savings during the Great Recession have forced many older Americans to stay in the workforce longer than they had intended. Finally, the federal Age Discrimination in Employment Act was amended in 1986 to abolish mandatory retirement in most occupations.

Characteristics of LI’s Senior Workers

Long Island has a more highly educated older population compared to the state and nation. For example, 36.0% of its population aged 65 and older have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 32.2% in New York State and 31.0% in the nation.

Highly educated older workers are also staying in the workforce – 44.6% of older workers on Long Island have a bachelor’s degree or higher. As a result, the annual earnings of households headed by someone aged 65 and older were substantially higher in the region compared with the state and nation. Mean earnings in Nassau County were $123,797 in 2023 and $97,246 in Suffolk County, compared to $89,230 in New York State and $74,836 in the nation.

Where Do LI Seniors Work?

Long Island’s working seniors are employed in a wide range of occupations. More than 43% are in management, professional, and related job titles, a somewhat higher proportion than for all workers. White-collar professions are less physically demanding, enabling workers to continue working at older ages. Within that group, 14% work in business and financial operations occupations. Nearly 15,000 are personal financial advisors accounting for 21% of the workforce in this field. Accountants and auditors, management analysts, and financial and investment analysts also have a significant share of workers aged 65 and older.

Outside of business and financial operations occupations, 9% of older workers are employed in management professions, which tend to require many years of experience. One in five property, real estate, and community association managers are aged 65 or older. Older workers also make up a large share of the legal profession, with 23% of lawyers aged 65 or older.

Nearly 30% of Long Island’s older workers are in sales and office occupations, which lend themselves well to flexible working arrangements and can be done on a part-time basis for those who want to be semi-retired. In fact, seven of the top 20 most common occupations for Long Islanders over the age of 65 are in sales.

More than 17,800 older workers are real estate sales agents, and another 5,400 are real estate brokers. They account for 26% of the workforce in both those occupations. More than 4,500 insurance agents on Long Island are aged 65 and over, representing an outsized 31% of total employment in the occupation. With 5,100 workers, older workers also make up a large share of retail sales positions.

Thousands of critical jobs that don’t require a bachelor’s degree are also filled by people at retirement age, including home health and personal care aides (7,700), building cleaning workers (5,100), secretaries and administrative assistants (5,000), passenger vehicle drivers (4,900), and laborers and material movers (3,500). Most of these jobs pay relatively low wages and don’t offer retirement plans forcing older workers to work for longer.

Conclusion

Understanding the occupational makeup of Long Island’s older workforce can help gauge the labor force effects of retiring baby boomers. The effect on the overall economy and certain industries will be substantial, creating a need for younger workers to fill the vacated jobs, many of which require relatively high levels of skills. Knowing which occupations will be in high demand can help plan regional education and training needs.

In November 2024, New York State’s seasonally adjusted private sector job count increased over the month by 11,900, or 0.1%, to 8,409,100. In addition, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in November 2024, while New York’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.2%.

Capital

Over the past year, the private sector job count in the Capital Region rose by 1,800, or 0.4%, to 441,300 in November 2024. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors: 

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