|
by Steven Koczak, Ph. D., Program Research Specialist and Kevin Jack, Deputy Director
Humanity has always organized our economic lives around the seasons. Economic activities that build civilizations (e.g., construction and agriculture) or destroy them (e.g., war), have always depended on the seasons.
Employment levels in many industries also demonstrate seasonal fluctuations, commonly referred to as “seasonality.” For example, construction sector employment tends to peak in the summer and reach its lowest level in the winter. Conversely, accounting and bookkeeping jobs tend to spike during the winter months with the onset of tax preparation season and bottom out during the summer.
Defining the Seasons
This article examines a select group of New York State’s “fall” (or autumn) industries — some expected and others not — that reach their peak employment level during the fourth quarter of the calendar year (Oct.-Dec.). Though fall ends on December 21, the vast majority of winter occurs within Quarter 1. Quarter 4 coincides with the fall of the leaves that lent the season its name, along with seasonal songs and holidays.
Fall Industries
This analysis utilizes statewide private sector jobs data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from 2013-23 (with 2020 excluded due to the pandemic). To be included in this analysis, an industry had to meet several criteria:
-
Experiences an average job gain of at least 10% between Quarter 3 (Jul.-Sep.) and Quarter 4 (Oct.-Dec.)
-
Typically reaches its peak quarterly employment level in Quarter 4
- Minimum statewide employment of 1,000 in Quarter 4 of 2023
The selected fall industries discussed here reflect the great economic diversity of New York State. In some instances, related industries have been grouped together to facilitate analysis.
Higher Education
Unsurprisingly, the three industries comprising the Higher Education group — Junior Colleges (NAICS 61121), Colleges and Universities (NAICS 61131) and Fine Arts Schools (NAICS 61161) — together account for the most employment of any fall group in New York State. Colleges and Universities were responsible for the bulk (over 90%) of employment in the Higher Education group. Over the 2013-23 study period, this industry group employed an average of 212,000 workers in Quarter 4. Over this 10-year timeframe, the Higher Education group experienced an average employment increase of 16.5% between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4.
E-commerce
Couriers (NAICS 49211) and Local Messengers and Local Delivery (NAICS 49221) are closely related, but distinct, industries. Couriers are engaged in providing intercity, local and/or international delivery of parcels and documents. Since our definition of fall incorporates the Christmas season, and Christmas has a noted and heavily emphasized gift-giving component, there will be a lot of delivery activity going on, hence work for couriers. Two well-known employers with a major presence in this industry are UPS and FedEx.
In contrast, Local Messenger and Local Delivery workers deliver small items within an urban area and are not part of an intercity courier network. Many firms in this industry are engaged in “last mile delivery,” which is the last step in the delivery process in which an item is sent out from a local warehouse for final delivery. Altogether, these two e-commerce-related industries have average employment of over 49,300 in Quarter 4 and see a typical jump of 21.0% between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4.
School and Employee Bus Transportation
Another fall industry with significant employment is private School and Employee Bus Transportation (NAICS 48541). This industry employed an average of 39,700 workers during Quarter 4 of the study period. Between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4, the job count in School and Employee Bus Transportation typically rises 38.7%.
Many public school districts employ their own school bus drivers and monitors, and those workers are not reflected in this job count. According to Staffing Patterns data, the most prominent occupation in this industry is School Bus Driver, and there are over 21,000 of them in New York State. According to various press reports, there is a perpetual shortage of school bus drivers in New York State and there has been for a number of years now.
Food Service Contractors
Food Service Contractors (NAICS 72231) represent another industry that experiences a strong percentage gain (+15.2%) in employment between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4. Firms in this industry are primarily engaged in providing food services at institutional, governmental, commercial or industrial locations. Much of the employment seasonality in this industry stems from colleges and universities that in recent years have been outsourcing their dining operations to these companies. Over the past decade, Quarter 4 employment has averaged over 39,500 in New York State.
Live Entertainment
This category includes four related industries — Theater Companies and Dinner Theaters (NAICS 71111), Dance Companies (NAICS 71112), Musical Groups and Artists (NAICS 71113) and Independent Artists, Writers and Performers (NAICS 71151) — that are all engaged in providing live entertainment. Together, industries in this category employed an average of over 27,300 workers in Quarter 4 and the job count typically rises by 18.4% from Quarter 3 to Quarter 4.
As was recently discussed in this newsletter, New York is synonymous with live theater. Live theater typically is an indoor activity, suited to the months we’re defining as fall. Broadway, the topic of the article linked to above, looms large in NAICS 71111. Aside from Broadway, NAICS 71111 in New York also incorporates the Metropolitan Opera. Their season typically begins in late September and lasts through late May, which means that their early shows coincide almost entirely with what we’re calling fall.
Regarding dance companies, in the words of the Census Bureau: “[t]his industry comprises companies, groups, or theaters primarily engaged in producing all types of live theatrical dance (e.g., ballet, contemporary dance, folk dance) presentations.” Beyond Broadway, New York is also home to the New York City Ballet, the Alvin Ailey Dance Company and the American Ballet Theatre.
Sports: Outdoor and Indoor
Although employment levels at Skiing Facilities (NAICS 71392) reach their maximum in Quarter 1, we’ve included this industry due to the dramatic percentage increase (+119.5%) in its job count occurring between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4. The average Quarter 4 employment level is just over 1,200, and the increase we see from Quarter 4 to Quarter 1 originates from a hiring spurt that begins leading into Quarter 4.
According to Dan Shorman of ski.com, New York State has more ski resorts than any other state. Travel & Leisure lists nine main ski resorts in New York State, and there is great diversity among them. Gore Mountain (the largest facility in New York), Whiteface Mountain and Belleayre Mountain are all government operations and aren’t included in this analysis. Privately owned ski facilities in New York State include HoliMont, Hunter Mountain, Windham Mountain Club and Bristol Mountain.
Another industry that thrives during New York’s fall season is Bowling Centers (NAICS 71395). On average, employment at bowling centers in New York State climbs by more than 18.4% to just under 3,900 in Quarter 4. That is no surprise since bowling is a fun indoor activity for the whole family. Fall is also the traditional start of the league bowling season, which is an important revenue source for this industry, often accounting for 50-60% of annual earnings for many bowling centers.
Many Fall Industries, Only One New York in Fall
Regardless of season, the primary economic characteristic of New York State is our great diversity. Every aspect of New York’s economic life reflects this characteristic, to one degree or another. Our fall industries reflect this too, to a degree that this article only can hint at. Clearly, there are many fall industries in New York, but only one New York in fall.
|
|
“Health care and social assistance remains a key sector in the WNY regional economy.”
by Timothy Glass, Labor Market Analyst, Western New York Region
The Western New York (WNY) regional economy continues to bounce back from the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2022 to 2023, the region’s average job count grew by 10,840, or 1.8%, to 614,460, per data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. A major contributor to this growth was the region’s health care and social assistance (HC&SA) sector, which saw its job count rise by 2,520, or 2.6%, to 99,620 in 2022-23.
Major Regional Employer
A principal driver behind the rising demand for workers in the health care and social assistance field in Western New York is the growing senior citizen population in the region’s five counties (Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie and Niagara). According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program, there were an estimated 286,365 people aged 65 and older living in Western New York in 2023. This group accounted for more than one in five (20.4%) members of the Western New York population last year. This figure is up sharply from 2010, when it stood at 15.8%.
Health care and social assistance (NAICS 62) accounted for the largest share of the region’s overall (public and private sectors) workforce in 2023, comprising 16.2% of all jobs in Western New York. In 2023, employers in the HC&SA sector paid out over $6.37 billion in total wages, while average wages in the sector were $64,030 — slightly above the region’s all-industry average of $61,470.
The HC&SA sector consists of four sub-sectors:
-
Ambulatory health care (NAICS 621)
-
Nursing and residential care (NAICS 623)
-
Social assistance (NAICS 624)
With 33,210 employees in 2023, ambulatory health care was the largest HC&SA sub-sector in WNY. This sub-sector consists of offices of physicians and dentists, diagnostic labs, outpatient care centers and home health care services. This sub-sector paid an average wage of $71,360 in 2023, the second highest among the four HC&SA sub-sectors.
Hospitals had the second largest concentration of HC&SA workers in the region, with overall employment of 26,740 in 2023. At $85,570, hospitals had the highest yearly wage among the various HC&SA sub-sectors in Western New York.
The nursing and residential care facilities sub-sector employed 21,960 workers in WNY in 2023. The annual average wage was $50,920, the third highest among HC&SA sub-sectors.
In 2023, social assistance employed 17,720 workers in Western New York. Firms within this sub-sector provide such services as individual and family services, vocational rehabilitation and child day care. At $34,030, social assistance paid the lowest annual wage among the four HC&SA sub-sectors.
In June 2024, the State of New York reached an agreement with Kaleida Health and Brooks-TLC Hospital System, Inc. to build a new hospital in the Village of Fredonia (Chautauqua County). The new project will be supported with $74 million from the state that was originally awarded about eight years ago. The proposed new hospital, which will be roughly half the size of Brooks-TLC’s existing hospital in Dunkirk (Chautauqua County), is expected to open within three years of receiving approval from the State Department of Health.
One of the region’s largest health care providers, Evergreen Health, is moving forward with plans for a new three-story medical office building in the City of Buffalo’s Kensington-Bailey neighborhood (Erie County) as it works to expand its existing services in the East Side community. The $14 million project would replace an existing medical facility that it has occupied since 2018.
Kaleida Health has started construction on a new multi-specialty practice site in Lockport (Niagara County), with plans for opening in early 2025. The project will create a new Northtowns service hub to serve patients from eastern Niagara County and northern Erie County communities.
Health care and social assistance remains a key sector in the WNY regional economy. Moreover, the outlook for the health care and social assistance sector in Western New York looks bright.
This positive outlook is supported by long-term industry projections prepared by the New York State Department of Labor. Employment in WNY’s HC&SA sector is expected to grow by more than 25,000, or 24.5%, in 2020-30. Looking at sub-sectors within the HC&SA sector, employment in social assistance is projected to grow at the fastest rate — 41.7% — over the 10-year period. However, ambulatory health care services is the sub-sector expected to add the most net jobs (+8,360) from 2020 to 2030.
|
|
 In July 2024, New York State’s seasonally adjusted private sector job count increased over the month by 10,800, or 0.1%, to 8,401,600. In addition, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3% in July 2024, while New York’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate held steady at 61.3%.
Capital
Over the past year, the private sector job count in the Capital Region rose by 5,600, or 1.3%, to 449,100 in July 2024. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+5,900)
- Leisure and hospitality (+3,400)
Job losses were greatest in the following sectors:
- Professional and business services (-1,300)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (-1,100)
- Information (-600)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (-400)
Central NY
The number of private sector jobs in the Syracuse metro area increased over the past year by 5,100, or 2.0%, to 261,900 in July 2024. The largest job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+2,400)
- Leisure and hospitality (+1,500)
- Professional and business services (+800)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (+200)
- Other services (+200)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (+200)
The largest job loss occurred in the following sector:
Finger Lakes
From July 2023 to July 2024, the number of private sector jobs in the Rochester metro area rose by 7,900, or 1.8%, to 457,900. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+6,000)
- Leisure and hospitality (+2,900)
- Other services (+400)
- Manufacturing (+200)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (+200)
The largest job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- Professional and business services (-1,100)
- Information (-500)
Hudson Valley
Over the past year, the number of private sector jobs in the Hudson Valley grew by 13,200, or 1.6%, to 835,900 in July 2024. Job gains were greatest in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+11,400)
- Other services (+2,800)
- Leisure and hospitality (+1,200)
- Professional and business services (+700)
- Financial activities (+500)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- Natural resources, mining and construction (-3,300)
- Information (-300)
Long Island
For the year ending July 2024, private sector jobs on Long Island increased by 21,100, or 1.8%, to 1,192,100. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+10,800)
- Leisure and hospitality (+9,400)
- Other services (+2,400)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (+1,900)
- Manufacturing (+700)
Job losses were greatest in the following sectors:
- Professional and business services (-2,100)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (-1,600)
Mohawk Valley
For the 12-month period ending July 2024, the number of private sector jobs in the Mohawk Valley region increased by 2,400, or 1.7%, to 145,300. The following sectors had the largest over-the-year employment gains:
- Education and health services (+1,900)
- Leisure and hospitality (+200)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (+200)
Job losses occurred in the following sector:
New York City
The private sector job count in New York City rose over the past year by 109,700, or 2.7%, to 4,186,400 in July 2024. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+97,500)
- Leisure and hospitality (+23,500)
- Professional and business services (+7,000)
- Other services (+5,400)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (+1,200)
Job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- Information (-14,700)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (-9,100)
- Financial activities (-1,100)
North Country
The number of private sector jobs in the North Country region rose over the year by 100, or 0.1%, to 112,900 in July 2024. Gains were greatest in the following sector:
- Education and health services (+700)
The greatest job losses occurred in the following sectors:
- Financial activities (-300)
- Information (-200)
- Leisure and hospitality (-200)
Southern Tier
For the 12-month period ending July 2024, the number of private sector jobs in the Southern Tier increased by 1,700, or 0.8%, to 217,400. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+1,800)
- Leisure and hospitality (+1,100)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (+500)
Job losses were greatest in the following sectors:
- Professional and business services (-700)
- Manufacturing (-400)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (-400)
Western NY
Over the past 12 months, the private sector job count in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls metro area rose by 5,300, or 1.1%, to 474,500 in July 2024. Job gains occurred in the following sectors:
- Education and health services (+4,700)
- Leisure and hospitality (+2,000)
- Manufacturing (+600)
- Financial activities (+500)
- Natural resources, mining and construction (+500)
- Other services (+500)
Job losses were greatest in the following sectors:
- Professional and business services (-1,800)
- Trade, transportation and utilities (-1,500)
|
|
|
Click the button below to become a subscriber to Employment in New York State
|
|
|
|
|
