August 2023 Issue of the Employment in New York State Newsletter

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by Kevin Jack, Deputy Director

“To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.”

 

U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936

More than 9.1 million New Yorkers, spanning six distinct generations, were at work in 2022. Here, we combine generation definitions from the Pew Research Center (PRC) with estimates tabulated from Current Population Survey (CPS) public-use microdata files to take a “generational snapshot” of New York’s workforce. We look at the make-up of workers in 2002, 2012 and 2022. Per CPS procedures, data are only presented for persons at least 16 years of age, as this is the minimum age to be counted as part of the workforce for statistical purposes.

Division by generations gives us deeper insights into the workforce, since each cohort has its own distinct characteristics, values and attitudes toward work, based on shared life experiences. Demographers look at key events and the technological, economic and social shifts that help to shape each generation’s view of the world.

The six generations — going from youngest to oldest — currently working and their birth years are summarized below:

• Gen Z (1997-2012): This is the youngest group working today and is the first generation to have grown up in an entirely “post-digital” era. Some of the factors shaping Gen Z’s outlook include the rise of social networking, growing concern for social issues, climate change, gun violence and the COVID-19 pandemic and the related rise of remote work.
  
  
• Millennials (1981-1996): Also known as Gen Y, they came of age during the popularization of the Internet and the rise of global terrorism as a major force in world politics. Many consider the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the 2001 World Trade Center attacks and the “Great Recession” of 2007-09 among the defining events for this group.
  
  
• Gen X (1965-1980): Due to a sharp drop in fertility rates in the late 1960s and 1970s, this group is much smaller than the older Baby Boomers or younger Millennials. The experience of being a “baby bust” cohort has powerfully shaped Gen X’s outlook and its perception of its place in the world. Some defining moments for Gen X include the two global energy crises of the 1970s and the associated economic downturns, the end of the Cold War and the first Gulf War.
  
  
• Baby Boomers (1946-1964): For many Boomers, work was a greater priority than personal life. Events shaping this group include the Kennedy and King assassinations, the Apollo 11 moon landing, the African American civil rights movement and the Vietnam War.
  
  
• Silent Generation (1928-1945)/Greatest Generation (born before 1928): Defining moments for this combined generational cohort include the Great Depression, World War II and the Korean War. The CPS takes extra steps to protect the confidentiality of respondents starting at age 80, so current data for the Greatest Generation are not available separately.

While Pew has not yet named the generation coming immediately after Gen Z, some analysts have suggested “Gen Alpha” for this cohort born after 2012. The children of Millennial parents and often the younger siblings of Gen Zers, Gen Alphas have adopted technologies like smartphones and social media at an even faster pace than Gen Z. In addition, Gen Alphas are more racially diverse than any prior generation. As all members of this group were less than 16 years of age in 2022, they were too young to work.

Generations Working in NYS

CPS data show us the generational composition of the workforce, both as absolute numbers and as a percent of the overall workforce. This was the generational composition of New York State’s workforce in 2022 (in descending size order):

• Millennials (ages 26-41), 3.3 million (36.7%)
• Gen X (ages 42-57), 2.9 million (31.7%)
• Baby Boomers (ages 58-76), 1.7 million (18.3%)
• Gen Z (ages 16-25), 1.1 million (12.4%)
• Silent/Greatest (ages 77+), 0.08 million (0.9%)

While Millennials were the largest generation working in New York State as of 2022, they were actually the third largest group in the workforce 10 years earlier, in 2012. The generational composition of the state’s workforce in 2012 was as follows:

• Baby Boomers (ages 48-66), 3.1 million (35.2%)
• Gen X (ages 32-47), 2.9 million (33.4%)
• Millennials (ages 16-31), 2.4 million (27.9%)
• Silent/Greatest (ages 67+), 0.3 million (3.6%)

In 2002, Baby Boomers, then aged 38-56, were the most common generation working in New York, accounting for almost half of workers in the state. The generational composition of the state’s workforce in 2002 was as follows:

• Baby Boomers (ages 38-56), 3.9 million (46.2%)
• Gen X (ages 22-37), 2.9 million (34.3%)
• Silent/Greatest (ages 57+), 1.0 million (12.1%)
• Millennials (ages 16-21), 0.6 million (7.4%)

E-P Ratios

The employment-population (E-P) ratio is a metric used by many labor economists to compare the attachment levels of different demographic groups to the workforce. The E-P ratio represents the proportion of a particular group that is employed, out of the total population of that group. It is a useful and commonly used labor market indicator since it is easy to interpret. Moreover, it can be used to make meaningful comparisons across time and between groups with different population sizes.

Generally speaking, E-P ratios tend to peak among workers aged 25-54, otherwise known as “prime-age workers.” This 29-year age span roughly corresponds with today’s Millennial (ages 26-41) and Gen X (ages 42-57) generations.

In New York, E-P ratios varied widely across the generations working in the state in 2022. As expected, E-P ratios were highest among Millennials (80.4%) and Gen Xers (75.7%). The E-P ratio for those Gen Zers who were of working age (16-25 years old) was 46.0% in 2022, which edged out the rate for Baby Boomers, which was 40.1%.

Interestingly, 6.8% of members of the combined Silent/Greatest generation (age 77+) worked in New York State in 2022. That works out to about 1 out of every 15 members of this age group who still collected a paycheck last year.

Educational Attainment

The CPS provides a wealth of data on worker characteristics, including educational attainment. Among all workers aged 25+ in New York State, just over one-half (51.9%) possessed at least a bachelor’s degree in 2022. This percentage was up significantly from 2002 (36.5%) and 2012 (41.9%) levels.

Interestingly, among the various generations of working New Yorkers in 2022, the combined Silent/Greatest generation (age 77+) had the highest proportion of members (60.6%) with at least a bachelor’s degree. This indicates that the oldest working New Yorkers have the highest level of educational attainment. Closely following behind the Silent/Greatest generation in terms of educational attainment were Gen Z, who had the second highest proportion (58.9%) of working members with at least a four-year degree in 2022.

Two generational groups had less than 50% of their working members possessing at least a bachelor’s degree in 2022 — Gen X (49.0%) and Baby Boomers (46.2%). While these two groups had below-average rates of educational attainment in 2022, these levels represented significant advancements from 2012 levels, when only 42.9% of working Gen Xers and 36.8% of employed Baby Boomers possessed a four-year degree. The comparable figures for 2002 were 38.3% for Gen X and 36.3% for Baby Boomers.

Summing Up

Looking at differences in workforce data by generation helps us to better understand the broader labor market. While each generation has been influenced by a unique set of factors, they all continue to contribute to, and make a difference in, New York State. To learn more about the generations working in New York, click here.

by Brion Acton, Labor Market Analyst, Mohawk Valley Region

“Since 2020, the Mohawk Valley's labor market has seen broad-based growth." 

Transition to a New Normal

Since 2020, the Mohawk Valley’s labor market has seen broad-based growth, with 14 of 19 industry sectors expanding as the region’s workers and employers adjust to the ‘new normal’ post-COVID era. From 2020 to 2022, overall private sector employment grew by 5,590, or 4.2%. Accommodation and food services (+2,170), manufacturing (+1,700), transportation and warehousing (+1,160) and retail trade (+1,070) saw the greatest job gains. In contrast, health care and social assistance (-2,320) and finance and insurance (-550) lost jobs over the same period.

In 2022, the region’s average private sector salary was $50,570, up 10% since 2020. Almost all industry sectors experienced wage growth over this period. The sharpest gains were in management (+21.6%), administrative and waste services (+17.8%), health care and social assistance (+17.5%) and wholesale trade (+16.0%). Educational services (-12.2%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (-6.2%) were the only sectors to see wage declines as lower-paid service workers began to re-enter the labor market.

While the Mohawk Valley has made significant progress, the region’s private sector job count in 2022 was 8,740, or 5.9%, below 2019’s pre-pandemic level. Transportation and warehousing (+680), educational services (+270), agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (+230) and retail trade (+90) all surpassed their 2019 employment levels. For the balance of this article, we focus on the transportation and warehousing (T&W) sector due to its growing importance in the region.

Adapting to Change

Employment in the T&W sector has been growing in the region for the past 20 years, expanding by almost 50% since 2002. The region’s central location, access to major highways and available workforce have been attractive to a variety of major corporations that have built distribution centers in the Mohawk Valley, including Amazon, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Orgill, Pepsi, Target, Tractor Supply and Walmart. Long-term industry projections prepared by the State Labor Department show T&W employment in the region is expected to grow by over 37% in 2020-30.

COVID-19’s impact on distribution channels has accelerated growth in the T&W sector. Items that were traditionally purchased at brick-and-mortar stores are increasingly being bought online and delivered directly to consumers. As a result, the warehousing and storage industry (+810) has been the main driver of job growth in the T&W sector over the last two years. This growth has been fueled by the recent opening of Amazon delivery centers in Amsterdam (Montgomery County) and Frankfort (Herkimer County), and an Orgill warehouse in Rome (Oneida County). In 2022, warehousing and storage workers had an average annual salary of $54,970, about 9% greater than the regional average.   Data from Lightcast, a data analytics firm, show that the region’s concentration of warehousing and storage workers is 2.4 times higher than the national average. This suggests that warehousing and storage is an export-oriented industry in the Mohawk Valley, and that it is well positioned to compete with other regions. The industry’s importance should grow as distribution centers planned for Montgomery and Schoharie counties are expected to create 450 new jobs over the coming years.

Outlook

The Mohawk Valley region has emerged from the pandemic leaner and more efficient as consumers, workers and employers adapt to the changing economic landscape. With investments being made across many industry sectors throughout the region, positive changes are on the horizon.