New Year, New Data
The first set of Local Look blogs of the new year use new data to explore new topics of interest across the state. Looking at newly released 2022 American Community Survey data, the Twin Cities blog examines educational attainment, while both Southeast and Southwest focus on housing affordability and availability. Central Minnesota highlights the challenges with child care availability, while Northwest explains the drop in labor force participation partly due to care giving. Finally, Northeast Minnesota explores Business Employment Dynamics and job churn. For more local information, please reach out to your Regional Analyst!
At the very end of 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau released updated estimates through the American Community Survey (ACS). According to the new 2022 5-year estimates, the 7-County Metro Area had a total population of 2,422,397 people who were 18 years of age and older. Of this population, more than nine out of ten (93.3%) had a high school diploma/equivalent or more. This was compared to 93.0% for Minnesota and 89.0% for the United States. Nearly three-quarters (73.3%) of the Metro Area's population 18 years of age and older had some level of postsecondary education.
One of the significant challenges in Minnesota is the shortage of qualified child care professionals. The demand for child care services often outstrips the availability of trained caregivers, making it challenging for parents to secure reliable and high-quality care for their children. This shortage has been exacerbated by factors such as low wages for child care workers and the cost of obtaining the necessary certifications and education. While child care workers are in high demand in Central Minnesota, employment projections actually show a decline in jobs through 2030 by 2.6%. The projected decline isn't necessarily a reflection of demand, in fact it's likely that demand for child care workers will continue for the foreseeable future; it's more a reflection of the challenge for the industry to grow.
Behind the headline numbers detailing the number of jobs lost or gained is a more nuanced story. Under the surface of net employment change, which simply measures the total count of jobs from one period to another, there are many more jobs that are lost and gained. Businesses open and close and expand and contract each year, quarter, and month. These changes are also important, telling us more about the dynamics of the economy and workforce.
Data show that overall, the pandemic-induced workforce decline in Northwest Minnesota was concentrated in the age 25 to 64 year age groups. These are the age groups most likely to be caring for kids, grandkids, and elderly parents. No doubt, many males left the workforce for caregiving as well, but the stark change in trend in the female shares of the workforce in these ages serve to isolate caregiving as the primary pandemic impact on the workforce.
In Southeast Minnesota, the housing market is characterized by high demand, with renters particularly facing considerable financial challenges. While homeowners generally have a lower cost burden, disparities exist across counties. These challenges highlight the need for targeted housing policies to improve affordability and support renters and homeowners, ensuring regional economic stability and growth.
According to 2022 American Community Survey estimates, the median value of owner-occupied housing units rose to $286,800 in Minnesota, compared to $281,900 in the U.S. Every county in Minnesota saw at least a 10% rise in median housing value from 2017 to 2022, with rapid gains spread across the state. Southwest Minnesota is home to relatively affordable housing units, with 16 of the 23 counties in the region ranking in the bottom 30 of the 87 counties in the state for estimated median value of housing units. Southwest Minnesota reported the lowest basic needs cost of living for a typical 3-person household in the state, with housing being one of the major costs. Increasing costs will have an impact on affordability moving forward, but the region still boasts lower cost housing than other regions.
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