Idaho expected to see annual employment growth over national average through 2034
Idaho’s labor market is expected to continue its significant expansion through the end of the decade, with a projected employment growth rate of 1.3% per year and a total employment count reaching 1,028,760 by 2034. These new long-term employment projections are estimates from the Idaho Department of Labor and cover the period from 2024-2034.
Idaho’s long-term projected growth rate of 1.3% is significantly higher than the national forecast. The most recent projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipate a national growth rate of approximately 0.3% annually — less than one fourth of the projected growth rate for Idaho.
These projections are consistent with Idaho’s record of strong job creation in recent years, including rapid growth from 2010-2020, and an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic that was among the strongest in the nation.
As seen in Figure 1 below, Idaho has consistently been a leader in job growth among the states, with its growth rate exceeding the national rate 11 years in a row, starting in 2011.
Figure 1. Annual employment growth, Idaho and U.S., 2010-2034
 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor
The state’s strong growth projections are partly based on Idaho’s relatively high population growth. With population gains mostly stagnant across the country, individual states like Idaho are finding success by attracting new residents from other, higher-cost states.
From 2010-2020, Idaho ranked second behind Utah in population growth. For the rest of the coming decade, the department projects population growth to remain high for Idaho, driving a significant demand in a variety of sectors, especially new home construction, healthcare and consumer services.
Of Idaho’s top 50 jobs, more than half are in either construction or healthcare (14 jobs each). The Construction and Extraction occupational group has the highest projected growth, with more than 13,000 new jobs expected by 2034. Similarly, the Healthcare Support occupational group is projected to increase by 12,500 new jobs.
While occupational projections estimate the staffing requirements of each industry, industry projections forecast the composition of Idaho’s economy by business sector (outlined in Figure 2 below).
Just like with occupational growth, the Healthcare and Social Assistance industry is expected to experience one of the greatest gains in employment (+34,000) and is projected to grow the fastest through 2034, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%. This is due to the state’s continued aging population trend.
Idaho’s Construction industry is also forecasted to see strong employment growth (+14,700) as a result of an increasing population reducing inventory, raising prices and creating a high demand for new building construction.
An ongoing societal shift from brick-and-mortar retail to e-commerce is expected to drive job gains away from Retail Trade (+0.7% per year) toward Transportation and Warehousing (+1.6% per year), which includes fulfillment centers and delivery services. While Retail Trade is traditionally a far larger sector of the economy, employment growth in Transportation and Warehousing jobs is projected to be much faster by percentage growth.
Strong gains in Idaho’s Manufacturing jobs are also expected to continue, with roughly 8,500 new jobs expected by 2034. Within this large and diverse sector, nearly half the job growth is expected in two specific industries of high importance — Food Manufacturing (+3,900 jobs) and Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (+1,250 jobs).
Figure 2: Idaho industry projections, 2024-2034
 Source: Idaho Department of Labor
For more information, visit the Idaho Department of Labor’s occupational and industry projections webpage.
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